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Widespread societal and ecological impacts from projected Tibetan Plateau lake expansion
Model projections suggest that, even under a low-emissions scenario, lakes on the Tibetan Plateau will increase in area by about 50% by 2100, with widespread impacts on infrastructure and ecosystems.
- Fenglin Xu
- , Guoqing Zhang
- & Jean-François Crétaux
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Article |
Steady threefold Arctic amplification of externally forced warming masked by natural variability
External climate forcing has consistently amplified Arctic warming by a factor of three over the last 50 years, but natural variability has induced substantial fluctuations, according to a comparison of observations and model simulations.
- Wenyu Zhou
- , L. Ruby Leung
- & Jian Lu
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Editorial |
Clouds and climate
Cloud uncertainties have been a persistent problem in climate science, but innovative approaches are starting to make headway.
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Article
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Emergent temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon driven by mineral associations
Temperature sensitivity of bulk soil carbon stocks is controlled by the compositional distribution between mineral-associated and particulate carbon, according to analyses of global soil carbon pools.
- Katerina Georgiou
- , Charles D. Koven
- & Robert B. Jackson
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Article
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Regional variations in relative sea-level changes influenced by nonlinear vertical land motion
A probabilistic reconstruction of vertical land motion reveals regional variations in relative sea-level changes and large uncertainties in sea-level projections due to nonlinear effects.
- Julius Oelsmann
- , Marta Marcos
- & Florian Seitz
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Article |
Atmospheric methane variability through the Last Glacial Maximum and deglaciation mainly controlled by tropical sources
Abrupt changes in atmospheric methane through the last deglaciation were largely the result of tropical sources responding to shifting rainfall patterns, according to a comparison of precisely dated ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica.
- Ben Riddell-Young
- , Julia Rosen
- & Thomas Blunier
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Research Briefing |
Bubble bursts increase melt rates of tidewater glaciers
Glacier ice contains high-pressure air bubbles, which burst into seawater as ice melts at tidewater glacier termini. Laboratory measurements found that these bubbles double the rate of ice melt. Theoretically, this effect could be even larger in a real glacier. However, bursting bubbles are currently neglected in models projecting sea level rise.
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Recent global climate feedback controlled by Southern Ocean cooling
The temporal evolution of the net global climate feedback in recent decades has been governed by sea surface temperature patterns in the Southern Ocean, according to climate model simulations.
- Sarah M. Kang
- , Paulo Ceppi
- & In-Sik Kang
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Comment |
Communicating the link between climate change and extreme rain events
Extreme rainfall events are often linked to climate change based on simple thermodynamic arguments, but complex dynamic processes also play a role. Scientists have a responsibility to ensure they provide accurate information to the media and public.
- Andrew D. King
- , Kimberley J. Reid
- & Kate R. Saunders
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Article
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Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations
Uncertainty in stratospheric water vapour projections is reduced using an observational constraint based on historical co-variations between atmospheric temperature and water vapour.
- Peer Nowack
- , Paulo Ceppi
- & Manoj Joshi
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Editorial |
Reversing climate overshoot
Temporarily overshooting climate targets is a distinct possibility given our current emissions trajectory. It is crucial that we understand which of the associated impacts are reversible, and to what extent.
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Direct observation of Earth’s spectral long-wave feedback parameter
Earth’s spectral long-wave feedback parameter can be directly observed using satellite measurements, revealing the influence of relative humidity on climate feedbacks.
- Florian E. Roemer
- , Stefan A. Buehler
- & Viju O. John
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Article
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Rapid loss of complex polymers and pyrogenic carbon in subsoils under whole-soil warming
Structurally complex polymeric compounds, such as pyrogenic carbon, that have been previously considered long-term carbon sinks in soils can rapidly be lost by decomposition at warmer temperatures, according to 4.5 years of whole-soil warming experiments.
- Cyrill U. Zosso
- , Nicholas O. E. Ofiti
- & Michael W. I. Schmidt
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Editorial |
Unravelling ENSO complexity
Progress in understanding and modelling ENSO complexity provides a promising opportunity to both improve seasonal climate prediction and constrain future anthropogenic warming.
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Article |
Climatic and tectonic drivers of late Oligocene Antarctic ice volume
Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the late Oligocene was caused primarily by a tectonically driven marine transgression, according to a compilation of Ross Sea surface temperature estimates throughout the Cenozoic.
- B. Duncan
- , R. McKay
- & J. Bendle
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Article |
Reservoir CO2 and CH4 emissions and their climate impact over the period 1900–2060
Reservoir-induced radiative forcing is increasing globally due to rising methane emissions outweighing declining carbon dioxide emissions, according to modelling based on reservoir surface area observations.
