Rising ocean temperatures are already accelerating the melting of Greenland's coastal glaciers. Projections from 19 climate models now suggest that, with growing greenhouse-gas emissions, the maximum warming of subsurface waters around the island will be almost double the global average increase during the twenty-first century.

Jianjun Yin at the University of Arizona in Tucson and his co-workers modelled the impact of a modest rise in greenhouse-gas emissions on ocean temperatures around Greenland and Antarctica. They predict that waters 200–500 metres below the surface around Greenland will warm by 1.7–2.0 °C by the end of this century. Meanwhile, Antarctic Ocean temperatures will increase by roughly 0.5 °C.

The authors say that differences in ocean circulation patterns are a key factor in these responses.

Nature Geosci. doi:10.1038/ngeo1189 (2011)