Abstract
Climate warming is causing an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves and extreme precipitation events, posing a threat to both socioeconomic stability and human lives. In 2022, five record-breaking heatwaves and floods occurred, it is suggested a new concurrent extreme feature in the study, which is linked to the three Poles warming and ice/snow melting. The independent and synergistic effect of the three Poles warming has led to the poleward movement of westerly jet streams and amplified Rossby waves, as well as the expansion of subtropical highs in both poleward and zonal directions. Consequently, these have intensified heatwaves in the mid-high latitudes and extreme precipitation events in the Asian regions, combined with a southward displacement and weakening of the inter-hemispheric Asian summer monsoon circulations, which are response to poleward of the mid-latitude and subtropical circulations and the hydrothermal effects of the three Poles. This study highlights the significance of three Poles warming in driving amplified concurrent extremes across tropical and extratropical regions, particularly in 2022. These findings provide valuable insights into the role of snow/ice melting and related hydrothermal factors in global climate predictions and disaster prevention efforts.
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Introduction
Intensified weather extremes, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall, have become more frequent in the 21st century1,2, and have severe impacts on human lives, ecological environment3,4,5, economic activities6,7,8,9,10, agricultural production and food security11. These extremes are not only occurring more frequently but also exhibiting a spatial and temporal associations across global regions12, and these associations indicate that there may be common circulation patterns driving these concurrent extremes. Although there have been various nonstationary and inhomogeneous extreme events since 200013,14, it is projected that concurrent extremes will become more frequent in the future due to anthropogenic forcing. Examples of recent concurrent extremes include heavy precipitation extremes in Europe and the Zhengzhou subway flood in China in July 20212, drought and forest fires in western America and heavy floods in eastern America. In 2022, there were five record-breaking summer extremes that occurred from late spring to summer in the inter-hemisphere. The occurrence of these concurrent extremes raises questions about association mechanisms and forcing sources, it is important for forecasting and implementing global defense strategies and mitigation measures.
Anthropogenic forcing, resulting from human activities, contributes to the amplification of both the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation15. High temperatures are mainly governed by changes in mean climate, while heavy precipitation events are influenced by the trends of climate variability16. Anthropogenic forcing affects concurrent temperature and precipitation extremes through multiple pathways, those include the rising of non-uniform local radiance and increased atmospheric water vapor content16,17, as well as changes in atmospheric circulations such as anomalies of weakened storm tracks, shifted and double jet streams, amplified quasi-stationary waves and associated energy propagation in the mid-high latitudes18,19,20. Additionally, low-latitude circulations such as the Walker circulation, Hadley circulation, and monsoon circulations drive tropical and interhemispheric temperature and precipitation extreme concurrence21. Despite these influences, anthropogenic forcing is not directly applicable to annual to seasonal extreme predictions and disaster warnings due to differences in timescales.
Anthropogenic forcing leads to non-uniform changes in temperature across different regions. This means that some areas, like land and sea surfaces, may experience greater warming than others. Variations in sea surface temperatures(SSTs) in the tropical Indo-Pacific and North Atlantic can contribute to heatwaves in eastern China22; SST related El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, can drive extreme weather events in distant regions via teleconnections and atmospheric variability23. The feedback between local soil moisture and temperature plays a significant role in the occurrence of extreme heatwaves and droughts in Europe, eastern China and North America. In summer of 2022, this feedback accounted for 42% of extreme heatwaves and droughts in the Yangtze River in China and other regions22,24,25. Urban land also experience intensified heatwaves and typhoon floods due to the urban heat island effect, where cities retain more heat than surrounding rural areas26. Land processes over Europe and the Tibet Plateau with high diabatic heating can generate anomalies in eddies and transient waves27, which can then propagate downstream and affect the occurrence of heatwaves and extreme precipitation events in the downstream regions.
