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Forecasting Locust Outbreaks

Abstract

LOCUST infestations are characterized by violent fluctuations in size; the red locust, Nomadacris septemfasciata (Serville), in a self-contained, controlled, outbreak area has been shown to vary by a factor of over 750 times1,2. However great the effects that predators and parasites may have, they do not prevent these fluctuations and in fact the only factors that depress a population and, at the same time, vary directly in strength with the size of the population, appear to be the emigration of swarms3 and, nowadays, control with insecticides4. One therefore turns to weather as a non-density-dependent factor causing or permitting the large fluctuations, for there is no question of any spontaneous rhythm4.

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GUNN, D., SYMMONS, P. Forecasting Locust Outbreaks. Nature 184, 1425–1426 (1959). https://doi.org/10.1038/1841425a0

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