Abstract
THE Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault midway between San Francisco and Los Angeles has experienced six moderate-sized earthquakes since 1850, with an average recurrence time of about 22 years. Based on this regular behaviour, and the occurrence of the most recent earthquake in 1966, a shock of local magnitude ML=5.7 is expected to occur by 19931,2. Here we suggest that a current lack of small earthquakes on this segment could be a precursory anomaly to the next characteristic Parkfield earthquake. Only four earthquakes of M≥2.5 have occurred on the segment since January 1986, whereas twenty would have been expected, extrapolating from the mean background rate. Comparison with other cases of precursory quiescence suggests that the M = 5.7 earthquake should occur in the next two years, rupturing the same 35-km fault segment that ruptured in 19663.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bakun, W. H. & McEvilly, T. V. J. geophys. Res. 89, 3051–3058 (1984).
Bakun, W. H. & Lindh, A. G. Science 229, 619–624 (1985).
Brown, R. D. Jr et al. Geol. Surv., prof. Pap. U.S. 597 (1967).
Wyss, M. & Burford, R. O. Nature 329, 323–325 (1987).
Kisslinger, C., McDonald, C. & Bowman, J. R. Proc. IASPEI 32 (1985).
Kisslinger, C. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 78, 218–229 (1988).
Reasenberg, P. J. geophys. Res. 90, 5479–5495 (1985).
Wyss, M. & Habermann, R. E. Pure appl. Geophys. 126, 319–332 (1988).
Wyss, M. & Habermann, R. E. Pure appl. Geophys. 126, 333–356 (1988).
Wyss, M. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 76, 785–800 (1986).
Wyss, M., Klein, F. W. & Johnston, A. C. J. geophy. Res. 86, 3881–3900 (1981).
Cao, T. & Aki, K. Geol. Surv. U.S., Open file Rep. 87-591 934–957 (1987).
Snoke, J. A., Taylor, D. W. A. & Sacks, I. S. Eos 70, 1229 (1989).
Habermann, R. E. J. geophys. Res. 88, 5056–5064 (1983).
Habermann, R. E. Pure appl. Geophys. 126, 279–318 (1988).
Habermann, R. E. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 72, 93–112 (1982).
Habermann, R. E. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 76, 1660–1667 (1986).
Habermann, R. E. & Wyss, M. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 74, 1743–1755 (1984).
Bodin, P., Wyss, M. & Habermann, R. E. Eos 70, 1230 (1989).
Aviles, C. A. & Valdes, C. M. Eos 70, 1228 (1989).
Wyss, M. & Burford, R. O. Geol. Surv. U.S. Open File Rep. 85-745 367–426 (1985).
Nishenko, S. P. & Buland, R. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 77, 1382–1399 (1987).
Davis, P. M., Jackson, D. D. & Kagan, Y. Y. Bull. seism. Soc. Am. 79, 1439–1450 (1989).
Wyss, M., Slater, L. & Burford, R. O. Nature 345, 428–431 (1990).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wyss, M., Bodin, P. & Habermann, R. Seismic quiescence at Parkfield: an independent indication of an imminent earthquake. Nature 345, 426–428 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1038/345426a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/345426a0
This article is cited by
-
The instrumental seismicity of the Jordan Dead Sea transform
Arabian Journal of Geosciences (2017)
-
Conditional Probabilities for Large Events Estimated by Small Earthquake Rate
Pure and Applied Geophysics (2016)
-
Continuous-cyclic variations in the b-value of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution
Earthquake Science (2013)
-
Anomalies of Seismic Activity and Transient Crustal Deformations Preceding the 2005 M 7.0 Earthquake West of Fukuoka
Pure and Applied Geophysics (2010)
-
Case 23 nomination of precursory seismic quiescence as a significant precursor
Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH (1997)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.