The accelerated warming in the Earth’s three Poles, namely the Arctic, Antarctica and the Tibet Plateau28, has significant implications for global climate. The Arctic amplification(AA) refers to the Arctic region warming at a rate of two to four times faster than the global average29,30,31,32. The Tibet Plateau, located at high altitude, is also experiencing warming that is more than twice the global average33 following by the West Antarctica region. The warming trends of these three cryosphere regions have implications for regional and global climate patterns due to ice and snow-albedo feedback and snow-hydrological effect. The cryosphere, which includes ice caps, glaciers and sea ice, plays a crucial role in regulating Earth’s climate. Because cryosphere properties have high surface albedo, thermal emissivity, and insulating properties, the melting of the cryosphere due to warming contributes to extreme sea-level rise, influx of water into the oceans, alters the surface albedo (reflectivity), finally affects the hydrological cycle, and has consequences for the global climate system34,35,36.
The spring AA has been found to have significant impacts on the Earth’s climate system. It reduces the snow- and ice-albedo feedback and sunlight back into space37, it also affects cloud formation, surface net radiative processes, and turbulent processes. These changes further amplify the warming effect and contribute to the overall increase in temperatures38. Arctic snow/ice loss and AA leads to the slowing westerly jet streams and the formation of double jet streams39. These changes favor the amplification of planetary waves that can influence weather patterns40,41,42,43, related energy propagation could lead to persistent flood-prone rainstorms landscapes and blocking-like heatwaves44. The presence of snow cover on the Tibet Plateau modulates East Asian precipitation through Asian summer monsoon and westerly circulations21,45, thereby modulates Eurasian heatwaves. The melting of snow/ice in Antarctica could impact northern hemisphere climate through the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and inter-hemispheric Asian monsoon circulations46,47,48.
However, there is lack of materials focusing on the concurrent occurrence of heatwave and precipitation extremes, particularly with regards to the role of ice and snow melting. This is particularly significant in the Earth’s three Poles, where water phase changes are prominent, however, the impact of the three Poles on concurrent weather extremes remains unexplored. Investigating this aspect could help to identify the dominant factors and bridge the gap in understanding the physical processes through which anthropogenic forcing affects concurrent extremes. This study aims to investigate and identify the concurrent features of record-breaking heatwaves and precipitation extremes in 2022. Additionally, we will analyze significant anomalies in ice phase changes in the three Poles and explore their independent, coupling and synergistic effects on the extremes in 2022. This research aims to provide valuable insights and references for predicting such events on a seasonal timescale.
Results
Extreme precipitation and heatwaves in 2022
Figure 1 shows spatial distribution of air temperature anomaly and extreme precipitation in northern hemisphere in June-July-August(JJA) in 2022, the positive temperature anomalies beyond 3 °C occurred in the Yangtze River in eastern China, western Europe, western America, eastern Europe and eastern Siberia. Which could reveal durative heatwave events in July-August (JA) in the Yangtze River in eastern China and western Europe, and western America in June-July(JJ), those severe threaten ecosystem and human life. Beside temperature extremes, there are three record-breaking heavy precipitation extremes occurred in 2022, including Pakistan flood in JJA, South China flood in May 21-June 21, Korean flood in August 7-11 and precipitation extremes in JJA in northeast China. In addition, there are South African flood in April 11-12, Brazil flood in May 29-June 1 in southern hemisphere. These precipitation extreme events just located in those negative anomaly regions of temperature. These heatwaves and precipitation extremes occurred in the whole summer, although extreme events are general nonstationary11 and inhomogeneity12. The question is why there are so many extremes? Are there any necessary association?
Temperature anomalies are in JA in upper panel, ① precipitation in PK in JJA, ② precipitation in SC from May 21st to June 21st, ③ precipitation in NEA in JJ.
It is projected that excess 50 °C extremes occur around Mediterranean for 1–2 months by 210049, UK record was set at 40.3 °C50. Heatwaves are related to three physical processes, including temperature advection, adiabatic descending compression51 and diabatic heating through surface sensible heat fluxes, turbulent and convective mixing52,53,54. These processes can vary in different regions, such as diabatic heating plays a more significant role than adiabatic heating in the west of North America55, both are related to non-local and local heatwaves. It is important to determine if these processes were presented during the heatwaves observed in 2022.
