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A risk score predicting new incidence of hypertension in Japan

Journal of Human Hypertension volume 33, pages 748–755 (2019)Cite this article

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Abstract

The prevention of hypertension starts with the awareness of risk. Our aim was to construct a simple and well-validated risk model for nonhypertensive people in Japan consisting of basic clinical variables, using a dataset for two areas derived from the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study. We constructed a continuous-value model using data on 5105 subjects participating in both the baseline survey and a second survey conducted after 5 years. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 statistic for the entire cohort were 0.826 and 7.06, respectively. For validation, the entire cohort was randomly divided 100 times into derivation and validation sets at a ratio of 6:4. The summarized median AUC and the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 statistic were 0.83 and 12.2, respectively. The AUC of a point-based model consisting of integer scores assigned to each variable was 0.826 and showed no difference, compared with the continuous-value model. This simple risk model may help the general population to assess their risks of new-onset hypertension.

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Acknowledgements

We thank all of the technical staff members at the Department of Preventive Medicine, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine; Dr Yatami Asai; and the Seirei Social Welfare Community staff for the recruitment and follow-up of participants in the Daiko and Shizuoka areas in the J-MICC study. We thank Jennifer Barrett, Ph.D., from Edanz Group (www.edanzediting.com/ac) for editing a draft of this manuscript.

Funding

Funding

This study was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI Grants (No. 16H06277) and Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Priority Areas (No. 17015018) and Innovative Areas (No. 221S0001) from the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Preventive Medicine, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan

    Yuka Kadomatsu, Mineko Tsukamoto, Tae Sasakabe, Sayo Kawai, Mariko Naito, Yoko Kubo, Rieko Okada, Takashi Tamura, Asahi Hishida & Kenji Wakai

  2. Department of Thoracic Surgery, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan

    Yuka Kadomatsu & Kohei Yokoi

  3. Department of Public Health, Aichi Medical University, Nagakute, Japan

    Tae Sasakabe & Sayo Kawai

  4. Department of Oral Epidemiology, Hiroshima University Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima, Japan

    Mariko Naito

  5. Seirei Preventive Health Care Center, Shizuoka, Japan

    Atsuyoshi Mori

  6. Department of Healthcare Administration, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan

    Nobuyuki Hamajima

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  1. Yuka Kadomatsu
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  2. Mineko Tsukamoto
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Correspondence to Yuka Kadomatsu.

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Kadomatsu, Y., Tsukamoto, M., Sasakabe, T. et al. A risk score predicting new incidence of hypertension in Japan. J Hum Hypertens 33, 748–755 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41371-019-0226-7

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