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A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere

Nature volume 382, pages 3946 (04 July 1996) | Download Citation

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Abstract

The observed spatial patterns of temperature change in the free atmosphere from 1963 to 1987 are similar to those predicted by state-of-the-art climate models incorporating various combinations of changes in carbon dioxide, anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and stratospheric ozone concentrations. The degree of pattern similarity between models and observations increases through this period. It is likely that this trend is partially due to human activities, although many uncertainties remain, particularly relating to estimates of natural variability.

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Affiliations

  1. Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intelcomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550, USA

    • B. D. Santer
    •  & K. E. Taylor
  2. Atmospheric Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550, USA

    • K. E. Taylor
    •  & J. E. Penner
  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000, USA

    • T. M. L. Wigley
  4. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell RG12 2SY, UK

    • T. C. Johns
    • , J. F. B. Mitchell
    •  & S. Tett
  5. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

    • P. D. Jones
  6. Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, Monash University, Clayton VIC 3168, Australia

    • D. J. Karoly
  7. NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, PO Box 308, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA

    • A. H. Oort
    • , V. Ramaswamy
    • , M. D. Schwarzkopf
    •  & R. J. Stouffer

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https://doi.org/10.1038/382039a0

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