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The authors declare that data supporting the calculations in columns B through to D of Table 1 are included as Supplementary Information. The raw data analysed by the authors for Extended Data Fig. 1 are available from Rystad Energy in their UCube database, but restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for the referenced study, and so are not publicly available. Raw data are available from the authors upon reasonable request and with permission of Rystad Energy.
No custom code or mathematical algorithms were used to generate results reported in this paper. The entirety of the oil market model is provided as equation (1) in the Methods.
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P.E. and M.L. thank A. Vogt-Schilb, S. Pye and N. Bauer for discussions about IAM models. P.E. acknowledges funding from the Schmidt Family Foundation.
The authors declare no competing interests.
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Extended data figures and tables
The cumulative supply of oil in 2030 is shown for increasing oil price. Most blocks (64 of 80) in this cost curve represent a combination of a particular stage of development (one of four) in eight major world regions (the continents plus the Middle East and Russia minus Antarctica), whether onshore or offshore. Further (16) blocks represent the USA or Canada, since they are major new sources of oil (about 41% and 7% of all regions that are not yet producing oil). The figure is adapted from figure 1 in ref. 20 and based on data from Rystad Energy (see ‘Data availability’ section).
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Erickson, P., van Asselt, H., Koplow, D. et al. Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter. Nature 578, E1–E4 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1920-x
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