Abstract
IT is now generally agreed that population problems lie near the root of many others?social, economic and political?and that there can be no constructive statecraft whilst nothing accurate is known of the quantity of a people. It is established that from the beginning of the nineteenth century until 1914, the population of England had increased by 1-2 per cent a year, that during the period 1914-24 this annual increase had fallen to 0.47 per cent, and that in 1924–34 further to 0.44 per cent. It is commonly agreed that the slowing down of a population increase in the second period was due to the high war mortality, to the decrease of immigration, and to the diminution of fertility; and that the smallness of the population increase in the third period was due to a further decrease in fertility and immigration. It is further accepted that the greatest reproductive rate of England and Wales is now less than unity, and that this implies that whatever changes in mortality ensue, a continuous decline of the total population is inevitable unless something happens which will increase fertility well above its present level. This being so, it is highly desirable that attempts should be made to project present trends in fertility and mortality into the immediate future.
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Population Trends. Nature 137, 158 (1936). https://doi.org/10.1038/137158a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/137158a0