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Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Nature Climate Change volume 8, pages 101–108 (2018)Cite this article

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Abstract

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical–extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

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Fig. 1: Sea surface temperature trends from observations for the period 1979–2012 indicating the concept of inter-ocean-basin teleconnections.
Fig. 2: The influence of sharp SST gradients in the Gulf Stream on the hydrological cycle of individual storms and their rectification on the mean climate state.
Fig. 3: Schematic indicating the concept of the ‘hierarchies of models’.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the support of CLIVAR in setting up the Climate Dynamics Panel and their travel support for hosting panel meetings. M.C. and S.M. conceived the paper and also co-chair the CLIVAR Climate Dynamics Panel. All other authors contributed to the writing. C.O.R. produced Fig. 2 and M.C. acknowledges support from NERC NE/N018486/1. N.K. acknowledges support from the ERC (grant 648982).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Matthew Collins

  2. Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan

    Shoshiro Minobe

  3. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Facultad de Ciencias — Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay

    Marcelo Barreiro

  4. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA

    Simona Bordoni

  5. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel

    Yohai Kaspi

  6. Shirahama Oceanographic Observatory, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Shirahama, Japan

    Akira Kuwano-Yoshida

  7. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

    Noel Keenlyside

  8. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany

    Elisa Manzini

  9. Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Christopher H. O’Reilly

  10. National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, UK

    Rowan Sutton

  11. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, USA

    Shang-Ping Xie

  12. L’Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, L’Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France

    Olga Zolina

  13. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow, Russia

    Olga Zolina

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Collins, M., Minobe, S., Barreiro, M. et al. Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics. Nature Clim Change 8, 101–108 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0059-8

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