Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I

Abstract

If the host population is taken to be a dynamic variable (rather than constant, as conventionally assumed), a wider understanding of the population biology of infectious diseases emerges. In this first part of a two-part article, mathematical models are developed, shown to fit data from laboratory experiments, and used to explore the evolutionary relations among transmission parameters. In the second part of the article, to be published in next week's issue, the models are extended to include indirectly transmitted infections, and the general implications for infectious diseases are considered.

References

  1. 1

    Park, T. Ecol. Monogr. 18, 267–307 (1948).

    Google Scholar 

  2. 2

    Lanciani, C. A. Ecology 56, 689–695 (1975).

    Google Scholar 

  3. 3

    Davis, J. W. & Anderson, R. C. (eds) Parasitic Diseases of Wild Mammals (Iowa State University Press, 1971).

  4. 4

    Naumov, N. P. The Ecology of Animals, Ch. 17 (University of Illinois Press, Chicago, 1972).

    Google Scholar 

  5. 5

    Davis, J. W., Anderson, R. C., Karstad, L. & Trainer, D. O. (eds) Infectious and Parasitic Diseases of Wild Birds (Iowa State University Press, 1971).

  6. 6

    Jennings, A. R. J. comp. Path. 64, 356–359 (1954).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. 7

    Jennings, A. R. Bird Study 8, 25–31 (1961).

    Google Scholar 

  8. 8

    Forrester, D. J. in Parasitic Diseases of Wild Mammals (eds Davis, J. W. & Anderson, R. C.) 158–173 (Iowa State University Press, 1971).

    Google Scholar 

  9. 9

    Uhazy, L. S., Holmes, J. C. & Stelfax, J. G. Can. J. Zool. 51, 817–824 (1973).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. 10

    Pearsall, W. H. New Biol. 17, 9–26 (1954).

    Google Scholar 

  11. 11

    Hilborn, R. and Sinclair, A. R. E. in Serengeti: Dynamics of an Ecosystem (eds Sinclair, A. R. W. & Norton-Griffiths, M.) (University of Chicago Press, 1979).

    Google Scholar 

  12. 12

    Price, P. W. Evolutionary Biology of Parasites (Princeton University Press, 1979).

    Google Scholar 

  13. 13

    Anderson, R. M. in Population Dynamics (eds Anderson, R. M., Turner, B. D. & Taylor, L. R.) (Blackwell, Oxford, 1979).

    Google Scholar 

  14. 14

    Crofton, H. D. Parasitology 63, 179–193 (1971).

    Google Scholar 

  15. 15

    Crofton, H. D. Parasitology 63, 343–364 (1971).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  16. 16

    Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. J. Anim. Ecol. 47, 219–247 (1978).

    Google Scholar 

  17. 17

    May, R. M. & Anderson, R. M. J. Anim. Ecol. 47, 249–267 (1978).

    Google Scholar 

  18. 18

    Barbehenn, K. R. Biotropica 1, 29–35 (1969).

    Google Scholar 

  19. 19

    Cornell, H. Am. Nat. 108, 880–883 (1974).

    Google Scholar 

  20. 20

    Carey, A. B. Ecol. Monogr. (in the press).

  21. 21

    Bradley, D. J. in Origins of Pest, Parasite, Disease and Weed Problems (eds Cherrett, J. M. & Sagar, G. R.) (Blackwell, Oxford, 1977).

    Google Scholar 

  22. 22

    Latham, M. C. Science 188, 561–565 (1975).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. 23

    McNeill, W. H. Plagues and People (Blackwell, Oxford, 1976).

    Google Scholar 

  24. 24

    Fenner, F. in The Impact of Civilization on the Biology of Man (ed. Boyden, S. W.) (University of Toronto Press, 1970).

    Google Scholar 

  25. 25

    Black, F. L. Science 187, 515–518 (1975).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  26. 26

    Bailey, N. T. J. The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases 2nd edn (Macmillan, New York, 1975).

    Google Scholar 

  27. 27

    Macdonald, G. The Epidemiology and Control of Malaria (Oxford University Press, 1957).

    Google Scholar 

  28. 28

    Macdonald, G. Dynamics of Tropical Disease (eds Bruce-Chwatt, L. J. & Glanville, V. J.) (Oxford University Press, 1973).

    Google Scholar 

  29. 29

    Bartlett, M. S. Stochastic Population Models in Ecology and Epidemiology (Methuen, Londan,1960).

    Google Scholar 

  30. 30

    Dietz, K. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 130, 505–528 (1967).

    Google Scholar 

  31. 31

    Waltman, P. Deterministic Threshold Models in the Theory of Epidemics (Lecture Notes in Biomathematics Vol. 1) (Springer, New York, 1974).

    Google Scholar 

  32. 32

    Yorke, J. A., Nathanson, N., Pianigiani, G. & Martin, J. Am. J. Epidem. 108, 103–123 (1979).

    Google Scholar 

  33. 33

    Hoppensteadt, F. C. Mathematical Theories of Populations: Demographics, Genetics, and Epidemics (SIAM, Philadelphia, 1976).

    Google Scholar 

  34. 34

    Dietz, K. in Epidemiology (eds Ludwig, D. & Cooke, K. L.) 104–121 (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, 1975).

    Google Scholar 

  35. 35

    Anderson, R. M. Parasitology 76, 119–157 (1978).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  36. 36

    May, R. M. & Anderson, R. M. Nature (next week's issue).