Similarly, precipitation extremes are influenced by rising atmospheric water vapor content1,2 and dynamical processes16. It is important to assess whether these processes were evident during the record-breaking heavy precipitation events in 2022. Additionally, it is crucial to understand the linkage between heatwaves and precipitation extremes and how they may be interconnected. Studying the physical processes behind these extremes can help to identify the association between different types of extremes and improve disaster predictions. By understanding the mechanisms driving these events, we can better anticipate and mitigate their impacts on ecosystems and human lives.
Hydro-thermal characters of three Poles in 2022
Referring to the extremes observed in 2022, we have defined a temperature co-occurring index (TCI) to display the spatial distribution of extremes (see method). The time series of TCI shown in Fig. 2 indicates an increasing and amplified trend, with the highest value occurring in 2022. This suggests a strong co-occurring and frequent extreme events. According to high TCI, co-occurring extreme events also occurred in 2003, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2018 and 2022. The decrease in albedo in the Arctic and Tibet Plateau after 2000 is a significant finding (Figure omitted), with albedo beyond -0.1 deviation in those high TCI years. It is documented that many record-breaking extremes occurred in those years, such as heatwaves in China and Europe in 2018, the heatwaves in East Asia in 2003, global high temperature in 2013, and the frequent extreme events in 2010, these could have been influenced by snow-ice-melting and feedback etc. Such responses remind us the causal association between snow-ice-albedo feedback and extremes of temperature and precipitation.
a, b is regressed 2-m air temperature in AMJ in Arctic and Antarctic to TCI (d) respectively, c is regressed 0–10 cm soil moisture in Tibet Plateau to TCI, a1, b1 is anomalies of 2-m air temperature in Arctic and Antarctic in AMJ in 2022, c1 is anomaly of 0–10 cm soil moisture in Tibet Plateau in MJ in 2022, d1 is the time series of standardized 2-m air temperature and soil moisture in the selected regions of three Poles, the representation years of high TCI are marked in red triangle.
To explore the high TCI related forcing, we conducted a regression analysis of surface air temperature and soil moisture with TCI. The results demonstrate a significant increase temperature in the Arctic and Antarctic regions in April-May-June (AMJ), as well as significant soil moisture over the Tibet Plateau in April-May (AM) (Fig. 2a-c). These findings suggest an association between extremes and hydro-thermal anomalies in the Arctic, Antarctic, and Tibet Plateau, referring to both significant relationship with TCI and hydro-thermal anomalies in 2022, the significant key regions are plotted in Fig. 2.
Furthermore, the anomalous air temperature and soil moisture in 2022 (Fig. 2e-h) reveals significant warming in the key regions of Arctic and Antarctic during late spring and summer in 2022, with the air temperature anomaly exceeding 4 °C in AMJ. Additionally, the Antarctic warming anomaly in AMJ reaches a higher record since 1979, contributing to sea-level rise56. It is suggested that global warming may push the Antarctic ice beyond a stability threshold during the twenty-first century46,57,58. Under the strongest forcing scenario of high pathway SSP5-8.5, ice-free areas in the Antarctic Peninsula are projected to expand by 25% by 210059.
Comparing, the positive temperature anomaly is more pronounced in the eastern hemisphere in both the Arctic and Antarctic, indicating a consistent warming anomaly that amplifies bipolar ice/snow melting. Moreover, this warming anomaly is accompanied by high snowmelt and rising soil moisture in MJ in the Tibet Plateau, reaching record-breaking values since 1979. This anomaly aligns with the high snowfall and snow cover observed by the FY satellite from winter to April. These abnormal hydrothermal conditions have the potential to alter atmospheric circulation patterns, subsequently impacting lag weather and climate in East Asia and increasing the frequency of heatwaves in Europe21,45.
