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| Open AccessInitial effective stress controls the nature of earthquakes
The authors show that seismogenic faults can be activated by stress perturbations by all possible modes of slip independently of the frictional properties. They demonstrate, that the nature of seismicity is mostly governed by the initial stress level along the faults.
- François X. Passelègue
- , Michelle Almakari
- & Marie Violay
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| Open AccessSouth China Sea documents the transition from wide continental rift to continental break up
The transition from wide continental rift to continental break-up remains enigmatic. Here, the authors show that northern margin of the South China Sea records the transition between wide continental rift to a highly extended continental margin, with strikingly similar structures and metamorphic core complexes to those described from the North American Cordillera and the Aegean.
- Hongdan Deng
- , Jianye Ren
- & Pan Luo
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| Open AccessAn exponential build-up in seismic energy suggests a months-long nucleation of slow slip in Cascadia
Using machine learning algorithms, the authors here identify slow slip precursors in the Cascadia subduction zone to last for months - which in turn argues for a much better predictability of slow slip rupture.
- Claudia Hulbert
- , Bertrand Rouet-Leduc
- & Paul A. Johnson
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| Open AccessHow satellite InSAR has grown from opportunistic science to routine monitoring over the last decade
In the past decade, a new generation of radar satellites have revolutionised our ability to measure Earth’s surface deformation globally and with unprecedented resolution. InSAR is transforming our understanding of faults, volcanoes and ground stability and increasingly influencing hazard management.
- Juliet Biggs
- & Tim J. Wright
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| Open AccessEarthquake transformer—an attentive deep-learning model for simultaneous earthquake detection and phase picking
The authors here present a deep learning model that simultaneously detects earthquake signals and measures seismic-phase arrival times. The model performs particularly well for cases with high background noise and the challenging task of picking the S wave arrival.
- S. Mostafa Mousavi
- , William L. Ellsworth
- & Gregory C. Beroza
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| Open AccessClustering earthquake signals and background noises in continuous seismic data with unsupervised deep learning
The authors here tackle the problem that too much seismic data is acquired worldwide to be evaluated in a timely fashion. Seydoux and colleagues develop a machine learning framework that can detect and cluster seismic signals in continuous seismic records.
- Léonard Seydoux
- , Randall Balestriero
- & Richard Baraniuk
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Article
| Open AccessDeep long period volcanic earthquakes generated by degassing of volatile-rich basaltic magmas
The origin of deep long-period earthquakes beneath active volcanoes that are sometimes considered as precursors to eruptions remains not fully understood. Here the authors show that these earthquakes can be generated by the rapid degassing in response to the slow decompression of magma over-saturated with H2O and CO2.
- Oleg Melnik
- , Vladimir Lyakhovsky
- & Olga Bergal-Kuvikas
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| Open AccessCascadia low frequency earthquakes at the base of an overpressured subduction shear zone
Regions of the subducting oceanic crust are often considered to be overpressured, owing to fluid trapped beneath an impermeable seal along the overlying inter-plate boundary. Here, the authors show that slow slip earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone occur immediately below a 6-10 km-thick shear zone, in which slab-derived fluids are likely trapped at near-lithostatic pore pressures.
- Andrew J. Calvert
- , Michael G. Bostock
- & Martyn J. Unsworth
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Article
| Open AccessAutomatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand
In this study, the authors investigate the predictability of sudden eruptions, motivated by the 2019 eruption at Whakaari (White Island), New Zealand. The paper proposes a machine learning approach that is able to identify eruption precursors in data streaming from a single seismic station at Whakaari.
- D. E. Dempsey
- , S. J. Cronin
- & A. W. Kempa-Liehr
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Article
| Open AccessLimited and localized magmatism in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province
The Central Atlantic Magmatic Province is the most aerially extensive magmatic event in Earth’s history, yet few constraints exist on the volumes of intrusions at depth. Here, the authors find limited intrusive volumes beneath the South Georgia Rift, consistent with modest potential mantle temperatures (<1500 °C) related to syn-rift decompression melting.
