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Warming and lateral shift of the Gulf Stream from in situ observations since 2001

Nature Climate Change volume 13, pages 1348–1352 (2023)Cite this article

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An Author Correction to this article was published on 08 April 2024

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Abstract

As the poleward-flowing western boundary current of the North Atlantic ocean, the Gulf Stream plays a key role in the climate system. Here we show that from 2001 to 2023, the Gulf Stream west of 68° W has experienced both surface-intensified warming due to heat uptake at a rate exceeding the global average and a bulk lateral shift towards its cooler shoreward side at a rate of about 6 ± 3 km per decade. The Gulf Stream west of 68° W now has an O(10)-m-thick surface layer of warmer (by ~ 1 °C) and lighter (by ~ 0.3 kg m−3) water, contributing to increased upper ocean stratification. Our results rely on over 25,000 temperature and salinity profiles collected by autonomous profiling floats and underwater gliders in the region, allowing robust estimation of trends and clear attribution of observed changes to both ocean heat uptake and a lateral shift of the Gulf Stream.

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Fig. 1: Gulf Stream observations used here.
Fig. 2: Example of observed trend in potential temperature.
Fig. 3: Vertical profiles of trends in Gulf Stream properties.

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Data availability

Spray glider observations used here are available as NetCDF files49,50. Argo data used here are available from ref. 51. Three-dimensional mean and annual cycle fields derived from glider observations are available as NetCDF files60. Plotting makes use of bathymetry from ref. 61 and routines from refs. 62,63.

Code availability

Matlab code used to estimate trends in Gulf Stream properties is available on Zenodo64.

Change history

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Acknowledgements

Spray glider operations in the Gulf Stream have relied on P. Deane at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and the Instrument Development Group at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Glider-based surveys have been supported by the National Science Foundation (awards OCE-0220769 to W. B. Owens; OCE-0220930 to R. E. Davis; OCE-1558521, OCE-1633911 and OCE-1923362), the Office of Naval Research (awards N00014-17-1-3040, N00014-17-1-2968, N00014-18-1-2425, N00014-21-1-2294), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (awards NA14OAR4320158 and NA19OAR4320074, https://doi.org/10.13039/100018302), WHOI and Eastman, all to R.E.T. except as noted. A.S.R. was supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at WHOI, with funding provided by the Doherty Foundation. The importance of the long-term efforts of the global Argo programme cannot be understated.

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  1. Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA

    Robert E. Todd & Alice S. Ren

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  1. Robert E. Todd
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R.E.T. conceived of the idea to analyse long-term trends in the data and led the glider data collection efforts. R.E.T. and A.S.R. developed and conducted the analysis methods. R.E.T. wrote the paper. R.E.T. and A.S.R. edited the paper.

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Correspondence to Robert E. Todd.

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Todd, R.E., Ren, A.S. Warming and lateral shift of the Gulf Stream from in situ observations since 2001. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 1348–1352 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01835-w

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