To find the possible bridge and memory of three Poles warming effect on lag weather and climate, the land surface parameters such as skin temperature and soil moisture are investigated, which is close related to ice loss, snowmelt and precipitation anomaly. Anomalous skin temperature over Arctic region and Tibet Plateau are clear; however, because Antarctic is covered by ice and snow, ice/snow loss just can be seen from the edge of Antarctic Peninsula from western to eastern hemisphere (Figure omitted), which modulates the high-latitude SST and vertical thermal flux that could memorize Antarctica warming and lag effect on remote climate, and Antarctic ice/snow loss is suggested to associate with Asian-Australian monsoon60,61 and the bipolar seesaw via AMOC62.
Extreme concurrence and association with hydro-thermal in the three Poles
TCI express the association of anomalous temperature over those extreme regions, to further investigate the relationship between temperature extreme events and hydro-thermal in the three Poles (Arctic, Antarctic, and Tibet Plateau), we conducted a correlation analysis. We calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between heatwaves and precipitation extremes, as well as the relationship of them with 2-m air temperature, skin temperature, and soil moisture in these regions (Fig. 3). The analysis revealed significant correlations between heatwaves and precipitation extremes in the specific regions (inner box). Precipitation extremes in Pakistan, South China, and northeast China showed significant associations with heatwaves over the Yangtze River, western Europe, and the west of North America. It suggests that these concurrent extreme events not only had footprints in the past 40 years, but also have been amplified in 2022. All these extremes are positively correlated to hydro-thermal factors and negatively correlated to albedo in the three Poles. In addition, there are interaction between hydro-thermal factors in the three Poles (Fig. 3), these relationships enlighten us the association between hydro-thermal anomaly in the three Poles and concurrent extremes.
(The stars mark the 95% significant confidence level of pearson correlation, and the double stars also mark the emphasis relations in the study. The triangle in lower right plot marks extremes concurrence).
Concurrent extremes have been suggested to related to anthropogenic forcing63, which dominants the non-uniform thermal, internal dynamical processes and water vapor content that leading to large climatic variability and extremes52,64,65. According to circulation anomalies in 2022 showed in Supplementary Figure 1 and previous researches, extremes related circulations include poleward and amplified westerly Rossby wave and westerly jet stream, poleward and longitudinal extending in subtropical high, southward and weakened Asian monsoon circulations etc., the correlations of extremes with circulation factors and hydro-thermal factors over the three Poles are showed in Supplementary Fig. 2.
The intensity of South Asia High (SAH21) showed significant associations with all heatwaves and precipitation extremes, indicating the potential role of thermal conditions over the Tibet Plateau and condensation heating associated with the South Asian monsoon in maintaining the SAH. The SAH also modulates the circum-global teleconnection(CGT) and favors the west-extending of the West Pacific Subtropical high (WPSH), which contributes to precipitation extremes in northeast China in July and August(JA) and South China in MJ, northward WPSH contributes to heatwaves in the Yangtze River region. Meridional shift in the subtropical circulations and the mid-latitude waves correspond to subtropical jet streams, including the East Asian-Pacific jet stream (EAPJS) and North African jet stream (NAJS).
The European heatwave was found to be less correlated with the east-extending of the North Africa subtropical high (ASH), while the poleward extending of the ASH was associated with precipitation extremes in northeast China, and eastward extending of ASH favors for precipitation extremes in Pakistan and South China. The intensity of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was found to be positively related to precipitation extremes in South China and northeast China, and negatively related to heatwaves in the Yangtze River region. The ASM and Australia monsoon evolution are mainly controlled by the pressure gradient between the Mascarene High (MH) in the southern hemisphere and the Indian Low66, southward MH contributes to heatwaves in the Yangtze River region, which mainly affects the position of southward the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that is associated with the ascending branch of the Hadley Cell. The meridional movement of the MH and Indian Low67 could be exhibited by the meridional difference of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) that is associated with ASM location anomalies. Southward MH leads to weak ASM and southward ITCZ.