- R. E. Marzen
- , D. J. Shillington
- & S. H. Harder
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Article
| Open AccessAutomated design of a convolutional neural network with multi-scale filters for cost-efficient seismic data classification
The authors present an automated design approach to propose a new neural network architecture for seismic data analysis. The new architecture classifies multiple seismic reflection datasets at extremely low computational cost compared with conventional architectures for image classification.
- Zhi Geng
- & Yanfei Wang
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Article
| Open AccessWere changes in stress state responsible for the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes?
Based on b-value mapping, the author proposes the high likelihood of future rupture in the area of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes.
- K. Z. Nanjo
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Article
| Open AccessUnderstanding rate effects in injection-induced earthquakes
- Maryam Alghannam
- & Ruben Juanes
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| Open AccessThe influence of the brittle-ductile transition zone on aftershock and foreshock occurrence
Earth surface continues to slip after large earthquakes at a slow velocity for a period of a year or more. In this study, the authors show how such slow slip before and after large earthquakes relates to the interaction of the brittle zone of the fault with the ductile zone at greater depth.
- Giuseppe Petrillo
- , Eugenio Lippiello
- & Alberto Rosso
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Article
| Open AccessCausal mechanism of injection-induced earthquakes through the Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake case study
The authors here suggest a causal mechanism for injection-induced earthquakes. They further suggest pore pressure modeling as a practical alternative to direct in-situ pore pressure observation which can then be used for stress build-up monitoring.
- I. W. Yeo
- , M. R. M. Brown
- & K. K. Lee
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Article
| Open AccessSeismic ground vibrations give advanced early-warning of subglacial floods
Subglacial lakes and jökulhlaups (glacier outburst floods) are common in volcanic and glaciated environments, and can pose potential threats to communities living downstream. Here, the authors find that seismic tremor signals during subglacial floods can be used to locate and track the speed and size of the flood before it arrives at the river system, and improves previous methods of early glacial flood warning by a factor of 5.
- Eva P. S. Eibl
- , Christopher J. Bean
- & Kristin S. Vogfjörd
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Article
| Open AccessDistributed acoustic sensing of microseismic sources and wave propagation in glaciated terrain
In this study, Walter and colleagues deploy a 1 km long fiber optics cable on a glacier surface. Via the use of distributed acoustic sensing, the authors are capable of monitoring glacier dynamics and Alpine mass movements.
- F. Walter
- , D. Gräff
- & A. Fichtner
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Article
| Open AccessEffect of sulfur on sound velocity of liquid iron under Martian core conditions
Applying high-pressure and -temperature experiments, the authors here measure sound velocities in various liquid Fe-S alloys under conditions expected for the upper Martian core. The results together with future InSight mission data will help to understand whether the Martian core is molten Fe-S.
- Keisuke Nishida
- , Yuki Shibazaki
- & Kei Hirose
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| Open AccessSlip bursts during coalescence of slow slip events in Cascadia
Slow slip events are commonly observed on natural faults all around the world and are suggested to precede large magnitude and/or high frequency earthquakes. The authors here identify merging phases of slow slip events using continuous GPS measurements and define areas and periods at risk of large earthquake occurrence.
- Quentin Bletery
- & Jean-Mathieu Nocquet
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence for a serpentinized plate interface favouring continental subduction
The dynamics of continental subduction is largely controlled by the rheological properties of rocks involved along the subduction channel. Here, the authors reveal a prominent, yet previously undetected, low-velocity body beneath the Western Alps, along the plate interface between the European slab and the overlying Adriatic mantle, which they interpret as a serpentinite layer.
- Liang Zhao
- , Marco G. Malusà
- & Stefano Solarino
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| Open AccessSeismic evidence for subduction-induced mantle flows underneath Middle America
The motions of subducted slabs are expected to drive mantle flow around slab edges, however, evidence of deep mantle flow has so far remained elusive. Here, the authors present a Full Waveform Inversion 3-D anisotropy model which allows them to infer deep subduction-induced mantle flows underneath the Mid-Americas and the Caribbean.
