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Climate science

Unburnable fossil-fuel reserves

Nature volume 517, pages 150–151 (2015)Cite this article

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How much more of Earth's fossil fuels can we extract and burn in the short- to medium-term future and still avoid severe global warming? A model provides the answer, and shows where these 'unburnable' reserves are. See Letter p.187

Several studies have previously analysed the global long-term implications of climate-change mitigation on fossil-fuel markets3,4,5. The novelty of the present study stems from the detailed regional representation of fossil-fuel reserves used in the authors' model, which are based on well-established data sources. In each of the 16 regions modelled, fossil fuels are divided into 21 categories that include various types of coal, oil and gas. Each category further accounts for key characteristics, such as recoverable resources, production and trade costs, as well as natural decline rates of production (the rates of fall that would occur in the absence of any further investment).

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Figure 1: Fossil-fuel resources exceed atmospheric disposal space for carbon emissions.

Harvard Project on Climate Agreements

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Michael Jakob and Jérôme Hilaire are at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.,

    Michael Jakob & Jérôme Hilaire

  2. M.J. is also at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, 10829 Berlin, Germany.,

    Michael Jakob

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  1. Michael Jakob
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  2. Jérôme Hilaire
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Correspondence to Michael Jakob or Jérôme Hilaire.

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Jakob, M., Hilaire, J. Unburnable fossil-fuel reserves. Nature 517, 150–151 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/517150a

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