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Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Nature Climate Change volume 13, pages 778–787 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Climate change adaptation needs, as well as the capacity to adapt, are unequally distributed around the world. Global models that assess the impacts of climate change and policy options to reduce them most often do not elaborately represent adaptation. When they do, they rarely account for heterogeneity in societies’ adaptive capacities and their temporal dynamics. Here we propose ways to quantify adaptive capacity within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, a scenario set widely used by climate impact and integrated assessment models. A large set of indicators spanning different socioeconomic dimensions can be used to assess adaptive capacity and deliver adaptation-relevant, scenario-resolved information that is crucial for more realistic assessment of whether and how climate risks can be reduced by adaptation.

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Fig. 1: Typical characterization of the risk of climate change impacts versus socioeconomic characterization of adaptive capacity.
Fig. 2: Stepwise approach to assessing adaptive capacity.
Fig. 3: Conceptual connections between adaptive capacity, model integration and risk assessments.

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Data availability

The data listed in Table 1 are available in a certified repository88 and are open access. The data can also be interactively accessed through the Socio-economic and Political Data Explorer at https://socecoexplorer.shinyapps.io/soc-ex/.

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Acknowledgements

We thank O. Serdeczny for useful comments on the earlier versions of this work and J. Kikstra, the reigning IIASA table tennis champion, for a helpful exchange on the revised version. R.M. acknowledges support from the ERC Consolidator Grant under grant agreement number 101002973 (POPCLIMA). N.v.M. and E.T. acknowledge support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under grant agreement number 01LN1711A (EmBARK). C.-F.S. acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programmes under grant agreement number 101003687 (PROVIDE).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Marina Andrijevic, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Raya Muttarak, Keywan Riahi & Edward Byers

  2. Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany

    Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tabea Lissner, Emily Theokritoff, Adelle Thomas & Nicole van Maanen

  3. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems, Geography Department, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany

    Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Emily Theokritoff & Nicole van Maanen

  4. Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria

    Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

  5. Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy

    Raya Muttarak

  6. Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria

    Keywan Riahi

  7. University of the Bahamas, Nassau, Bahamas

    Adelle Thomas

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  1. Marina Andrijevic
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Contributions

M.A. conceived the paper and created the figures with contributions from E.B. and C.-F.S. M.A., C.-F.S., J.C.C., T.L., R.M., K.R., E.T., A.T. and N.v.M. contributed to writing the paper. M.A. wrote the revisions with inputs from E.B. and C.-F.S.

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Correspondence to Marina Andrijevic.

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Data sources for the indicators featured in Table 1.

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Andrijevic, M., Schleussner, CF., Crespo Cuaresma, J. et al. Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 778–787 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1

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