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A socio-technical approach for the assessment of critical infrastructure system vulnerability in extreme weather events

Nature Energy volume 8, pages 1002–1012 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

The recurrence of extreme weather events has led to the development of methods for assessing the vulnerability and interdependencies of physical and human systems. A case example is Hurricane Maria (H-Maria), where Puerto Rico experienced damage to 80% of its electrical power system, leading to massive disruptions of essential services for months. Here we evaluate the effectiveness of various interventions aimed at reducing vulnerability by considering power and water infrastructure and respective water–power dependencies while also considering the social vulnerability of affected communities associated with the physical infrastructure upgrades. On the basis of the current infrastructure configuration, we found that all communities suffered enormously from power and water outages. As one upgrade option, we show that incorporating regional energy grids would reduce outages in an H-Maria scenario. However, a large portion of disadvantaged communities will face service disruption under this option. In contrast, hardening transmission lines, as the second option, would improve service delivery and, most importantly, provide uninterrupted service to the higher portion of the vulnerable population.

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Fig. 1: Study area and downscaled model results in the aftermath of H-Maria.
Fig. 2: Flood modelling results.
Fig. 3: Power grid and water network pump in Puerto Rico.
Fig. 4: General framework.
Fig. 5: Results of the power and water models, shown as service level.
Fig. 6: Socio-technical analysis.

Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analysed during the current study are available in the Zenodo repository https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7388021.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support received by the US National Science Foundation under grant CBET-1832678, the National Science Foundation Program for Critical Resilient Interdependent Infrastructure Systems and Processes titled ‘Integrated Socio-Technical Modeling Framework to Evaluate and Enhance Resiliency in Islanded Communities’ under award 1832678.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY, USA

    Juan P. Montoya-Rincon & Jorge E. Gonzalez-Cruz

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY, USA

    Said A. Mejia-Manrique & Reza Khanbilvardi

  3. Department of Civil and Urban Engineering, New York University, Brooklyn, NY, USA

    Shams Azad & Masoud Ghandehari

  4. Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, USA

    Eric W. Harmsen

  5. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY, USA

    Jorge E. Gonzalez-Cruz

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  1. Juan P. Montoya-Rincon
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Contributions

J.P.M.-R.: data collection, formal analysis, writing, review and editing. S.A.M.-M.: data collection, formal analysis, writing, review and editing. S.A.: data collection, formal analysis, writing, review and editing. M.G.: funding acquisition, review and editing. E.W.H.: funding acquisition, review and editing. R.K.: funding acquisition and review. J.E.G.-C.: funding acquisition, project lead, review and editing.

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Correspondence to Juan P. Montoya-Rincon or Said A. Mejia-Manrique.

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Montoya-Rincon, J.P., Mejia-Manrique, S.A., Azad, S. et al. A socio-technical approach for the assessment of critical infrastructure system vulnerability in extreme weather events. Nat Energy 8, 1002–1012 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01315-7

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