A study of anticipated shifts in the human population points to an opportunity for emissions reduction.
Ageing, urbanization and population growth could all substantially influence future emissions of carbon dioxide, finds one of the most comprehensive studies so far of the thorny interplay between demography and climate change.
A team of researchers led by Brian O'Neill of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, modelled shifts in the human population and found that a moderate slowdown in population growth could yield 16 to 29 percent of the cuts in carbon dioxide thought necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change1. Ageing in the coming decades could reduce long-term emissions by as much as 20 percent, they found, but expected increases in urbanization, which tends to boost economic activity, is likely to counter that reduction.
The results suggest that reducing population growth by 1.5 billion people between the years 2000 and 2050 could cut carbon emissions in 2050 by as much as 1.4 gigatons, an amount slightly more than one-sixth of today's worldwide total.
References
O'Neill, B., et al. Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 107, 17521–17526 (2010). 10.1073/pnas.1004581107
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Perkins, S. More inhabitants, more emissions. Nature Clim Change (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1001
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1001
