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Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy

Nature Ecology & Evolution volume 1, pages 1616–1624 (2017)Cite this article

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Abstract

There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.

A systematic bias in reasoning exists within ecological resilience research resulting from the conditional selection of ecosystems for study that exhibit desirable responses1. This issue extends to the application of resilience approaches in general and must be addressed to avoid the separation of theoretical application from mechanistic understanding of the system of interest. Here we explore this issue using lakes as a model system. The issue can be conceptualized generally using a probability framework that is commonly applied in social psychology: the conjunction rule2. This rule states that the probability of two events occurring together cannot exceed the probability of either of the respective single events. A conjunction fallacy occurs when it is stated that the co-occurrence of two events is more likely than either event alone. This can happen when basic laws of probability have been ignored, with conclusions being reached via simple heuristics that are derived from beliefs rather than robust probabilistic assessment.

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Fig. 1: Standard deviation (s.d.) as an EWI for three lake ecosystems, over different timescales.

Loch Leven photograph (left image), Jim Hampson/Scottish Natural Heritage; Windermere photograph (middle image), Mitzi M. De Ville; Müggelsee photograph (right image), T. Hintze.

Fig. 2: An assessment of EWIs during a transition from macrophyte to phytoplankton dominance in a nine-month mesocosm experiment38,24 September 2012 to 2 August 2013, Wuhan Botanical Gardens, China.
Fig. 3: Examples of changes in variability following management intervention.

Calhoun Lake photograph (right image), Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board.

Fig. 4

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Acknowledgements

B.M.S., E.J., L.C., S.J.T. and E.B.M. were supported in part by the MARS project (Managing Aquatic ecosystems and water Resources under multiple Stress) funded under the 7th EU Framework Programme, Theme 6 (environment including climate change), contract number 603378 (http://www.mars-project.eu/). B.M.S., L.M., L.C. and S.I. were supported in part by a grant from the Scottish government (RESAS) on ‘Predicting the impact of current and future drivers of change upon aquatic ecology’. S.I. was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) PhD Studentship. R.A. acknowledges support by the EU Mantel project - a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Action; European Joint Doctorate Innovative Training Network (EJD, ITN). We thank all who have contributed to, and continue to support, the globally important long-term monitoring programmes of Loch Leven, Windermere, the Swedish Lakes (including Lake Härsvatten) and Müggelsee featured in this Perspective. We thank all with the foresight to collect and comprehensively assess the outcomes of the management activities at Calhoun Lake and Lake Engelshom. This Perspective was conceived during the workshop ‘Critical transitions in lakes’, December 2015, Edinburgh, UK, and supported by CEH and NERC through a National Capability programme on Ecosystem Processes & Resilience.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, UK

    Bryan M. Spears, Stephen Ives, Sarah J. Burthe, Laurence Carvalho, Francis Daunt, Linda May & Helen Woods

  2. Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7050, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden

    Martyn N. Futter, Brian J. Huser & David G. Angeler

  3. Department of Bioscience - Lake Ecology, Aarhus University, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600, Silkeborg, Denmark

    Erik Jeppesen, Thomas A. Davidson, Saara Olsen & Martin Søndergaard

  4. Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research (SDC), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049, Beijing, China

    Erik Jeppesen, Saara Olsen & Martin Søndergaard

  5. School of Geosciences, Crew Building, The King’s Buildings, University of Edinburgh, Alexander Crum Brown Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK

    Stephen Ives

  6. Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Müggelseedamm 301, D-12587, Berlin, Germany

    Rita Adrian

  7. Department of Biology, Chemistry, Pharmacy, Free University of Berlin, 14195, Berlin, Germany

    Rita Adrian & Alena S. Gsell

  8. Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Box 1066 Blindern, 0316, Oslo, Norway

    Dag O. Hessen

  9. Department of Aquatic Ecology, NIOO-KNAW, Droevendaalsesteeg 10, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Annette B. G. Janssen

  10. Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Annette B. G. Janssen

  11. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK

    Eleanor B. Mackay & Stephen J. Thackeray

  12. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK

    Heather Moorhouse

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  1. Bryan M. Spears
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the original concept of this paper and to the development of the text. B.M.S., M.N.F., E.J., T.A.D., B.J.H. and S.J.T. led the preparation of the text and paper structure. S.I., B.J.H., E.J., M.N.F. and S.J.T. prepared the figures with data provided by E.B.M., H.W., S.I., L.M., B.J.H., R.A., M.S., M.N.F. and A.S.G. B.M.S. led the final draft preparation and submission stages with comments from all authors being received prior to submission.

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Correspondence to Bryan M. Spears.

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Spears, B.M., Futter, M.N., Jeppesen, E. et al. Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy. Nat Ecol Evol 1, 1616–1624 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0333-1

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