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An iceberg near West Antarctica, seen from above.

In West Antarctica, particularly the Amundsen Sea, melting has been underway for decades.Mario Tama/Getty

Some Antarctic melting looks unavoidable

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is melting at a rapidly increasing rate, a study from Nature Climate Change suggests. Even in the optimistic scenario, which means warming is limited to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, there will be a threefold increase in the rate of glacial melting. Ice sheets are surrounded by ice shelves, which float in the ocean. The shelves buttress and stabilize the ice sheets, but as they melt in the warming ocean, the sheets are also melting faster. The entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains 10% of Antarctic ice, enough ice to raise sea levels by 5 metres. “Even if we can’t avoid melting this region, we could still avoid the melting of East Antarctica,” says ocean modeller and study co-author Kaitlin Naughten.

The Washington Post | 7 min read

Reference: Nature Climate Change paper

Mixed signals on the future of oil

Oil megadeals are back

Oil giants Chevron and ExxonMobil have just spent more than US$120 billion on purchasing the slightly smaller oil companies Hess and Pioneer, respectively. Industry officials, including Chevron’s chief executive and Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, say that this is a testament to the industry’s bright future. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries says that oil demand will rise by 15% by 2045. “I don’t think anybody would buy an asset they will have to freeze and not make use of it,” says Prince Abdulaziz.

Financial Times | 5 min read

Fuel demand likely to peak by 2030

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency forecasts that renewable energy will supply 50% of the world’s electricity by 2030, probably reducing the demand for coal, oil and natural gas. The report estimates that the number of electric vehicles will increase tenfold across the world by the end of the decade, and that electric cars will make up 50% of cars sold in the United States. Solar panels will generate more electricity across the world than the US power grid produces now. This doesn’t mean that we’re on track to keep warming below 1.5 °C, however. To meet that target, renewable-energy use must triple, energy efficiency has to double and methane emissions must decrease by 75% by 2030.

NPR | 3 min read

India’s river plan could reduce rainfall

India is planning to link several rivers to divert water for irrigation. The scale of the project could change climate systems in the area, reducing rainfall by as much as 12%. Plans include a network of 15,000 kilometres of canals and thousands of reservoirs to transfer what amounts to Pakistan’s yearly water use. The canals will direct water from regions with abundant water to those in need. But the full effects of the project are unclear. Less river water flowing into the ocean could alter monsoon rainfall, and a boom in crops from increased irrigation could change cloud formation. Some scientists have cautioned that too little is known about the long-term impacts of the plan.

Nature | 4 min read

Reference: Nature Communications paper

Features & opinion

China is using big data for conservation

China is deciding where development can and can’t go using strictly defined boundaries called Ecological Conservation Redlines (ERLs). ERLs rely on data from local researchers and ecological databases that map out factors including biodiversity hotspots and fragile ecosystems. But the intense monitoring — from space and on the ground — required to enforce these zones raises fears that protecting nature could become another expression of authoritarianism.

The China Project | 9 min read

Offshore wind complicates tribal sanctuary

Plans for an offshore wind farm are threatening an Indigenous-led project to develop a huge marine sanctuary off the coast of California. The offshore wind farm would be unprecedented in extent, which means its environmental impacts are hard to predict. And the location would force the Northern Chumash Tribe to sacrifice a sacred part of the proposed site. “The hope was that the two goals would be compatible, but that might be too much industrial development to coexist within a national marine sanctuary,” said Paul Michel, a regional policy coordinator for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The New York Times | 11 min read

Canada’s year in flames

“I can’t think of any analogy for the extent to which the modern records were not only broken but destroyed here,” says fire scientist John Abatzoglou about Canada's unparalleled wildfire season. In addition to the extraordinary scale, experts say that the types of fires have changed. There is fire wind, fire whirls, fire tornadoes, and fire thunderstorms. Fires are jumping across rivers they have previously never crossed. And the future is uncertain. “Like all things climate-related, we have a massive problem, and there isn’t a quick way,” says forest ecologist Rachel Holt. “It seems futile, but you have to start local. If we manage the forest around my little town, well, maybe we can stop my little town from burning down.”

The New York Times Magazine | 23 min read

Infographic of the week

Two maps of South East Asia showing the correlation between rubber distribution and deforestation between 2001 and 2016.

More than four million hectares of forest has been lost as a result of rubber farming since 1993. (Nature, 41 min read). (Y. Wang et al./Nature)

Quote of the day

“By 2100, as many as 3 billion to 6 billion people may find themselves outside Earth’s livable regions, meaning they will be encountering severe heat, limited food availability and elevated mortality rates.”

Data scientist Christopher Wolf, who co-authored a report on ‘planetary vital signs’, warns that 20 out of the 35 measures he and his colleagues used to track the climate crisis are at record extremes. (The Guardian | 5 min read)