These findings also indicate that above circulation factors correspond to hydro-thermal anomalies in the three Poles. Arctic warming, driving poleward westerly jet stream and amplified Rossby waves in the northern hemisphere, leads to poleward subtropical high pressure systems and contributes to concurrent extremes in the mid-latitudes18. Additionally, there is a two-way interaction between Arctic sea ice loss and tropical circulations, the loss of Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Kara Sea, influences the ASM circulation47,68; conversely, rainfall related condensation heating can cause Canadian Arctic sea ice loss69,70, while the Arctic warming triggered by Antarctic warming leads to increased inter-hemispheric temperature gradient and cross-equatorial heat transport60,71. This in turn affects the Indian low and weakens the Asian monsoon system. Soil moisture and albedo over the Tibet Plateau are closely related to precipitation extremes in Pakistan, South China, and heatwaves in the Yangtze River region, eastern Europe and eastern Siberia. These impacts are associated with the SAH, ASH, WPSH, EAPJS position, CGT and ASM anomalies. In summary, the three Poles mainly modulate concurrent extremes through monsoon circulation, amplified Rossby waves, CGT, poleward of subtropical high and westerly jet streams etc.
There are interactions between the hydro-thermal conditions in the three Poles (Arctic, Antarctic, and Tibet Plateau). For example, the thermal conditions on the Tibet Plateau can influence the loss of sea ice in the Barents Sea, while the loss of Arctic sea ice in spring can enhance snowmelt on the Tibet Plateau via wave trains, polar Eurasian pattern and Eurasian land snowmelting72,73. Antarctic warming can lead to changes in the thermal conditions on the Tibet Plateau and the South Asia High, due to inter-hemispheric temperature and pressure gradient that impact on ASM intensity and locations. Additionally, the climate conditions in the Arctic can be transmitted to Antarctica through oceanic processes74, and Antarctica can modulate the vertical ocean flux that affects the AMOC75 and further enhances Arctic warming76.
The coupling or synergistic effect of Arctic warming, Antarctic warming, and the warm-wet conditions on the Tibet Plateau intensifies the southward movement of Asian circulations, which favors precipitation extremes and heatwaves in some regions such as the Yangtze River. The differential warming between the hemispheres can also impact the frequency and intensity of tropical extremes, including the location, width, and strength of the ITCZ and tropical cyclone activity77,78. Furthermore, the coupling or synergistic effect of the warming conditions in the three Poles can intensify heatwaves in the boreal regions. The frequent and amplified extremes in Europe have been accompanied by record declines in Arctic sea ice, Eurasian snow cover41,79 and Tibetan Plateau snow cover45. These changes could modulate the mid-latitude circulation patterns80, surface energy, and water balances.
Extreme associated atmospheric circulation in 2022
The feedback processes of snow-ice loss also have remote effects on atmospheric circulations in other regions of the world81,82,83,84. Comparing to climatological mean (contour lines), 500-hPa geopotential height in 2022 exhibits three anomaly characters (Supplementary Figure 1). Firstly, the decrease in the meridional temperature gradient caused by the warming in the polar regions leads to a poleward shift of the mid-high latitude wave in both the northern and southern hemispheres. This shift in circulation patterns and the strengthening of westerly jet streams contribute to concurrent extremes such as heatwaves, floods, and fires in the mid-latitudes13.
Secondly, there are three waves characters in the mid-high latitude, with blocking like wave ridges over the North Europe, the sea of Okhotsk and the west of North America; between three blockings, there are zonal westerly. Such circulations favor high temperature anomaly and heatwave over North Europe, East Siberia and west of North America, and frequent precipitation from Central Asia to the North China, and east of North America, because of frequent short wave disturbance alone zonal circulations. In the southern hemisphere, the poleward expansion of the meridional circulation leads to an anticyclonic anomaly in the wave trough over the east of South Africa. This circulation pattern favors increased precipitation in this region, such circulations persist from April to summer, which also favors for precipitation extreme in April 11-12. The related anticyclonic anomaly reveals a south shift in Mascarene High, corresponding to warming Antarctic66.
