Abstract
Climate change-related drought risks are intensifying in many urban areas, making stakes particularly high in contexts of severe vulnerability. Yet, how social power, differential agency and economic visions will shape societal responses to droughts remains poorly understood. Here, we build a social-environmental scenario of the possible impacts of an unprecedented drought in Maputo, which epitomizes a Southern African city with highly uneven development and differential vulnerability across urban areas. To build the scenario, we draw on theoretical insights from critical social sciences and take Cape Town (2015–2017) as a case-in-point of a locally unprecedented drought in Southern Africa. We show that future droughts in Southern Africa will probably polarize urban inequalities, generate localized public health crises and regress progress in water access. Climate policies must address these inequalities and develop equitable water distribution and conservation measures to ensure sustainable and inclusive adaptation to future droughts.
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Data availability
The qualitative data supporting the findings of this Analysis are available within the Analysis and its Supplementary Information (Extended case study: Maputo and Extended case study: Cape Town). Some qualitative data are not publicly available due to ethical restrictions (that is, they contain information that could compromise the anonymity of research participants). These data are available from the corresponding author (maria.rusca@manchester.ac.uk) on reasonable request. Anonymized data will be made available within a month from the request. Data on the filling levels of the water reservoirs of the two cities are available at the City of Cape Town Data portal (https://cip.csag.uct.ac.za/monitoring/bigsix.html), the Direcção Nacional de Gestão de Recursos Hídricos (National Directorate of Water Resources, Mozambique, https://www.dngrh.gov.mz/index.php/publicacoes/boletins-de-bacias-hidrograficas) and the Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações (Digital Dissertation Repositiry, https://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/10365). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data can be retrieved from SPEIbase (https://spei.csic.es/).
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Acknowledgements
M.R., E.S. and G.D.B. were supported by the European Union H2020 research and innovation programme, ERC Grant No. 771678 (HydroSocialExtremes); G.M. was supported by European Union H2020 research and innovation programme ERC grant no. 948309 (CENÆ); A.B. was supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) grant agreement W07.69.109. M.R.’s fieldwork in Maputo was supported by Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 656738 (INHAbIT Cities) and A.B.’s by NWO 07.69.109.
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M.R. and G.M. conceived and designed the study. M.R., E.S. and A.B. undertook fieldwork in Maputo and Cape Town; M.R., E.S. and G.M. wrote the paper; all authors analysed and interpreted data and G.M., E.S. and M.R. developed the figures. All authors contributed to the revision.
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Locations of the case studies examined for the Theoretical Synthesis (Pillar 1).
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Rationale for extended case studies, Extended Case Study: Maputo and Extended Case Study: Cape Town.
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Rusca, M., Savelli, E., Di Baldassarre, G. et al. Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 98–105 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01546-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01546-8
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