PLoS ONE http://doi.org/78g (2015)
Climate change offers a potentially fundamental challenge to the effectiveness of existing protected areas for conserving biodiversity. It is hoped that predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of species will aid conservation planning in the face of these challenges.
Gary Langham from the National Audubon Society, Washington, US, and co-workers assessed the potential for geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species, for both breeding and non-breeding seasons, under a range of emission scenarios to 2100. They found that 314 species (53%) were projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range by 2100. Of these, 126 were not expected to compensate for this loss by expanding their range elsewhere. Species designated with higher conservation priority were not found to be any more climate sensitive, and neither did the authors find clear patterns of response across habitat affinities or migration strategies.
These findings imply there is a pressing need to include climate sensitivity in conservation planning and to develop management strategies that address shrinking and shifting geographic ranges.
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Brown, A. North American birds. Nature Clim Change 5, 974 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2855
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2855