Thirdly, the poleward expansion of circulation patterns is also observed in the subtropics, where subtropical high-pressure systems extend poleward. The extension of the subtropical high over North Africa and the west Pacific, with the interlinking trend between them, contributes to heatwaves in Europe and the Yangtze River region. As the descending section of Hadley circulation, subtropical high should be integrated, while it is broken out due to thermal low pressure occurs over Eurasia continent in warming seasons, especially by the effect from Tibet Plateau heating85. Such interlinking trend of subtropical high in 2022 reveals the less effect of Tibet Plateau heating, corresponding to high soil moisture. Tibet Plateau thermal also enhance SAH exhibiting by 200-hPa geopotential height in 2022(b), SAH in 2022 exhibits northward and zonal extending, it favors for west extending and interlinking trend of subtropical high and northward precipitation belt that is helpful to extremes in the Northeast Asia.
The water vapor flux in the eastern hemisphere reveals the connections between extreme regions. The water vapor flux diverges from the Mascarene High and transported via cross-equatorial flow towards the Arabian Sea, the North Indian Ocean, and the South China Sea, impacting the ASM. This water vapor flux then moves northward to the Yangtze River, North China, and Northeast Asia, influencing the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The circulation anomalies in the southern hemisphere and the enlargement of the Mascarene High in April impact precipitation extremes in the east of South Africa. The enlargement of the ASM circulation and the weakening of the cross-equatorial flow contribute to cyclones and floods in Pakistan, as well as the southward monsoon trough over South China and the northwest extension of the WPSH, leading to extreme events such as the Dragon Boat Race flood in South China and the Yangtze River heatwave. The coupling of the westward extension of the WPSH with short wave disturbances in the mid-latitudes contributes to precipitation extremes in Northeast Asia and floods in Korea in June-July. Therefore, the Asian monsoon circulation anomaly plays a key role in connecting extreme regions in the eastern hemisphere.
Simulation on the three Poles warming effect on extreme concurrence
The independent forcing of Arctic, Antarctic and Tibet Plateau and coupling forcing of the three Poles is performed by reduced 50% of snow depth and ice cover from April to June. The results of the sensitivity experiments show that the reduced snow depth and ice cover in the Arctic, Antarctic, and Tibet Plateau lead to positive temperature anomalies in several regions, including YZ (Yangtze River), ESB (eastern Siberia), EEU (eastern Europe), WEU (western Europe), and WNA (West of North America). These positive temperature anomalies indicate that the forcing from the three Poles favors the occurrence of heatwaves in these regions (Fig. 4). Additionally, the experiments show significant positive precipitation anomalies over Pakistan, South China, and Northeast Asia, indicating that the forcing from the three Poles also contributes to precipitation extremes in these areas.
a, b is air temperature and precipitation over the key subareas in JA, respectively, c–e is circulation factors anomalies, the sensibility minus control results are from four kinds of forcing in AMJ driven by CESM, forcing are set by ice loss and snow melting in Arctic zone, SST rising in Antarctic zone, snow melting in Tibet Plateau and coupling ice and snow melting of three Poles, precipitation in ESAF and BR is in AM, precipitation in PK and SC is in JJ, precipitation in NEC is in JA.
The dynamical processes associated with these temperature and precipitation anomalies are related to the poleward jet streams, slow and double jet streams, the intense circum-global teleconnection and the amplified Rossby waves in the northern hemisphere20,86. These processes are associated with extratropical weather extremes. The experiments show that the all independent and coupling of three Poles contributes to poleward subtropical jet streams, which favors poleward subtropical high and poleward Mascarene High, however, these subtropical highs are in inverse to Arctic warming. Beside Tibet Plateau forcing, independent effect of Arctic and Antarctic warming and coupling effect of three Poles favors equal-ward ITCZ. Independent and coupling effect of three Poles are responsible for intense CGT and weak ASM. These anomalous circulations increase precipitation in Pakistan and South China, and increase heatwave in the Yangtze River region(Fig. 4). In addition, the forcing from Antarctica effect on heatwaves in the northern hemisphere may be related to a slow response of the AMOC and the ENSO46,47,48; the forcing from the Arctic on the ASM is also related to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern and related wave train in the westerly anomalies76, and is linked to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and an El Niño-like circulation through the North Pacific87(figures omitted).
