Curbing crop failure

Adaptation measures can help avoid crop failure from climate change in the coming decades, but which approaches will reap the greatest reward?

Credit: © ISTOCKPHOTO/Alex Kotlov

For spring-sown wheat in northeastern China — a critical grain-growing region — adaptation efforts would be best focused on reducing water stress rather than heat stress, shows new research.

Using crop yield data gathered between 1950 and 1989, Andrew J. Challinor at the University of Leeds, UK and colleagues found that low wheat yields can result from heat stress during the crop's flowering phase and from drought-induced water stress at any time during the growing season¹. Model simulations of crop growth under various climate scenarios from 1990 to 2100 suggest that addressing water stress — by developing drought-tolerant wheat varieties or boosting investment in irrigation — would be more effective at reducing moderate wheat crop failures than efforts to avoid heat stress.

The findings could help policymakers prioritize investments in a variety of adaptive measures, say the authors, from plant-breeding efforts to crop-insurance schemes.