Abstract
Recent homogenized near-surface temperature data over the land and oceans of both hemispheres during the past 130 years are combined to produce the first comprehensive estimates of global mean temperature. The results show little trend in the nineteenth century, marked warming to 1940, relatively steady conditions to the mid-1970s and a subsequent rapid warming. The warmest 3 years have all occurred in the 1980s.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Wigley, T. M. L., Angell, J. K. & Jones, P. D. in Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide (eds MacCracken, M. C. & Luther, F. M.) 55–90 (U.S. Dept of Energy, 1985).
Hansen, J. et al. Science 213, 957–966 (1981).
Shearman, R. J. Met. Mag. 112, 1–10 (1983).
Folland, C. K., Parker, D. E. & Kates, F. E. Nature 310, 670–673 (1984).
Woodruff, S. D. in Proc. 3rd Conf. on Climate Variations and Symp. on Contemporary Climate: 1850-2100, 14–15 (American Meteorological Society, Boston, 1985).
Slutz, R. J. et al. Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set Release 1 (NOAA Environmental Research Laboratories, Boulder, 1985).
Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D. & Kelly, P. M. in The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems (eds Bolin, B., Döös, B. R., Jäger, J. & Warrick, R. A.) (SCOPE series, Wiley, in the press).
Paltridge, G. W. & Woodruff, S. Mon. Weath. Rev. 109, 2427–2434 (1981).
Paltridge, G. W. Mon. Weath. Rev. 112, 1093–1095 (1984).
Barnett, T. P. in Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide (eds MacCracken, M. C. & Luther, F. M.) 91–107 (U.S. Dept of Energy, 1985).
Jones, P. D. et al. J. clim. appl. Met. 25, 161–179 (1986).
Jones, P. D., Raper, S.C.B. & Wigley, T. M. L. J. clim. appl. Met. 25 (in the press).
Bradley, R. S., Kelly, P. M., Jones, P. D., Diaz, H. F. & Goodess, C. A Climatic Data Bank for the Northern Hemisphere Land Areas, 1851–1980, DoE Tech. Rep. No. TR017 (U.S. Dept of Energy, 1985).
Bradley, R. S. & Jones, P. D. in Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide (eds MacCracken, M. C. & Luther, F. M.) 29–53 (U.S. Dept of Energy, 1985).
Wright, P. B. Mon. Weath. Rev. 114 (in the press).
Folland, C. K., Parker, D. E. & Newman, M. in Proc. 9th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, 70–85 (U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Washington DC, 1984).
Folland, C. K. & Kates, F. E. in Milankovitch and Climate (eds Berger, A., Imbrie, J., Hays, J., Kukla, G. & Saltzman, B.) 721–727 (Reidel, Dordrecht, 1984).
Barnett, T. P. Mon. Weath. Rev. 112, 303–312 (1984).
Cayan, D. R. Mon. Weath. Rev. 108, 1293–1301 (1980).
Saur, J. F. T. J. appl. Met. 2, 417–425 (1963).
James, R. W. & Fox, P. T. Comparative sea-surface temperature measurements, Marine Science Affairs Rep. No. 5, WMO Publ. No. 336 (Geneva, 1972).
Kirkaldy, A. W. British Shipping, Its History, Organization and Importance (Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner, London, 1919).
Krümmel, O. Handbuch der Ozeanographie, Vol. 1 (Engelhorn, Stuttgart, 1907).
Brooks, C. F. Mon. Weath. Rev. 54, 241–253 (1926).
Raper, S. C. B., Wigley, T .M. L., Mayes, P. R., Jones, P. D. & Salinger, M. J. Mon. Weath. Rev. 112, 1341–1353 (1984).
Raper, S. C. B., Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D., Kelly, P. M., Mayes, P. R. & Limbert, D. W. S. Nature 306, 458–459 (1984).
Kelly, P. M., Jones, P. D., Sear, C. B., Cherry, B. S. G. & Tavakol, R. K. Mon. Weath. Rev. 110, 71–83 (1982).
Wigley, T. M. L. & Schlesinger, M. E. Nature 315, 649–652 (1985).
Reynolds, R. W. & Gemmill, W. H. Trop. Ocean-Atmos. Newslett. No. 23, 4–5 (1984).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jones, P., Wigley, T. & Wright, P. Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984. Nature 322, 430–434 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1038/322430a0
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/322430a0
This article is cited by
-
Record-breaking High-temperature Outlook for 2023: An Assessment Based on the China Global Merged Temperature (CMST) Dataset
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2024)
-
Homogeneity Adjustment of Surface Temperature Data and Study of the Climate Variability Over Coastal Odisha by a Climate Departure Index
Pure and Applied Geophysics (2024)
-
Principal Component Analysis of Two-dimensional Functional Data with Serial Correlation
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics (2023)
-
Paradoxical behaviour of rainfall and temperature over ecologically sensitive areas along the Western Ghats
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (2023)
-
Understanding and building upon pioneering work of Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 laureates Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann: From greenhouse effect to Earth system science and beyond
Science China Earth Sciences (2022)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.