To further illustrate the spatial differences in temperature and precipitation responses, the combined 2-m air temperature and precipitation in June, July, and August (JJA) are shown in Fig. 5. The positive temperature anomalies have been simulated in the west of North America, eastern Europe, eastern Siberia, and the Yangtze River region in eastern China. These anomalies correspond to magnified extratropical waves, poleward jets and subtropical highs. However, in western Europe, especially in the case of coupling forcing, there is negative temperature anomaly, possibly due to the uncertainty effect of the poleward subtropical high over North Africa. Positive precipitation anomalies are simulated in three subareas (Pakistan, South China, and Northeast Asia) in all four types of forcing, indicating the closely response of Asian monsoon variability88,89, the movement of the ITCZ, and the interaction of monsoon with extratropical Rossby waves90 to the three Poles warming. These responses are associated with ice loss and snow melting in the three Poles.
Simulated 2-m air temperature (left panel) and precipitation (right panel) anomalies in the key subareas from 4 kinds of forcing in MJ driven by CESM (forcing and Precipitation period are the same as Fig. 4, the boxes are representation subareas).
Discussions
Anthropogenic forcing, such as greenhouse gas emissions, has led to global warming, which in turn has intensified and increased the frequency of heatwaves and precipitation extremes. These extreme events pose a significant threat to socio-economic stability, human safety, and population dynamics, as well as increasing vulnerability to hazards91. Although long-term strategies such as energy saving, carbon emission reduction, and carbon neutralization are important in mitigating global warming, it is also essential to focus on sub-seasonal to annual extreme predictions for current disaster defense. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate spatiotemporal variation of heatwaves and precipitation extremes.
Climate warming can lead to dramatic changes in the earth-atmosphere system, including the phase change of water. This phase change, such as melting of ice and snow, can have significant impacts on radiation, energy, and hydrological processes. These changes can then affect large-scale dynamical processes and contribute to the occurrence of extreme events. In particular, the melting of ice and snow in the three Poles regions can result in lower surface albedo, meaning that more solar radiation is absorbed by the surface rather than reflected back into space, which leads to the storage of a larger amount of energy over the surface, contributing to further warming. This phenomenon has become more remarkable in recent years, especially in 2022, leading to anomalous conditions and a higher occurrence of record-breaking extreme events.
The physical processes associated with the impacts of the three Poles warming on the occurrence extremes are summarized as: 1) the amplified and poleward mid-latitude waves and westerly jet streams, and poleward and zonal extending of subtropical high in the northern and southern hemisphere, the former are closely associated to boreal heatwaves in the mid-latitude, the later are associated to Brazil and South African flood and monsoon circulation anomalies; 2) weak and equatorward Asian summer monsoon circulations, including East Asian monsoon and south Asian monsoon subsystems92, link east of south African flood with flood in Pakistan, South China, Northeast Asia and the Yangtze River heatwave.
The three Poles warming anomalies contribute to circulation anomalies and extreme events. Arctic warming can lead to poleward westerly jet streams, amplified Rossby waves86, subtropical high and ITCZ, due to weakened temperature gradient. Tibet Plateau wetness contributes to northward South Asian High, intense and west-extending in WPSH and weak Asian summer monsoon, due to reduced land-sea thermal contrast. Antarctic warming contributes to poleward Rossby waves and the development of a poleward high-pressure system known as the Mascrene High in the southern hemisphere. These circulation features can influence the southward divergence regions of Asian summer monsoon, because poleward Mascrene High reduce pressure gradient between two hemispheres, leading to weak and southward-shifted monsoon circulation66,67 and contributing to extreme events in regions such as flood in Pakistan and South China, heatwave in the Yangtze River etc. With coupling and synergistic effect of three Poles warming by forcing of reduction 50% ice and snow fraction, circulation responses include poleward westerly jet stream, Rossby waves and subtropical high, weak and southward Asian summer monsoon etc., and heatwaves and precipitation extremes are clear. The coupling forcing results are similar with independent forcing of the three Poles, indicating the amplified effect of coupling and synergism of three Poles warming. The mechanism scheme is showed in Fig. 6, it also summarizes all physical processes.
Sketch map of three Poles warming effect on concurrent extremes in 2022.
