Natural hazards articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Uncertainties in contemporary extreme sea levels (ESL) from mean sea level rise (SLR) projections have been overlooked in broad-scale risk and adaptation studies. Here, the authors quantify the uncertainties in present-day global ESL estimates and find that they exceed those from global SLR projections.

    • T. Wahl
    • , I. D. Haigh
    •  & A. B. A. Slangen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Toba Caldera in Indonesia had one of the largest volcanic eruptions over the last 100 kyr and has since undergone periods of resurgence. Here, the authors present zircon and sediment age data showing resurgence started after the climactic eruption and lasted until 2.7 ka, advancing west and south.

    • Adonara E. Mucek
    • , Martin Danišík
    •  & Matthew A. Coble

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Oceanic shield volcanoes flank failures can generate large tsunamis. Here, the authors provide evidence that two tsunamis impacted the coast of Tenerife 170 Ma, the first generated by volcano flank failure and the second following a debris avalanche of the edifice during an on-going ignimbrite-forming eruption.

    • Raphaël Paris
    • , Juan J. Coello Bravo
    •  & François Nauret

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Forecasting eruptions at large calderas remains difficult. Here, the authors apply an elastic-brittle failure model to Campi Flegrei to show that successive episodes of unrest lead to a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust, such that conditions may be becoming more favourable to eruption.

    • Christopher R.J. Kilburn
    • , Giuseppe De Natale
    •  & Stefano Carlino

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Biennial variability has intensified in the Pacific in recent decades, but the cause of this increase is not fully understood. Here, with statistical analyses and numerical experiments, the authors show that an Atlantic capacitor effect has given rise to this enhanced biennial variability since the early 1990s.

    • Lei Wang
    • , Jin-Yi Yu
    •  & Houk Paek

  • Article
    | Open Access

    El Niño and La Niña (ENSO) events influence global river flow and are often used as an early indicator of potential flooding. Here, the authors show that the probability of ENSO-driven flood hazard is more complex than is often perceived, and highlight the importance of considering hydrological response.

    • R. Emerton
    • , H. L. Cloke
    •  & F. Pappenberger

  • Article
    | Open Access

    ENSO end members El Niño and La Niña are linked to elevated coastal hazards across the Pacific region. Here, the authors show that the wave conditions and coastal response for the 2015–16 El Niño indicate that it was one of the most significant events of the last 145 years.

    • Patrick L. Barnard
    • , Daniel Hoover
    •  & Katherine A. Serafin

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Intermittent rainfall changes over the Pacific Ocean can profoundly disrupt lives and ecosystems in many locations. Here, the authors show that the risk of such changes has increased, and that the risk could – even with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions - remain elevated for decades to come.

    • Scott B. Power
    • , François P. D. Delage
    •  & Bradley F. Murphy

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake slip occurred on the shallowest part of the megathrust, but the nature of the shallow slip has been poorly constrained. Here, the authors model bathymetry differences before and after the earthquake to determine that the slip exceeded 60 m increasing towards the trench.

    • Tianhaozhe Sun
    • , Kelin Wang
    •  & Jiangheng He

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Satellite observations are an important tool in volcano monitoring, but observations such as ground deformation and gas emissions are treated independently. Here, the authors present a model coupling them through their link to magma volatile contents and storage depths prior to eruption

    • Brendan McCormick Kilbride
    • , Marie Edmonds
    •  & Juliet Biggs

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Magmatic intrusions are thought to precede volcanic eruptions. However, Castro et al. present evidence that a laccolith was emplaced during the 2011 rhyolitic eruption of Cordón Caulle showing that eruptions may force the intrusion of magma into the shallow crust posing an unrecognized volcanic hazard.

    • Jonathan M. Castro
    • , Benoit Cordonnier
    •  & Yves Feisel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Earthquakes have been theorised to produce gravity signals that may arrive before seismic waves, but until now they had not been detected. Montagneret al. have detected prompt gravity signals from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake thus allowing an early warning of earthquakes before seismic wave arrival.

    • Jean-Paul Montagner
    • , Kévin Juhel
    •  & Philippe Lognonné

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The Bronze Age eruption of Santorini is known to have generated tsunamis with caldera collapse as the likely mechanism. However, new bathymetric and seismic data presented by Nomikou et al. show that the entry of pyroclastic flows into the sea is the most likely tsunami-generating mechanism at Santorini.

    • P. Nomikou
    • , T. H. Druitt
    •  & M. M. Parks

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Past volcanic eruptions along the densely populated Ethiopian Rift valley remain poorly constrained despite the present day hazard. Hutchison et al. show that a large volcanic flare up along a 200 km section of the rift occurred between 320–170 ka dramatically affecting the landscape and hominin population.

    • William Hutchison
    • , Raffaella Fusillo
    •  & Andrew T. Calvert

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Small repeating earthquakes can be used to understand fault properties such as friction. Here, Lui et al. model the interaction between repeating earthquakes and find that postseismic creep dominates as the mechanism, which may help constrain the frictional properties of creeping fault segments.

    • Semechah K. Y. Lui
    •  & Nadia Lapusta

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