- Hejun Zhu
- , Robert J. Stern
- & Jidong Yang
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| Open AccessDirect structural evidence of Indian continental subduction beneath Myanmar
Indian continental subduction can explain crustal deformation, magmatic activity and uplift of the Tibetan Plateau following collision, however, the nature of the Indian subducting slab beneath Myanmar and the related tectonic regime remain unclear. Here, the authors present direct structural evidence of present-day Indian continental subduction beneath Asia.
- Tianyu Zheng
- , Yumei He
- & Myo Thant
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Article
| Open AccessEarthquake nucleation in the lower crust by local stress amplification
This study investigates deep intracontinental earthquakes. Based on field data from exhumed lower crustal pseudotachylytes and mylonites from Lofoten, northern Norway, the authors describe a novel model of earthquake nucleation in the lower crust as a transient consequence of ongoing localised aseismic creep.
- L. R. Campbell
- , L. Menegon
- & G. Pennacchioni
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Article
| Open AccessTomography of the source zone of the great 2011 Tohoku earthquake
Using data recorded by a new seafloor seismic network, the authors reveal the detailed 3D structure of the source zone of the great 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, which sheds new light on the mechanism of the great earthquake and tsunami.
- Yuanyuan Hua
- , Dapeng Zhao
- & Yixian Xu
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Article
| Open AccessRain and small earthquakes maintain a slow-moving landslide in a persistent critical state
In this study, the authors show the interaction between seismic activity and rainfalls on landslide movement and how their timing controls landslide stability and motion.
- Noélie Bontemps
- , Pascal Lacroix
- & Edu Taipe
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Article
| Open AccessWeak phases production and heat generation control fault friction during seismic slip
Decrease of friction during seismic slip is linked to temperature increase and weak phases production inside the fault core. Here the authors propose a mathematical framework which explains the frictional behaviour of all materials reported in literature and precisely captures material weakening during fault slip.
- Hadrien Rattez
- & Manolis Veveakis
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Article
| Open AccessCascading and pulse-like ruptures during the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in the Eastern California Shear Zone
The authors here investigate in the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes in Searles Valley, California. Based on geodetic and seismological data, the authors separate the event into two earthquakes (Mw 6.5 and 7.1) and produce kinematic slip models of the event.
- Kejie Chen
- , Jean-Philippe Avouac
- & Chuang Shi
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Article
| Open AccessAfrican cratonic lithosphere carved by mantle plumes
Cratons represent the ancient cores of continental plates and are generally thought to have been stable since the Archean. Here however, the authors combine seismic analysis with kimberlite data to infer complete destruction of cratonic lithosphere in some places of the African continent.
- Nicolas Luca Celli
- , Sergei Lebedev
- & Carmen Gaina
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Article
| Open AccessDistributed sensing of earthquakes and ocean-solid Earth interactions on seafloor telecom cables
Existing fibers beneath the world’s oceans can in principle be used as seismic sensors, but the full potential of this possibility has yet to be explored. Here, the authors demonstrate the feasibility of distributed acoustic sensing in a coastal fiber as a sensor for earthquakes and wave phenomena.
- A. Sladen
- , D. Rivet
- & P. Lamare
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Article
| Open AccessKinetics and detectability of the bridgmanite to post-perovskite transformation in the Earth's D″ layer
The D\({}^{{\prime\prime} }\) layer in the Earth’s lower mantle involves a seismic discontinuity which is often assigned to a mineral phase transition to post-perovskite, however, as this phase transition occurs over broad region the assignment of seismic boundaries remains unclear. Here, the authors find that due to the kinetics of the bridgmanite to post-perovskite transformation, thick transition layers can be detected by seismic reflections, unlike previously thought.