The study just discusses the independent and coupling/synergism effect of the three Poles warming, with rising anthropogenic forcing, ice and snow is reduced, that modulate thermal distribution and atmospheric circulations by surface albedo feedback and hydrological effect of rising evaporation and soil moisture. In addition, El-Nino–Southern Oscillation can drive simultaneous extremes in far distant regions all over the world through teleconnections and global atmospheric variability22, which and local land feedback are possible factors that impact on concurrent extremes in 2022, and have been suggested26. Additionally, positive sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific could excite Rossby waves causing extratropical circulation anomalies and Hadley circulation changes93; the concurrent pattern in summer possible associated with local land forcing effect especially from non-uniform thermal, Eurasian snow cover etc94. All these forcing corresponds to anthropogenic warming, and are of investigation on concurrent extremes.
Methods
Parameters definition
To get global heatwave frequency that own different definition thresholds in different countries, we define daily temperature above 90% percentile as heatwave day; 90% percentile daily precipitation threshold is defined as precipitation extreme. The time series of heatwaves and precipitation extremes in the key subareas (marked in Fig. 1) are obtained, which is used in other Figures. Outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) anomaly is defined as difference between(100-125°E,10-25°N) and (100-125°E,25-35°N), exhibiting ITCZ movement and meridional location of Asian summer monsoon deviation. Asian summer monsoon index is defined by Zhao et al. (2015)95. Temperature co-occurring index (TCI) is defined as the standardized temperature difference between three high temperature regions (100 ~ 125°E,25 ~ 35°N; 10°W ~ 30°E,35 ~ 55°N; 130 ~ 100°W,32 ~ 60°N) and three high precipitation regions (50 ~ 80°E,25 ~ 35°N; 105 ~ 120°E,10 ~ 25°N; 110 ~ 135°E,35 ~ 55°N).
Community Earth System Model and experiments
The Community Earth System Model (CESM, version 1.0.4) provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research includes interactively coupled models for simulating Earth’s climate system. CESM includes four important modules, those are Community Atmosphere Model, the Community Land Model, the Community Ice CodE, and the Climatological/Slab-Ocean Data Model for atmosphere, land, sea ice, and ocean, which thereby could simulate interaction of ice-atmosphere, ocean- atmosphere and land-atmosphere. We perform four sensitive experiments, including three independent and one coupling sensitive experiments, all are forced from April 1st to June 30th. Referring to key regions in Fig. 2; Three independent experiments include: 1) Ice loss and snow cover reduced 50% in Arctic zone(60°W-150°E, 60-85°N); 2) SST anomaly in 2022 is set in Antarctic zone(45°W-90°E,85°S-60°S) to replace the Antarctic snow/ice melting effect, because Antarctic snow/ice melting mainly occurs on the edge of Antarctic that contributes to SST increase; 3) snow cover reduced 50% in Tibet Plateau(70-100°E, 30-40°N). In the coupling experiment, above three forcing are together set in the experiment. Both of the sensitivity and control experiments are run for 40 model years.
Data availability
All data used in this study are available online. CPC precipitation data is available from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html. ERA5 circulation data is available from https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5. Sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration data is available from https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadisst/data/download.html. Soil moisture data is available from https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/gldas/.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFF0801601). We acknowledge the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) physical sciences laboratoty on the high resolution gridded datasets, CPC is gridded 0.5°\(\times\)0.5° Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation. We also acknowledge the ECMWF ERA5 with horizontal resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°; the long-term monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration are obtained from the Met Office Hadley Centre96, with a horizontal resolution of 1.0° × 1.0° and 2.5° × 2.5°, respectively; and the monthly soil moisture with horizontal resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System97.
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J.Z. conceived and designed the study. X.F. processed CESM model simulations, with the help from H.C and Z.Y. contributed to designed and physical process interpretation. R.H. revised the manuscript.
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Zhang, J., Chen, H., Fang, X. et al. Warming-induced hydrothermal anomaly over the Earth’s three Poles amplifies concurrent extremes in 2022. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7, 8 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00553-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00553-6
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