Abstract
BACKGROUND:
The aim of this study was to determine the optimal treatment for a patient with newly diagnosed prostate cancer weighing the individual's risk of disease progression against his risk of non-cancer death.
METHODS:
We developed a predictive model incorporating clinicopathological tumor variables, patient age, comorbidity status, and primary treatment modality. We identified 6091 patients with clinically-localized prostate cancer managed with radical prostatectomy (n=4117) or radiation therapy (n=1974) from the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor database. Fine and Gray competing-risks proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate the risks of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) and non-prostate cancer death and to generate a nomogram.
RESULTS:
The median follow-up after treatment was 53 months (interquartile range 30, 80 months). In total, 983 men died during follow-up, including 167 who died of prostate cancer and 816 who died of non-prostate cancer causes. On multivariate analysis, higher Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score and primary treatment with radiation were associated with an increased risk of PCSM, whereas older age, African-American race, and treatment with radiation predicted non-prostate cancer death. The number of comorbidities and receipt of androgen deprivation therapy correlated with an increased risk of non-prostate cancer death, but not PCSM. The resulting nomogram allows quantification and comparison of the 10-year risk of PCSM and non-prostate cancer death.
CONCLUSIONS:
Integrating clinicopathological variables with comorbid conditions in a competing-risks model affords quantification and comparison of relative probabilities of PCSM and non-prostate cancer death following treatment. Our model thereby facilitates an individualized approach for counseling patients regarding prostate cancer management.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 4 print issues and online access
$259.00 per year
only $64.75 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Siegel R, Ward E, Brawley O, Jemal A . Cancer statistics, 2011: the impact of eliminating socioeconomic and racial disparities on premature cancer deaths. CA Cancer J Clin 2011; 61: 212–236.
Lu-Yao GL, Albertsen PC, Moore DF, Shih W, Lin Y, DiPaola RS et al. Outcomes of localized prostate cancer following conservative management. JAMA 2009; 302: 1202–1209.
Sanda MG, Dunn RL, Michalski J, Sandler HM, Northouse L, Hembroff L et al. Quality of life and satisfaction with outcome among prostate-cancer survivors. N Engl J Med 2008; 358: 1250–1261.
Mohler JL . The 2010 NCCN clinical practice guidelines in oncology on prostate cancer. J Natl Compr Canc Netw 2010; 8: 145.
Thompson I, Thrasher JB, Aus G, Burnett AL, Canby-Hagino ED, Cookson MS et al. Guideline for the management of clinically localized prostate cancer: 2007 update. J Urol 2007; 177: 2106–2131.
Heidenreich A, Bellmunt J, Bolla M, Joniau S, Mason M, Matveev V et al. EAU guidelines on prostate cancer. Part 1: screening, diagnosis, and treatment of clinically localised disease. Eur Urol 2011; 59: 61–71.
Bill-Axelson A, Holmberg L, Ruutu M, Garmo H, Stark JR, Busch C et al. Radical prostatectomy versus watchful waiting in early prostate cancer. N Engl J Med 2011; 364: 1708–1717.
Harlan LC, Potosky A, Gilliland FD, Hoffman R, Albertsen PC, Hamilton AS et al. Factors associated with initial therapy for clinically localized prostate cancer: prostate cancer outcomes study. J Natl Cancer Inst 2001; 93: 1864–1871.
Houterman S, Janssen-Heijnen ML, Verheij CD, Kil PJ, van den Berg HA, Coebergh JW . Greater influence of age than co-morbidity on primary treatment and complications of prostate cancer patients: an in-depth population-based study. Prostate Cancer Prostatic Dis 2006; 9: 179–184.
Alibhai SM, Leach M, Tomlinson GA, Krahn MD, Fleshner NE, Naglie G . Is there an optimal comorbidity index for prostate cancer? Cancer 2008; 112: 1043–1050.
Lughezzani G, Briganti A, Karakiewicz PI, Kattan MW, Montorsi F, Shariat SF et al. Predictive and prognostic models in radical prostatectomy candidates: a critical analysis of the literature. Eur Urol 2010; 58: 687–700.
Walz J, Gallina A, Saad F, Montorsi F, Perrotte P, Shariat SF et al. A nomogram predicting 10-year life expectancy in candidates for radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy for prostate cancer. J Clin Oncol 2007; 25: 3576–3581.
Tewari A, Johnson CC, Divine G, Crawford ED, Gamito EJ, Demers R et al. Long-term survival probability in men with clinically localized prostate cancer: a case-control, propensity modeling study stratified by race, age, treatment and comorbidities. J Urol 2004; 171: 1513–1519.
Lubeck DP, Litwin MS, Henning JM, Stier DM, Mazonson P, Fisk R et al. The CaPSURE database: a methodology for clinical practice and research in prostate cancer. CaPSURE Research Panel. Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor. Urology 1996; 48: 773–777.
Cooperberg MR, Broering JM, Carroll PR . Risk assessment for prostate cancer metastasis and mortality at the time of diagnosis. J Natl Cancer Inst 2009; 101: 878–887.
Marr PL, Elkin EP, Arredondo SA, Broering JM, DuChane J, Carroll PR . Comorbidity and primary treatment for localized prostate cancer: data from CaPSURE. J Urol 2006; 175: 1326–1331.