- Christopher Langrand
- , Denis Andrault
- & Sébastien Merkel
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| Open AccessSouthern Africa crustal anisotropy reveals coupled crust-mantle evolution for over 2 billion years
The long-term stability of Precambrian continental lithosphere depends on the rheology of the lithospheric mantle as well as the coupling between crust and mantle lithosphere. Here, the authors study crustal seismic anisotropy to reveal that the crust and mantle lithosphere of southern Africa have been coupled since cratonisation, over 2 billion years ago.
- H. Thybo
- , M. Youssof
- & I. M. Artemieva
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence of reactivation of a hydrothermal system from seismic anisotropy changes
In this study, the authors monitor a hydrothermal fluid surge through seismic anisotropy changes at the Hakone volcanic field, Japan. The authors find the anisotropy changes to be set off by the seismic waves of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, that reactivated the hydrothermal system.
- Maria Saade
- , Kohtaro Araragi
- & Florent Brenguier
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Article
| Open AccessObtaining free USArray data by multi-dimensional seismic reconstruction
The USArray of EarthScope is a seismic broadband network acquiring global seismic data. Here, the authors apply an iterative rank-reduction method to obtain free earthquake data at locations where no seismic stations are available as well as enhancing existing data recorded by the USArray.
- Yangkang Chen
- , Min Bai
- & Yunfeng Chen
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Article
| Open AccessThe risks of long-term re-injection in supercritical geothermal systems
Can we pump water into deep active volcanic areas? Here, the authors model the effect of water circulation into supercritical geothermal systems and show that the effect of rock cooling dominates the seismicity increase over the pore pressure changes.
- Francesco Parisio
- , Victor Vilarrasa
- & Thomas Nagel
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Article
| Open AccessForecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake
Forecasting aftershock earthquakes is a critical step in improving seismic hazard mitigation. The authors here combine Bayesian methods with extreme value theory to tackle this problem - and manage to estimate the maximum magnitude of an expected earthquake as well as the arrival times in a pre-defined window.
- Robert Shcherbakov
- , Jiancang Zhuang
- & Yosihiko Ogata
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| Open AccessEarthquake crisis unveils the growth of an incipient continental fault system
The Al-Idrissi Fault System in the Alboran Sea is a major tectonic structure in its initial stage. By using bathymetric and seismic reflection data, the authors unravel a 3D geometry for the AIFS, which corresponds to a crustal-scale boundary and provides a unique model of the inception and growth of a young plate boundary fault system.
- Eulàlia Gràcia
- , Ingo Grevemeyer
- & César R. Ranero
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Article
| Open AccessHigh density oilfield wastewater disposal causes deeper, stronger, and more persistent earthquakes
Oilfield wastewater is commonly discarded by pumping it into deep geologic formations, but this process is now known to cause earthquakes. Here, he authors show that high-density oilfield wastewater may sink deeper in the Earth’s crust than previously considered possible, thus increasing fluid pressure and inducing earthquakes for years after injection rates decline.
- Ryan M. Pollyea
- , Martin C. Chapman
- & Hao Wu
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Article
| Open AccessInterseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul
The state of the Main Marmara Fault (fault segment of the North Anatolian Fault) is widely discussed, towards whether it is creeping or locked. The authors here present seafloor geodetic measurements which indicate a complete locking of the fault in the central part of the Sea of Marmara. This provides significant information for the assessment of both seismic and potential tsunami hazard to Istanbul.
- Dietrich Lange
- , Heidrun Kopp
- & Louis Géli
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Article
| Open AccessForecasting of the first hour aftershocks by means of the perceived magnitude
The timing and locations of aftershocks following the initial impact of an earthquake are key to mitigate potential further hazards. Here the authors use the seismic ground velocity as input parameter to provide accurate probabilities of post seismic occurrence within 30 min of the main shock.
- E. Lippiello
- , G. Petrillo
- & V. Karakostas
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Article
| Open AccessCoulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard
Scattered earthquake locations in the same region cannot be explained solely by coseismic Coulomb stress on planar faults. Instead, the authors suggest Coulomb pre-stress to influence earthquake locations. Pre-stress was modelled on strike-variable faults and consists of coseismic and interseismic Coulomb stress.