  37. 37

    Mimms, C. A. The Pathogenesis of Infectious Diseases (Academic, London, 1977).

    Google Scholar 

  38. 38

    Kimberlin, R. H. (ed.) Slow Virus Diseases of Animals and Man (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1976).

  39. 39

    Wabelin, D. J. Nature 273, 617–620 (1978).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  40. 40

    Soulsby, E. J. L. (ed.) Immunity to Animal Parasites (Academic, London, 1972).

  41. 41

    Fine, P. E. M. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 266, 173–194 (1975).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  42. 42

    Stiven, A. E. Ecol. Monogr. 34, 119–142 (1964).

    Google Scholar 

  43. 43

    Hines, R. S. & Spira, D. T. J. Fish Biol. 5, 385–392 (1973).

    Google Scholar 

  44. 44

    Robinson, G. W., Nathanson, N. & Hodous, J. Am. J. Epidem. 94, 91–100 (1971).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  45. 45

    Anderson, R. M., Whitfield, P. J. & Mills, C. A. J. Anim. Ecol. 46, 550–580 (1977).

    Google Scholar 

  46. 46

    Greenwood, M., Bradford-Hill, A., Topley, W. W. C. & Wilson, J. Experimental Epidemiology: Medical Research Council Special Report No. 209 (HMSO, London, 1936).

    Google Scholar 

  47. 47

    Greenwood, M. & Topley, W. W. C. J. Hyg. 26, 45–110 (1925).

    Google Scholar 

  48. 48

    Fenner, F. J. Immun. 63, 341–373 (1949).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  49. 49

    Fenner, F. J. Hyg. 46, 383–393 (1948).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  50. 50

    Kermack, W. O. & McKendrick, A. G. Proc. R. Soc. A 115, 700–721 (1927).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  51. 51

    Anderson, R. M. Nature 279, 150–152 (1979).

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  52. 52

    Roitt, I. M. Essential Immunology (Blackwell, Oxford, 1976).

    Google Scholar 

  53. 53

    Fox, J. P., Elreback, L., Scott, W., Gatewood, L. & Ackerman, E. Am. J. Epidem. 94, 179–180 (1971).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  54. 54

    Stuart-Harris, C. H. in Virus Virulence and Pathogenicity (CIBA Fdn Symp. 4) (Churchill Livingstone, London, 1960).

    Google Scholar 

  55. 55

    Deevey, E. S. Scient. Am. 203, 195–207 (1960).

    Google Scholar 

  56. 56

    Ehrlich, P. R., Ehrlich, A. H. & Holdren, J. P. Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment. Ch. 5 (Freeman, San Francisco, 1977).

    Google Scholar 

  57. 57

    Black, F. L. et al. Am. J. Epidem. 100, 230–250 (1974).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  58. 58

    Black, F. L. Science 187, 515–518 (1975).

    ADS  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  59. 59

    Matumota, M. Bact. Rev. 33, 404–418 (1969).

    Google Scholar 

  60. 60

    Nathanson, N., Yorke, J. H., Pianigiani, G. & Matin, J. in Persistent Viruses (eds Stevens, J., Todaro, G. J. & Fox, F. L.) (Academic, New York, 1978).

    Google Scholar 

  61. 61

    Tyrell, D. A. J. in Health and Disease in Tribal Societies (CIBA Fdn Symp. 49) (NorthHolland, Amsterdam, 1977).

    Google Scholar 

  62. 62

    Bartlett, M. S. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 120, 48–70 (1957).

    Google Scholar 

  63. 63

    Bartlett, M. S. J. R. Stat. Soc. A123, 37–44 (1960).

    Google Scholar 

  64. 64

    Black, F. L. J. theor. Biol. 11, 207–211 (1966).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  65. 65

    London, W. P. & Yorke, J. A. Am. J. Epidem. 98, 453–468 (1973).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  66. 66

    Yorke, J. A. & London, W. P. Am. J. Epidem. 98, 469–482 (1973).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  67. 67

    Fenner, F. & White, D. O. Medical Virology (Academic, New York, 1970).

    Google Scholar 

  68. 68

    Fenner, F., McAuslan, B. R., Mimms, C. A., Sambrook, J. & White, D. O. The Biology of Animal Viruses (Academic, New York, 1974).

    Google Scholar 

  69. 69

    Christie, A. B. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Clinical Practice (Churchill Livingstone, London, 1974).

    Google Scholar 

  70. 70

    Burnet, M. & White, D. O. Natural History of Infectious Disease (Cambridge University Press, 1972).

    Google Scholar 

  71. 71

    Health and Disease in Tribal Societies (CIBA Fdn Symp. 49) (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1977).

  72. 72

    Tanada, Y. in Biological Control of Insect Pests and Weeds (ed. DeBach, P.) (Chapman and Hall, London, 1964).

    Google Scholar 

  73. 73

    Bruce-Chwatt, L. J. & Bruce-Chwatt, J. M. Bull. N. Y. Acad. Med. 50, 1069–1080 (1974).

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  74. 74

    Smith, J. H., Dyck, J. R. & Connor, P. H. Am. J. trop. Med. Hyg. 25, 637–643 (1976).

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  75. 75

    Ford, J. (ed.) The Role of Trypanosomiasis in African Ecology: A Study of the Tsetse Fly Problem (Oxford University Press, 1971).

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Anderson, R., May, R. Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I. Nature 280, 361–367 (1979). https://doi.org/10.1038/280361a0

Download citation

Further reading

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter for a daily update on COVID-19 science.
Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing