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Development of a risk prediction score for hypertension incidence using Japanese health checkup data

Hypertension Research volume 45, pages 730–740 (2022)Cite this article

Abstract

Hypertension is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We developed a simple scoring method for predicting future hypertension using health checkup data. A total of 41,902 participants aged 30–69 years without baseline hypertension who underwent annual health checkups (mean age, 52.3 ± 10.2 years; male, 47.7%) were included. They were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 27,935) and validation cohorts (n = 13,967) at a ratio of 2:1. In the derivation cohort, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis and assigned scores to each factor significantly associated with 5-year hypertension. We evaluated the predictive ability of the scores using area under the curve (AUC) analysis and then applied them to the validation cohort to assess their validity. The score including items requiring blood sampling ranged from 0 to 14 and included seven indicators (age, body mass index, blood pressure, current smoking, family history of hypertension, diabetes, and hyperuricemia). The score not including items requiring blood sampling ranged from 0 to 12 and included five indicators (the above indicators, except diabetes and hyperuricemia). The score not including items requiring blood sampling was better; blood sampling did not improve diagnostic ability. The AUC of the score not including items requiring blood sampling was 0.76, with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.82 and 0.60, respectively, for scores ≥6 points. The incidence of hypertension gradually and constantly increased (from 0.9 to 49.6%) as the score increased from 0 to ≥10. Analysis in the validation cohort yielded similar results. We developed a simple and useful clinical prediction model to predict the 5-year incidence of hypertension among a general Japanese population. The model had reasonably high predictive ability and reproducibility.

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Acknowledgements

We appreciate the medical staff at Kagoshima Kouseiren Hospital for support in the data collection.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Cardiovascular Medicine and Hypertension, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Kagoshima University, Kagoshima, Japan

    Mariko Kawasoe, Shin Kawasoe, Takuro Kubozono, Satoko Ojima, Takeko Kawabata, Yoshiyuki Ikeda & Mitsuru Ohishi

  2. Kagoshima City Hospital, Kagoshima, Japan

    Mariko Kawasoe & Naoya Oketani

  3. Kagoshima Kouseiren Hospital, Kagoshima, Japan

    Hironori Miyahara & Koichi Tokushige

  4. School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Kagoshima University, Kagoshima, Japan

    Masaaki Miyata

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Correspondence to Takuro Kubozono.

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Kawasoe, M., Kawasoe, S., Kubozono, T. et al. Development of a risk prediction score for hypertension incidence using Japanese health checkup data. Hypertens Res 45, 730–740 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41440-021-00831-x

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