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Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Nature Energy volume 3, pages 664–673 (2018)Cite this article

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Abstract

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.

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Fig. 1: Share of EDVs in 2050.
Fig. 2: Marginal abatement cost for CO 2 emission reductions from light-duty vehicles.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge funding provided by the ADVANCE project (FP7/2007–2013, grant agreement number 308329) of the European Commission. P. Kolp, D. Huppmann and M. Strubegger of IIASA provided critical assistance with MESSAGE-Transport model development. B. Girod (ETH-Zürich) helped with IMAGE model development. N. Lutsey of The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) referred us to the most up-to-date information on AFV-supporting policies at the time of writing.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    David L. McCollum, Charlie Wilson, Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi

  2. Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA

    David L. McCollum

  3. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

    Charlie Wilson & Hazel Pettifor

  4. Climate and Sustainable Innovation (CSI) Program, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), and Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division (ECIP), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Milan, Italy

    Michela Bevione, Samuel Carrara & Johannes Emmerling

  5. Climate, Air and Energy Department, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands

    Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Detlef P. van Vuuren

  6. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Detlef P. van Vuuren

  7. Ecole des Ponts, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne, France

    Céline Guivarch

  8. E3MLab/Institute of Communications and Computer Systems, National Technical University of Athens, Zografou, Greece

    Panagiotis Karkatsoulis & Leonidas Paroussos

  9. UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, London, United Kingdom

    Ilkka Keppo & Baltazar Solano Rodriguez

  10. Center for Transportation Analysis, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Knoxville, TN, USA

    Zhenhong Lin

  11. Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA

    Zhenhong Lin

  12. Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) & Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines (SMASH), Nogent-sur-Marne, France

    Eoin Ó Broin

  13. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA

    Kalai Ramea

  14. Institute of Thermal Engineering, Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria

    Keywan Riahi

  15. Payne Institute, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA

    Keywan Riahi

  16. Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kyoto, Japan

    Fuminori Sano

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  1. David L. McCollum
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Contributions

D.L.M., C.W., V.K. and K. Riahi designed the research. H.P., C.W., Z.L. and K. Ramea contributed data for the modelling. D.L.M., M.B., E.ÓB., S.C., O.Y.E., J.E., C.G., P.K., I.K., V.K., L.P., K. Riahi, B.S.R. and D.P.v.V. implemented the modelling. D.L.M. wrote the manuscript, with all authors contributing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to David L. McCollum.

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Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Tables 1–5, Supplementary Figures 1–18, Supplementary Discussion, Supplementary Methods, Supplementary References

Supplementary Data 1

Model assumptions for annual driving distances and consumer group splits by region

Supplementary Data 2

Model assumptions for (dis)utility costs by non-financial attribute, consumer group, vehicle technology and region

Supplementary Data 3

Model assumptions for capital costs of light-duty vehicles over time in each model’s USA region in the ‘AFV Push’ scenario with US$100 per tCO2 carbon pricing

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McCollum, D.L., Wilson, C., Bevione, M. et al. Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles. Nat Energy 3, 664–673 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z

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