- Cynthia Soued
- , John A. Harrison
- & Yves T. Prairie
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Review Article |
Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates
Hurricanes and typhoons are tracking further poleward due to the effects of climate change, according to a synthesis of numerical modelling results, observations and palaeoclimate records.
- Joshua Studholme
- , Alexey V. Fedorov
- & Kevin Hodges
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Article |
Great Plains storm intensity since the last glacial controlled by spring surface warming
Shifts in the seasonal timing of land surface warming set the severity of storm systems in the southern Great Plains since the last glacial, according to a hydroclimate proxy record from Texas and palaeoclimate modelling.
- Chijun Sun
- , Timothy M. Shanahan
- & Priyadarsi D. Roy
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Article |
Amplified warming of extreme temperatures over tropical land
Climate change warms extreme hot days over tropical land more strongly than the mean temperature as hot days are dry, according to a new theory and analysis of global climate models.
- Michael P. Byrne
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Article |
Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming
Southern Ocean deep convection governs the magnitude of long-term warming in response to greenhouse gases, according to an analysis of Earth system models.
- Ada Gjermundsen
- , Aleksi Nummelin
- & Michael Schulz
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Perspective |
Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change
The combined effects of decades-long warming and particularly vigorous injections of atmospheric heat from lower latitudes were the likely culprits for sharp declines in sea-ice extent around Antarctica starting in 2016.
- Clare Eayrs
- , Xichen Li
- & David M. Holland
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Article |
Intensification of El Niño-induced atmospheric anomalies under greenhouse warming
Greenhouse gas-induced warming intensifies atmospheric variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, according to an analysis of global climate model projections.
- Kaiming Hu
- , Gang Huang
- & Shang-Ping Xie
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Article |
Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will prevent tropical regions from reaching the limit of human adaptability, according to robust dynamical constraints on projected heat stress.
- Yi Zhang
- , Isaac Held
- & Stephan Fueglistaler
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Perspective |
Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy
Uncertainties and subjective choices affecting remaining carbon budgets should be fully considered when applying them to international and national climate policies.
- H. Damon Matthews
- , Katarzyna B. Tokarska
- & Kirsten Zickfeld
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Article |
Carbon and nitrogen cycling in Yedoma permafrost controlled by microbial functional limitations
Carbon dioxide emissions from permafrost thaw are substantially enhanced by relieving microbial functional limitations, according to incubation experiments on Yedoma permafrost.
- Sylvain Monteux
- , Frida Keuper
- & Ellen Dorrepaal
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Editorial |
Between a cloud and a hot place
Low climate sensitivity has been ruled out, but the door remains open for alarmingly high estimates. Improved understanding of cloud feedbacks is vital for better constraining the upper limit of future warming.
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Equilibrium climate sensitivity above 5 °C plausible due to state-dependent cloud feedback
Simulations suggest a shift to a high sensitivity of Earth’s climate to increasing CO2 can be attributed to the decline in the ice content in clouds as the climate warms.
- Jenny Bjordal
- , Trude Storelvmo
- & Tim Carlsen
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Article |
The state of rock debris covering Earth’s glaciers
A global map of rock-debris cover on mountain glaciers shows its spatial distribution and evolution.
- Sam Herreid
- & Francesca Pellicciotti
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Article |
Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns
Regional warming patterns control temperature variance and skewness changes in the Northern Hemisphere, suggests analysis of tracked temperature anomalies.
- Talia Tamarin-Brodsky
- , Kevin Hodges
- & Theodore G. Shepherd
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Article |
Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet
A high-resolution update of Antarctic bed topography using mass conservation reveals broad stabilizing ridges for glaciers flowing across the Transantarctic Mountains, and stabilizing slopes beneath Moscow University, Totten and Lambert glacier system.
- Mathieu Morlighem
- , Eric Rignot
- & Duncan A. Young
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Perspective |
Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy
Different methods for determining global mean temperature change are preferable for different purposes, such as estimating carbon budgets versus consistency with the achievement of the Paris Agreement, argues a Perspective that outlines methodological choices and recommends decision pathways.
- Katarzyna B. Tokarska
- , Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- & Nathan P. Gillett
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Article |
Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean–jet stream connection
Decadal averages of March precipitation in western Europe can be predicted by exploiting links with the jet stream and ocean along with skilful predictions of sea surface temperatures, according to an analysis of observations and reanalysis products.
- Isla R. Simpson
- , Stephen G. Yeager
- & Clara Deser
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Article |
Current level and rate of warming determine emissions budgets under ambitious mitigation
A combination of the level and rate of human-induced warming allows estimation of remaining emission budgets to peak warming across a broad range of scenarios, suggests an analysis of emissions budgets expressed in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent emissions.
