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Solar power needs a more ambitious cost target

Nature Energy volume 1, Article number: 16036 (2016) Cite this article

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Solar power is increasingly economical, but its value to the grid decreases as its penetration grows, and existing technologies may not remain competitive. We propose a mid-century cost target of US$0.25 per W and encourage the industry to invest in new technologies and deployment models to meet it.

A chasm separates academia and industry in solar photovoltaics (PV). Scientists herald a fundamental technology revolution underway in universities and research laboratories, promising new, commercially viable solar materials within years1–3. In contrast, most industry executives assume that commercially available solar materials — mostly silicon and inorganic thin films — will continue to dominate the market, and they are much more excited about ongoing financing and manufacturing advances that are making solar competitive with fossil fuels.

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Figure 1: Estimates of the falling long-term value of solar PV as penetration increases.
Figure 2: Historical learning curve for PV modules.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Varun Sivaram is at the Council on Foreign Relations, 1777 F Street NW, Washington DC 20006, USA.,

    Varun Sivaram

  2. Shayle Kann is at GTM Research, 2 Liberty Square, Floor 2, Boston, Massachusetts 02109, USA.,

    Shayle Kann

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  1. Varun Sivaram
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  2. Shayle Kann
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Correspondence to Varun Sivaram.

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Sivaram, V., Kann, S. Solar power needs a more ambitious cost target. Nat Energy 1, 16036 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.36

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