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Article
| Open AccessA global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets
Spatial distribution has been rarely studied in global disaster risk models. Here the authors address damaged networked infrastructure at the asset level for a wider range of hazards and reveal a global Expected Annual Damages ranging from $3.1 to 22 billion with a particular vulnerability of transport infrastructure in Small Island Developing States.
- E. E. Koks
- , J. Rozenberg
- & S. Hallegatte
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Perspective
| Open AccessInferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences
Questions of causality are ubiquitous in Earth system sciences and beyond, yet correlation techniques still prevail. This Perspective provides an overview of causal inference methods, identifies promising applications and methodological challenges, and initiates a causality benchmark platform.
- Jakob Runge
- , Sebastian Bathiany
- & Jakob Zscheischler
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Article
| Open AccessImpact hotspots of reduced nutrient discharge shift across the globe with population and dietary changes
The environmental impacts of increasing wastewater management are poorly understood. Here, the authors simulate impacts for 173 countries between 1990 and 2050; despite the development of wastewater infrastructure, they identify hotspots of unexpected detrimental effects which are shifting from Asia to Africa.
- Xu Wang
- , Glen Daigger
- & David Butler
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Article
| Open AccessTailoring sodium intercalation in graphite for high energy and power sodium ion batteries
Graphite is a promising anode material for sodium-ion batteries but suffers from the high co-intercalation potential. Here, the authors examine the factors influencing this potential and tailor the stability of graphite intercalation compound, realizing high energy and power densities.
- Zheng-Long Xu
- , Gabin Yoon
- & Kisuk Kang
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Article
| Open AccessRemediation of heavy metal contaminated soil by asymmetrical alternating current electrochemistry
Soil pollution by heavy metals is a problem of global concern, requiring the development of remediation technologies. Here the authors report a method based on asymmetrical alternating current electrochemistry, which enables recycling of soil washing chemicals and eliminates secondary pollution.
- Jinwei Xu
- , Chong Liu
- & Yi Cui
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Article
| Open AccessSynergistic and antagonistic impacts of suspended sediments and thermal stress on corals
Multiple aspects of anthropogenic change threaten coral reefs. Here, the authors show that bleaching associated with thermal stress was low when local dredging released moderate amounts of suspended sediments, but high sediment loads coupled with high temperatures had synergistic negative effects on coral survival.
- Rebecca Fisher
- , Pia Bessell-Browne
- & Ross Jones
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Article
| Open AccessDeclines in mental health associated with air pollution and temperature variability in China
Recent efforts to link mental health to environmental factors have focused on single predictors such as pollution or temperature anomalies. Here, the authors show that declines in self-assessed mental health scores were linked to increases in air pollution and temperature variability.
- Tao Xue
- , Tong Zhu
- & Qiang Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessKey determinants of global land-use projections
There lacks model comparison of global land use change projections. Here the authors explored how different long-term drivers determine land use and food availability projections and they showed that the key determinants population growth and improvements in agricultural efficiency.
- Elke Stehfest
- , Willem-Jan van Zeist
- & Keith Wiebe
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Article
| Open AccessThe impact of human health co-benefits on evaluations of global climate policy
Aerosol impacts have not been comprehensively considered in the cost-benefit integrated assessment models that are widely used to analyze climate policy. Here the authors account for these impacts and find that the health co-benefits from improved air quality outweigh the co-harms from increased near-term warming, and that optimal climate policy results in immediate net benefits globally.
- Noah Scovronick
- , Mark Budolfson
- & Fabian Wagner
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Article
| Open AccessRapid CO2 mineralisation into calcite at the CarbFix storage site quantified using calcium isotopes
At the CarbFix experimental site in Iceland, artificial removal of CO2 from the Earth’s atmosphere is investigated. The authors here propose a new method based on isotope fractionation calculations to estimate the efficiency of CO2 sequestration into calcite in basaltic groundwater settings.
- Philip A. E. Pogge von Strandmann
- , Kevin W. Burton
- & Sigurður R. Gislason
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Article
| Open Access800-kyr land temperature variations modulated by vegetation changes on Chinese Loess Plateau
Modern observation indicates that vegetation cover could modulate land surface temperatures substantially. Here the authors demonstrate that such vegetation feedbacks could be clearly identified in the Chinese Loess Plateau land surface temperature records during past cool periods when vegetation cover was reduced.