- Z. K. Mildon
- , G. P. Roberts
- & S. Toda
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Article
| Open AccessThe mechanism of tidal triggering of earthquakes at mid-ocean ridges
Tidal triggering of earthquakes at Axial Volcano on the Juan de Fuca ridge is shown to be driven by tidally induced magma chamber inflation. Fitting the data to theory requires that the frictional parameter A be much smaller than laboratory measurements indicate.
- Christopher H. Scholz
- , Yen Joe Tan
- & Fabien Albino
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Article
| Open AccessSeismic evidence for a mantle suture and implications for the origin of the Canadian Cordillera
Two challenging theories, accretion versus collision, approach the orogenesis of the North American Cordillera. Here, the authors present new, high-resolution geophysical datasets consistent with a model of collision in response to westward subduction of the North American craton.
- Yunfeng Chen
- , Yu Jeffrey Gu
- & Pascal Audet
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Article
| Open AccessRapid mantle flow with power-law creep explains deformation after the 2011 Tohoku mega-quake
Large subduction zone earthquakes like the M 9.0 Tohoku earthquake of 2011 are followed by transient surface deformation. Here, the authors show this to be caused by rapid flow taking place in the asthenosphere due to temporarily decreased viscosity because of coseismic stress.
- Ryoichiro Agata
- , Sylvain D. Barbot
- & Takane Hori
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Article
| Open AccessSlab morphology and deformation beneath Izu-Bonin
In the 1000 km long Izu-Bonin subduction zone to the south of Tokyo, the Pacific Plate descends beneath the Philippine Sea Plate. Here the authors use teleseismic double-difference tomography to image the complex morphology of the Izu-Bonin slab, especially in the mantle transition zone.
- Haijiang Zhang
- , Fan Wang
- & Hao Guo
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Article
| Open AccessMechanical behaviour of fluid-lubricated faults
The effect of fluid viscosity on fault mechanics is mainly conjectured by theoretical models. Here, the authors present experimental data from rock friction experiments, showing both static and dynamic friction coefficients to decrease with viscosity and dynamic friction to depend on the Sommerfeld number.
- C. Cornelio
- , E. Spagnuolo
- & M. Violay
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Article
| Open AccessDynamic viability of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake cascade on weak crustal faults
The 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand raised the discussion about how a complex fault system operates. Here the authors propose a dynamic rupture scenario that reproduces key characteristics of the event and show that the fault system works at low apparent friction.
- Thomas Ulrich
- , Alice-Agnes Gabriel
- & Wenbin Xu
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Article
| Open AccessBimodal seismicity in the Himalaya controlled by fault friction and geometry
There is increasing evidence that the seismicity of large Himalayan earthquakes can be bimodal, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. Here, the authors present a model and show that the bimodal seismicity results from a relatively higher friction and a non-planar geometry of the Himalayan megathrust.
- Luca Dal Zilio
- , Ylona van Dinther
- & Jean-Philippe Avouac
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Article
| Open AccessSeasonal modulation of deep slow-slip and earthquakes on the Main Himalayan Thrust
The interaction between seasonally-induced non-tectonic and tectonic deformation along the Himalayan plate boundary is still debated. Here, the authors propose that seasonal hydrological loading can influence tectonic deformation along this plate boundary using continuous GPS measurements and satellite data.
- Dibyashakti Panda
- , Bhaskar Kundu
- & Amit Kumar Bansal
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Article
| Open AccessPhysics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas
Reinjection of saltwater, co-produced with oil, has the potential to trigger damaging earthquakes. Here, using Oklahoma and Kansas as an example, the authors present a new physics-based methodology to forecast future probabilities of potentially damaging induced-earthquakes in space and time.
- Cornelius Langenbruch
- , Matthew Weingarten
- & Mark D. Zoback