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Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world

Nature Energy volume 9, pages 242–250 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity.

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Fig. 1: Country-level fossil fuel production versus fossil fuel production compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2010–2020.
Fig. 2: Development transitions framework for fossil fuel-producing LLMICs in a carbon-constrained world.
Fig. 3: Heatmap illustrating the readiness of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs for different transition pathways along a set of indicative metrics.

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Acknowledgements

This work was partially funded by the Climate Compatible Growth programme of the UK government. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.

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Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Vivien Foster, Philipp A. Trotter.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK

    Vivien Foster

  2. Schumpeter School of Business and Economics, University of Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany

    Philipp A. Trotter, Sven Werner & Melin Niedermayer

  3. Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Philipp A. Trotter, Aoife Brophy, Sam Fankhauser, Alexis McGivern & Sugandha Srivastav

  4. Oxford Net Zero, School of Geography, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Philipp A. Trotter, Stuart Jenkins & Alexis McGivern

  5. Department of Science Technology, Engineering & Public Policy, University College London, London, UK

    Yacob Mulugetta & Lucas Somavilla Croxatto

  6. Stockholm Environment Institute, Bangkok, Thailand

    Ploy Achakulwisut

  7. Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Aoife Brophy

  8. Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India

    Navroz K. Dubash

  9. LKY School of Public Policy, National University of, Singapore, Singapore

    Navroz K. Dubash

  10. Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK

    Adam Hawkes & Vignesh Sridharan

  11. Energy and Power Group, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Stephanie Hirmer & Pu Yang

  12. Institute for New Economic Thinking, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Sam Loni

  13. Grantham Institute, London School of Economics & Political Science, London, UK

    Sam Loni

  14. National University of Laos, Vientiane, Laos

    Khamphone Nanthavong

  15. Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Benedict Probst

  16. Cambridge Centre for Environmental, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

    Benedict Probst

  17. UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK

    Steve Pye

  18. Fundação Kissama, Luanda, Angola

    Vladimir Russo

  19. Political Economy Research Institute and Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA

    Gregor Semieniuk

  20. Centre for Research on Governance and Development (CPGD), Maputo, Mozambique

    Carlos Shenga

  21. Groupe de Reflection et d’Initiatives Novatrices, Bamako, Mali

    Youba Sokona

  22. Exeter Sustainable Finance Centre, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Pu Yang

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Correspondence to Vivien Foster or Philipp A. Trotter.

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Foster, V., Trotter, P.A., Werner, S. et al. Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world. Nat Energy 9, 242–250 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3

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