london

European countries are making a bid to prevent members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from blocking the signing of a new international treaty limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases that are believed to contribute to global warming.

The government of the Netherlands, acting on behalf of the 15 members of the European Union (EU), has tabled an amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that would allow the treaty to be adopted by a three-quarters majority of countries if the parties fail to reach a consensus.

The requirement that such a treaty be backed by a consensus has put OPEC countries in a strong bargaining position (see Nature 378, 524; 524; 1997). Their delegates are expected to oppose the proposed amendment strongly when it is discussed at the convention's annual conference in Kyoto, Japan, in December.

But EU governments are apparently worried that, unless parties to the convention are able to vote on the treaty by majority, the oil-exporting countries and their allies could use the consensus requirement to block any proposals they disagree with.

Parties to the climate convention have already agreed to approve a treaty to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide at the Kyoto meeting. Oil-exporting countries are demanding compensation for revenues they will lose if countries reduce their fossil fuel use to comply with the treaty. They are backed by the G77 group of developing countries, including India and China, and by at least one US fossil-fuel lobby group.

But observers such as Farhana Yamin, director of the Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development at the University of London, say that the treaty is unlikely to include such provisions.

Yamin says the EU proposal appears to have two goals. “It ensures that the adoption of [the treaty] at Kyoto cannot be blocked by a small minority, and it weakens the bargaining position of such countries in the negotiations leading up to Kyoto.”

Amendments to the climate convention normally need to be ratified by the parliaments of each signatory country before entering into force. This could potentially delay a vote on a greenhouse gas treaty for at least two or three years.

EU lawyers point out that the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties allows an amendment to come into force provisionally if it receives enough support, opening up the possibility of majority voting on a greenhouse gas treaty.

But one leading environment lawyer says that the proposed amendment could still be legally vulnerable, particularly if the treaty is approved by close to the required majority. “If one or two countries decided to change their minds afterwards, the entire treaty could potentially collapse,” he warns.