The decarbonization of residential heating is essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. There are a number of low-carbon heating technologies available: heat can be electrified with heat pumps or electric boilers (which can be coupled with thermal energy storage to reduce electricity needs during peak heat demand) and hydrogen can substitute natural gas in boilers. Yet, it is not fully clear in which proportion these technologies should be combined in order to minimize the overall costs in the wider energy system (that is, investment and operation costs at both supply and demand sides). Now, Marko Aunedi and colleagues from Imperial College London and University of Bari develop an energy system modelling approach to determine the most cost-effective mix of heating technologies, taking into consideration technological, infrastructural and market factors.

The researchers also account for characteristics of the energy system such as weather conditions and consumption patterns by studying two archetypal climate scenarios for the United Kingdom: a cold climate with high heat demand and large availability of wind for electricity generation, and a hotter climate with a lower heat demand and large availability of solar energy. These scenarios are reflective of the climate across the northern and southern parts of the country, respectively. Aunedi et al. find that heat pumps provide the largest share of heat demand for both scenarios, while the residual demand was supplied by electric and hydrogen boilers and thermal energy storage. Yet, the researchers also show that the optimal proportion of each heating technology varies considerably across the two scenarios, as it depends on factors such as volume and diversity of heat demand and the availability of renewable energy sources. The results show the importance of considering the specific characteristics of the energy system to minimize the overall cost of the future heating technology mix. In principle, the modelling approach and the archetypal systems could be extended to other countries or regions.

Original reference: Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 187, 113695 (2023)