Abstract
VARIOUS mechanisms have been suggested whereby clouds might take part in or initiate climate change, including changes in cloud amounts, liquid-water paths and droplet sizes1–11. Previous studies of the sensitivity of the Earth's radiation budget to cloud liquid-water path and droplet size were made with one-dimensional or even simpler models1–6,12,13, which cannot represent the real cloud distribution. Here I present the results of a study that uses a three-dimensional general circulation model, which should give more reliable estimates. The top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing by doubled carbdn dioxide concentrations can be balanced by modest relative increases of ∼15–20% in the amount of low clouds and 20-35% in liquid-water path, and by decreases of 15–20% in mean drop radius (depending on the version of the model). This indicates that a minimum relative accuracy of ∼5% is needed, both to simulate these quantities in climate models and to estimate climate response by monitoring them over extended periods from satellite platforms.
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Slingo, A. Sensitivity of the Earth's radiation budget to changes in low clouds. Nature 343, 49–51 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1038/343049a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/343049a0
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