Beijing

China is expected to attempt to send its first man into space later this month, sources say. But analysts have warned that the mission may be postponed by managers of China's military-run space programme.

A successful launch of the Shenzhou 5 space capsule would make China the third nation to send a human into orbit — and set up China's emerging space programme for a twenty-first-century rivalry with that of the United States.

Government officials and semi-official sources have suggested throughout the year that the flight is due to take place in the middle of this month, but no official date has been released. Phillip Clark, head of the UK-based Molniya Space Consultancy, speculates that China will announce the flight at very short notice and air it live on television.

But even basic details of the flight, such as the number of 'taikonauts' who will be on board, have remained closely guarded. An official at one Chinese space-research organization says that, for safety reasons, only a single person will ride in the three-seat launch vessel. “This will be a symbolic flight,” the official says.

But Clark suggests that China might try to send more than one person into space, to get one-up on the initial, solo flights by the Soviet Union and the United States, four decades ago.

Many of China's space scientists and engineers consider the space programme to be a scientific one, even though it falls within the military budget. They want to see an end to US export-control rules that block collaboration with NASA and exclude China from the International Space Station project.

A success with Shenzhou 5 might move China towards its goal of having its own space station, observers of the programme say. The next step would be to carry out docking exercises between a Shenzhou craft and another orbital module.

China's manned space programme has been progressing slowly — it is already four years since the country launched its first unmanned space capsule. But time is not a pressing issue for the Chinese space programme, comments Brian Harvey, a space analyst based in Ireland. “It is a slow, determined and stable programme,” he says. “They aren't racing against anybody.”