Abstract
Background
Preventing or delaying the onset of psychosis requires identification of those at risk for developing psychosis. For predictive purposes, the prodrome – a constellation of symptoms which may occur before the onset of psychosis – has been increasingly recognized as having utility. However, it is unclear what proportion of patients experience a prodrome or how this varies based on the multiple definitions used.
Methods
We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of patients with psychosis with the objective of determining the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. Inclusion criteria included a consistent prodrome definition and reporting the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome. We excluded studies of only patients with a prodrome or solely substance-induced psychosis, qualitative studies without prevalence data, conference abstracts, and case reports/case series. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase (Ovid), APA PsycInfo (Ovid), Web of Science Core Collection (Clarivate), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, APA PsycBooks (Ovid), ProQuest Dissertation & Thesis, on March 3, 2021. Studies were assessed for quality using the Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Studies. Narrative synthesis and proportion meta-analysis were used to estimate prodrome prevalence. I2 and predictive interval were used to assess heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were used to probe sources of heterogeneity. (PROSPERO ID: CRD42021239797).
Results
Seventy-one articles were included, representing 13,774 patients. Studies varied significantly in terms of methodology and prodrome definition used. The random effects proportion meta-analysis estimate for prodrome prevalence was 78.3% (95% CI = 72.8–83.2); heterogeneity was high (I2 97.98% [95% CI = 97.71–98.22]); and the prediction interval was wide (95% PI = 0.411–0.936). There were no meaningful differences in prevalence between grouped prodrome definitions, and subgroup analyses failed to reveal a consistent source of heterogeneity.
Conclusions
This is the first meta-analysis on the prevalence of a prodrome prior to the onset of first episode psychosis. The majority of patients (78.3%) were found to have experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. However, findings are highly heterogenous across study and no definitive source of heterogeneity was found despite extensive subgroup analyses. As most studies were retrospective in nature, recall bias likely affects these results. While the large majority of patients with psychosis experience a prodrome in some form, it is unclear if the remainder of patients experience no prodrome, or if ascertainment methods employed in the studies were not sensitive to their experiences. Given widespread investment in indicated prevention of psychosis through prospective identification and intervention during the prodrome, a resolution of this question as well as a consensus definition of the prodrome is much needed in order to effectively direct and organize services, and may be accomplished through novel, densely sampled and phenotyped prospective cohort studies that aim for representative sampling across multiple settings.
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Change history
14 February 2024
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41380-024-02481-0
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Acknowledgements
We would like to extend our sincere thanks to the library sciences department at Yale University for their significant contributions to the process of finding, requesting, and making available articles for this review. We would also like to thank all those authors who made a significant effort to provide us with data missing from their articles in support of this review. These included: Dr. Jackson, Dr. Riecher-Rossler, Dr. Yildizhan, Dr. Pelizza, Dr. Ehrenreich, Dr. Barrantes, Dr. Velthorst, Dr. Salvatore, Dr. Dazzan, Dr. Conus, Dr. McGorry, Dr. Skokou, Dr. Woodberry, Dr. Van Os, Dr. Sullivan, Dr. Mustonen, and Dr. Renwick.
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No funding was received in connection to this review. D.B. is a shareholder, founder, and employee of Aifred Health, a digital mental health company which was not involved in any way with this review and whose work is not relevant to the aims of this review. D.B. did not receive funding from Aifred Health in connection to this review.
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DB contributed to study conceptualization and the study protocol, data collection, conducted the data analysis, and led manuscript writing and revisions. VD, ACW, and PP contributed to study conceptualization and the study protocol, data collection, manuscript writing. MCF contributed to study conceptualization, prepared the search strategy, and contributed to manuscript writing. MF, ARP III, SWW, SG, ARY and VS contributed to study conceptualization, advised on analyses, and contributed to manuscript writing and revision. JS provided supervision, contributed to study conceptualization and the study protocol, advised on the data analysis, and contributed to manuscript writing and revisions.
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Benrimoh, D., Dlugunovych, V., Wright, A.C. et al. On the proportion of patients who experience a prodrome prior to psychosis onset: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Mol Psychiatry (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41380-024-02415-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41380-024-02415-w