tokyo

A stringent fiscal reform package announced last week by a government panel headed by the prime minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto, has thrown into doubt Japan's ambitious plan to increase public-sector funding for science and technology by more than 50 per cent over the next five years.

The fiscal reform plans approved by the cabinet call for severe cuts in government spending to rein in the ballooning national debt which stands at more than ¥400,000 billion (US$3,450 billion). Most of the cuts will be directed at public works spending and overseas development assistance, but science and technology will not escape unscathed.

In June last year, the government approved a plan to increase public-sector funding for science and technology by more than 50 per cent by 2001 (see Nature 381, 725; 1996). This fiscal year's budget, which came into effect on 1 April, accordingly has large increases for all science-related ministries and agencies, in many cases exceeding 10 per cent (see Nature 385, 104; 1997).

But after last week's reform proposal, outlays for next fiscal year are likely to be held to a 5 per cent increase, and increases in subsequent years are likely to be even smaller. According to an official at the ministry of finance, increases may remain low until at least 2003, when the government hopes to achieve its goal of reducing the combined deficits of central and local government to 3 per cent or less of gross domestic product.

The reform plan also states that no new large-scale science projects will be approved during this period of restraint, and existing large-scale projects that are experiencing trouble — such as the Monju fast breeder reactor — will be reviewed and either reduced in scale or terminated.

Futhermore, the panel echoes recent calls for strict external evaluation of public research bodies and projects. In particular, government-funded national research institutes, which constitute only a relatively small portion of the public-sector research system in terms of numbers of researchers, but which consume a large share of the overall research and development budget, are targeted for evaluation and reform.

Such institutes have benefited financially from a series of recent supplementary budgets. But critics argue that money has simply been poured into the purchase of expensive equipment, with little long-term planning or strengthening of research personnel.

The budget recommendations reflect a broader feeling that Japan may not be able to meet its promise to maintain the rapid expansion of its science base. In a recent article, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japan's influential business newspaper, stirred a debate with an article describing what it called the ‘research money bubble’, suggesting that it may soon burst as did the investment ‘bubble’ of the 1980s.