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Widespread synchronous decline of Mediterranean-type forest driven by accelerated aridity

Nature Plants volume 9, pages 1810–1817 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Large-scale, abrupt ecosystem change in direct response to climate extremes is a critical but poorly documented phenomenon1. Yet, recent increases in climate-induced tree mortality raise concern that some forest ecosystems are on the brink of collapse across wide environmental gradients2,3. Here we assessed climatic and productivity trends across the world’s five Mediterranean forest ecosystems from 2000 to 2021 and detected a large-scale, abrupt forest browning and productivity decline in Chile (>90% of the forest in <100 days), responding to a sustained, acute drought. The extreme dry and warm conditions in Chile, unprecedented in the recent history of all Mediterranean-type ecosystems, are akin to those projected to arise in the second half of the century4. Long-term recovery of this forest is uncertain given an ongoing decline in regional water balance. This dramatic plummet of forest productivity may be a spyglass to the future for other Mediterranean ecosystems.

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Fig. 1: Annual regional mean NDVI time series and anomaly for all MTEs.
Fig. 2: MTEs' precipitation and temperature anomalies.
Fig. 3: Examples showing the magnitude of decline in evergreen sclerophyllous forests in Central Chile.

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Data availability

All data are available in the article. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The codes generated during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

A.M., S.G, A.L. and R.G. thank ANID/FONDAP/15110009, and A.M. thanks ANID Postdoctoral Fondecyt project 3210101. F.S. thanks ANID grants FB210006 and ACE210006 to the Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB). A.M. and J.C. acknowledges the support of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101037419, and J.C. acknowledges Postdoctoral Fondecyt project 3210311. S.G. thanks FORPES project PID2019-106908RA-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 from MICINN, Spain. J.F.O. was supported by the Chilean Foundation of Science and Technology (FONDECYT) Grant 11191147. We also thank the Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES) project PIA/BASAL FB0002. S.V. thanks ANID no. 9219/2022 Concurso Subvención a la Instalación en la Academia, Code 85220080.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratorio de Ecología del Paisaje y Conservación, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile

    Alejandro Miranda

  2. Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile

    Alejandro Miranda, Susana Gómez-González, Rayen Mentler, Antonio Lara & René Garreaud

  3. Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA

    Alexandra D. Syphard

  4. Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR, USA

    Alexandra D. Syphard

  5. Institute of Integrative Biology, Department of Environment Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland

    Miguel Berdugo

  6. Departamento de Industria, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Tecnológica Metropolitana, Santiago, Chile

    Jaime Carrasco

  7. Departamento de Biología-IVAGRO, Universidad de Cádiz, Puerto Real, Spain

    Susana Gómez-González

  8. Center for Fire and Socioecological Systems (FireSES), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile

    Susana Gómez-González

  9. Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de La Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    Juan F. Ovalle

  10. Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago, Chile

    Juan F. Ovalle & Marcelo D. Miranda

  11. Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de La Serena, La Serena, Chile

    Cristian A. Delpiano & Francisco A. Squeo

  12. Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Santiago, Chile

    Cristian A. Delpiano & Francisco A. Squeo

  13. Departamento de Química y Biología, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad de Atacama, Copiapó, Chile

    Solange Vargas

  14. Facultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería Forestal, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    Marcelo D. Miranda

  15. Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut, Mansfield, CT, USA

    Cynnamon Dobbs

  16. Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile

    Antonio Lara

  17. Fundación Centro de los Bosques Nativos FORECOS, Valdivia, Chile

    Antonio Lara

  18. Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    René Garreaud

Authors
  1. Alejandro Miranda
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Contributions

A.M., R.G., A.D.S., M.B., A.L. and S.G.-G. conceptualized the project. A.M., R.G. and J.C. developed the methodology. A.M., R.G., R.M., J.C. and M.D.M. curated data. A.M., R.G., R.M., J.C. and M.D.M. conducted formal analysis. A.M., R.G., R.M. and M.D.M. performed visualization. A.M., R.G., F.A.S., M.D.M., J.F.O., C.A.D. and A.L. acquired funding. A.M., J.F.O., C.A.D. and S.V. administered the project. A.M., R.G., A.D.S., M.B., M.D.M., S.G. and A.L. wrote the original draft, which was reviewed and edited by A.M., R.G., J.F.O., A.D.S., M.B., F.A.S., C.A.D., S.V., M.D.M., C.D., S.G. and A.L.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alejandro Miranda.

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Nature Plants thanks Víctor Resco de Dios and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Methods, Figs.1–4 and Tables 1–3.

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Source Data Fig. 1

Annual regional mean NDVI for all MTEs.

Source Data Fig. 2

The 1901–2020 annual precipitation anomalies for all MTEs. The 1901–2020 11-year mean-precipitation anomalies for all MTEs. The 1901–2020 11-year mean-maximum temperature anomalies for all MTEs.

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Miranda, A., Syphard, A.D., Berdugo, M. et al. Widespread synchronous decline of Mediterranean-type forest driven by accelerated aridity. Nat. Plants 9, 1810–1817 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-023-01541-7

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