Abstract
An earthquake alters the shear and normal stress on surrounding faults. New evidence strengthens the hypothesis that such small, sudden stress changes cause large changes in seismicity rate. Rates climb where the stress increases (aftershocks) and fall where the stress drops. Both increases and decreases in seismicity rate are followed by a time-dependent recovery. When stress change is translated into probability change, seismic hazard is seen to be strongly influenced by earthquake interaction.
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Acknowledgements
I thank the many colleagues who shared their preliminary research, and R. Dmowska, J. Lin, R. Madariaga, T. Parsons, F. Pollitz, J. Rice and S. Toda for comments. This Review Article was written while at Ecole Normale Supérieure and the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris. The support of Pacific Gas & Electric Co. is gratefully acknowledged.
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Stein, R. The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence. Nature 402, 605–609 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1038/45144
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/45144
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