Crawford ED, Grubb III R, Black A, Andriole Jr GL, Chen MH, Izmirlian G et al. Comorbidity and mortality results from a randomized prostate cancer screening trial. J Clin Oncol 2011; 29: 355–361.
US National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics Report (NVSR) Deaths: Final Data for 2006. Vol. 67, No. 14, 24 April 2009.
Fine JP, Gray RJ . A proportional hazards model for the subdistrituion of a competing risk. J Am Stat Assoc 1999; 94: 496–509.
Zhao KH, Hernandez DJ, Han M, Humphreys EB, Mangold LA, Partin AW . External validation of University of California, San Francisco, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score. Urology 2008; 72: 396–400.
Shariat SF, Karakiewicz PI, Roehrborn CG, Kattan MW . An updated catalog of prostate cancer predictive tools. Cancer 2008; 113: 3075–3099.
Cowen ME, Halasyamani LK, Kattan MW . Predicting life expectancy in men with clinically localized prostate cancer. J Urol 2006; 175: 99–103.
Albertsen PC, Moore DF, Shih W, Lin Y, Li H, Lu-Yao GL . Impact of comorbidity on survival among men with localized prostate cancer. J Clin Oncol 2011; 29: 1335–1341.
Abdollah F, Sun M, Schmitges J, Tian Z, Jeldres C, Briganti A et al. Cancer-specific and other-cause mortality after radical prostatectomy versus observation in patients with prostate cancer: competing-risks analysis of a large North American population-based cohort. Eur Urol 2011; 60: 920–930.
Stephenson AJ, Kattan MW, Eastham JA, Bianco Jr FJ, Yossepowitch O, Vickers AJ et al. Prostate cancer-specific mortality after radical prostatectomy for patients treated in the prostate-specific antigen era. J Clin Oncol 2009; 27: 4300–4305.
Melfi C, Holleman E, Arthur D, Katz B . Selecting a patient characteristics index for the prediction of medical outcomes using administrative claims data. J Clin Epidemiol 1995; 48: 917–926.
Rochon PA, Katz JN, Morrow LA, McGlinchey-Berroth R, Ahlquist MM, Sarkarati M et al. Comorbid illness is associated with survival and length of hospital stay in patients with chronic disability. A prospective comparison of three comorbidity indices. Med Care 1996; 34: 1093–1101.
Daskivich TJ, Chamie K, Kwan L, Labo J, Dash A, Greenfield S et al. Comorbidity and competing risks for mortality in men with prostate cancer. Cancer 2011 (E-pub ahead of print).
Cooperberg MR, Vickers AJ, Broering JM, Carroll PR . Comparative risk-adjusted mortality outcomes after primary surgery, radiotherapy, or androgen-deprivation therapy for localized prostate cancer. Cancer 2010; 116: 5226–5234.
Abdollah F, Sun M, Thuret R, Jeldres C, Tian Z, Briganti A et al. A competing-risks analysis of survival after alternative treatment modalities for prostate cancer patients: 1988–2006. Eur Urol 2011; 59: 88–95.
Nanda A, Chen MH, Braccioforte MH, Moran BJ, D’Amico AV . Hormonal therapy use for prostate cancer and mortality in men with coronary artery disease-induced congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction. JAMA 2009; 302: 866–873.
Punnen S, Cooperberg MR, Sadetsky N, Carroll PR . Androgen deprivation therapy and cardiovascular risk. J Clin Oncol 2011; 29: 3510–3516.
Cooperberg MR, Broering JM, Carroll PR . Time trends and local variation in primary treatment of localized prostate cancer. J Clin Oncol 2010; 28: 1117–1123.
Acknowledgements
CaPSURE is supported in part by an independent educational grant from Abbott. Abbott did not have a role in the design, conduct, analysis, or interpretation of the study or its results. This publication was also supported in part through the P30 CA006927 Comprehensive Cancer Center Program at Fox Chase Cancer Center (AK, RGU), and a Department of Defense Physician Research Training Award (AK).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
CaPSURE is supported in part by an independent educational grant from Abbott. Abbott did not have a role in the design, conduct, analysis, or interpretation of the study or its results. Dr Cooperberg has served as a consultant for Dendreon, Amgen, Centocor Ortho-biotech, and has received an honorarium from Takeda.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kutikov, A., Cooperberg, M., Paciorek, A. et al. Evaluating prostate cancer mortality and competing risks of death in patients with localized prostate cancer using a comprehensive nomogram. Prostate Cancer Prostatic Dis 15, 374–379 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/pcan.2012.21
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/pcan.2012.21
Keywords
This article is cited by
-
Determinants of variation in radical local treatment for men with high-risk localised or locally advanced prostate cancer in England
Prostate Cancer and Prostatic Diseases (2021)
-
Risk of second cancer following radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a population-based analysis
Radiation Oncology (2017)
-
Is prostate cancer stage migration continuing for black men in the PSA era?
Prostate Cancer and Prostatic Diseases (2017)
-
PREDICT: model for prediction of survival in localized prostate cancer
World Journal of Urology (2016)
-
Very-high-risk localized prostate cancer: definition and outcomes
Prostate Cancer and Prostatic Diseases (2014)