- Nicholas J. Leach
- , Richard J. Millar
- & Myles R. Allen
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Pathways to 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming based on observational and geological constraints
A 1.5 °C climate target implies total emissions of carbon from the start of 2017 must fall below 195 to 205 PgC, according to an observationally constrained very large ensemble of simulations with an efficient Earth system model.
- Philip Goodwin
- , Anna Katavouta
- & Richard G. Williams
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Article |
Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions
Wind power for energy generation is projected to decrease in northern mid-latitudes and increase in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, suggests an analysis of climate model simulations utilizing an industry wind turbine power curve.
- Kristopher B. Karnauskas
- , Julie K. Lundquist
- & Lei Zhang
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Article |
Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change
Storms are not only generated at higher latitudes, they also travel further in a warmer climate, according to analyses of climate model output with a storm-tracking algorithm. The larger travel distance is attributed to stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour.
- Talia Tamarin-Brodsky
- & Yohai Kaspi
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Review Article |
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity, the long-term warming due to doubled atmospheric CO2 levels, is estimated in the range of 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C. A synthesis of work reveals that whether the value falls at the high or low end, future emissions will have to be strongly limited.
- Reto Knutti
- , Maria A. A. Rugenstein
- & Gabriele C. Hegerl
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Article |
A spatially resolved estimate of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balances from 2000 to 2016
Glacier mass balances in High Mountain Asia are uncertain. Satellite stereo-imagery allows a spatially resolved estimate for about 92% of the glacierized area and yields a region-wide average of about 16 Gt yr−1 for 2000 to 2016.
- Fanny Brun
- , Etienne Berthier
- & Désirée Treichler
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Perspective |
Complexity in estimating past and future extreme short-duration rainfall
The atmosphere can hold more water in a warming climate, which may lead to more extreme rainfall events. An analysis suggests that links ofrainfall extremes with daily temperature variations do not provide a reliable basis for projections.
- Xuebin Zhang
- , Francis W. Zwiers
- & Alex J. Cannon
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Letter |
Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead
The North Atlantic Oscillation profoundly influences European and North American winter weather. Dynamical model predictions now exhibit skill in prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation more than one year in advance.
- Nick Dunstone
- , Doug Smith
- & Jeff Knight
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Review Article |
Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change
Extratropical storms contribute to precipitation, wind and temperature extremes. A synthesis of the influences of a changing climate on storm tracks reveals competing effects on meridional temperature gradients, which make projections difficult.
- T. A. Shaw
- , M. Baldwin
- & A. Voigt
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Letter |
Enhanced summer convective rainfall at Alpine high elevations in response to climate warming
Summer rainfall is projected to decline in the European Alps. Regional high-resolution simulations suggest that at the highest elevations, precipitation may instead increase as a result of enhanced potential instability and convective rainfall.
- Filippo Giorgi
- , Csaba Torma
- & Samuel Somot
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News & Views |
Vagaries of Atlantic overturning
A weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has emerged from noise after years of painstaking measurements. Three independent lines of evidence suggest that an anthropogenic influence on this overturning is not yet detectable.
- Thomas W. N. Haine
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Letter |
Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean
Freshwater release from melting polar ice could weaken the Atlantic overturning circulation. Eddy-resolving ocean simulations reveal that the freshening has not yet significantly affected meridional overturning, but an effect may emerge soon.
- Claus W. Böning
- , Erik Behrens
- & Jonathan L. Bamber
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Article |
Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures
Extreme summer temperatures are difficult to forecast. A statistical analysis reveals a pattern of Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies that provides skilful predictions of hot weather in the eastern US.
- K. A. McKinnon
- , A. Rhines
- & P. Huybers
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Letter |
Importance and controls of anaerobic ammonium oxidation influenced by riverbed geology
Anammox, an important N2 loss pathway in marine waters, is not well understood in rivers. In situ measurements of N2 production in UK rivers reveal that anammox can be the dominant N2 loss pathway in permeable but not in impermeable riverbeds.
- K. Lansdown
- , B. A. McKew
- & M. Trimmer
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Letter |
Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate
ENSO-driven rainfall patterns are set to change as the climate warms. A moisture budget decomposition of simulations from 18 climate models reveals the mechanisms driving the shift in rainfall variability from western to central Pacific.
- Ping Huang
- & Shang-Ping Xie
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Letter |
Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios
Ice shelves modulate Antarctica’s contributions to sea-level rise. Regional-climate-model simulations and observations suggest historical ice melt intensification before collapse of Antarctic peninsula shelves, and project future melt evolution.
- Luke D. Trusel
- , Karen E. Frey
- & Michiel R. van den Broeke
Global groundwater warming due to climate change
Rainfall and climate feedbacks