Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an expandable green alternative to crude oil use


Reduction of CO2 emissions will require a transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources. Expansion of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol1,2 provides one near-term scalable solution to reduce CO2 emissions from the global transport sector. In contrast to corn ethanol, the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol system may offset 86% of CO2 emissions compared to oil use, and emissions resulting from land-use change to sugarcane are paid back in just 2–8 years3,4. But, it has been uncertain how much further expansion is possible given increasing demand for food and animal feed, climate change impacts and protection of natural ecosystems. We show that Brazilian sugarcane ethanol can provide the equivalent of 3.63–12.77 Mb d−1 of crude oil by 2045 under projected climate change while protecting forests under conservation5 and accounting for future land demand for food and animal feed production. The corresponding range of CO2 offsets is 0.55–2.0 Gigatons yr−1. This would displace 3.8–13.7% of crude oil consumption and 1.5–5.6% of net CO2 emission globally relative to data for 20146,7.

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Figure 1: The fraction of land available for sugarcane expansion by 2045 in each of the legally defined micro-regions of Brazil under the three land-use scenarios considered in this study.
Figure 2: Yield change map of harvested stem yield (wet basis) to demonstrate the spatial distribution of climate change impact on sugarcane production by 2045.


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D.J. and S.P.L. acknowledge the financial support of the Energy Bioscience Institute and the Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation, both within the University of Illinois. D.J. acknowledges advice from D. Tanjore of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab on calculations related to second-generation ethanol production and J. R. Soares of University of Campinas on issues related to nitrogen in Brazilian sugarcane operation. S.P.L. acknowledges the support of the Newton-Abrahams Visiting Professorship at the University of Oxford, UK.

Author information

D.J. and S.P.L. led the study and analysis. D.J., A.P.D.S. and S.P.L. drafted the manuscript with support from S.L., D.S.L., F.E.M., G.S., G.B. and M.S.B. S.L. and G.S. assisted with soil, land-use data and developing land-use change model. A.P.D.S. and M.S.B. collected data from the Brazilian literature and databases for evaluating model performance and current status of ethanol industry in Brazil. D.S.L. assisted in obtaining climate data to perform simulations. D.J., F.E.M., G.B. and S.L. contributed to the development of the model to project sugarcane production.

Correspondence to Stephen P. Long.

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Jaiswal, D., De Souza, A., Larsen, S. et al. Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an expandable green alternative to crude oil use. Nature Clim Change 7, 788–792 (2017).

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