- Hongxuan Lu
- , Weiguo Liu
- & Zhisheng An
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Article
| Open AccessThe rise in ocean plastics evidenced from a 60-year time series
Plastics threaten the ocean environment. Here the authors present a 60 year time series (via the continuous plankton recorder) for the North Atlantic, revealing a significant increase in marine plastic after 1990.
- Clare Ostle
- , Richard C. Thompson
- & David G. Johns
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Article
| Open AccessDistinguishing the sources of silica nanoparticles by dual isotopic fingerprinting and machine learning
Determining the source of nanoparticles is critical for nanotechnology risk assessment. Here, the authors develop an approach that, by taking into account the isotopic signatures of both Si and O, may be able to distinguish between natural and engineered SiO2 nanoparticles, and even those synthesized by different manufacturers.
- Xuezhi Yang
- , Xian Liu
- & Guibin Jiang
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Article
| Open AccessAnion-adaptive crystalline cationic material for 99TcO4− trapping
Efficient anion recognition and trapping is of great significance for anion-specific separation processes but the design of an anion-adaptive sorbents remains a challenge. Here the authors use a cucurbit[8]uril based soft cationic supramolecular material as efficient sorbent for TcO4− ions.
- Lei Mei
- , Fei-ze Li
- & Wei-qun Shi
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Article
| Open AccessMeta-analysis reveals that pollinator functional diversity and abundance enhance crop pollination and yield
Pollinator communities could have nuanced effects on crop yield depending on their species and functional trait compositions. Here, the authors use a meta-analysis to show that, in addition to pollinator abundance, functional trait divergence also positively impacts yield of oilseed rape crops.
- B. A. Woodcock
- , M. P. D. Garratt
- & R. F. Pywell
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Article
| Open AccessThe negative emission potential of alkaline materials
The potential of biomass energy carbon capture and storage is unclear. Here the authors estimated the negative emissions potential from highly alkaline materials, by-products and wastes and showed that these materials have a CO2 storage potential of 2.5–7.5 billion tonnes per year by 2100.
- Phil Renforth
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Article
| Open AccessEutrophication will increase methane emissions from lakes and impoundments during the 21st century
.Agricultural intensification and a growing human population are likely to increase the eutrophication of lakes and impoundments over the next century. Here, the authors show that this enhanced eutrophication will substantially increase emissions of methane (+ 30–90%), a potent greenhouse gas, from these systems over the next century.
- Jake J. Beaulieu
- , Tonya DelSontro
- & John A. Downing
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Article
| Open AccessStronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests
Separating anthropogenic and climatic impacts on forest compositions can be challenging due to a lack of data. Here the authors look at forest compositional changes in eastern Canada since the 19th century and find land use has most strongly shaped communities towards disturbance-adapted species.
- Victor Danneyrolles
- , Sébastien Dupuis
- & Dominique Arseneault
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Review Article
| Open AccessAdvancing environmental exposure assessment science to benefit society
How can scientists and policymakers work together to reduce the health impacts of air pollution? In this review paper, the authors discuss the interplay between advances in environmental exposure assessment and policy advances to tackle pollution in a focused way.
- Andrew Caplin
- , Masoud Ghandehari
- & George Thurston
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Article
| Open AccessRegulation of atmospheric circulation controlling the tropical Pacific precipitation change in response to CO2 increases
The response of tropical precipitation to warming is key for understanding global weather and climate variability. Here the authors use model simulations to show that regional scale circulation shapes the spatial pattern of the tropical Pacific precipitation response to CO2.
- Byung-Ju Sohn
- , Sang-Wook Yeh
- & William K. M. Lau
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Article
| Open AccessUrban pollution greatly enhances formation of natural aerosols over the Amazon rainforest
It remains unclear how urban emissions influence the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOA), including in the Amazon forest. Here, the authors simulate the formation of SOAs in the Amazon using a high-resolution regional chemical transport model. They find that urban emissions of NOx from Manaus enhance the production of biogenic SOA by 60–200%.
- Manish Shrivastava
- , Meinrat O. Andreae
- & Chun Zhao
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Article
| Open AccessState-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Impact models projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here the authors test systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions.
- Jacob Schewe
- , Simon N. Gosling
- & Lila Warszawski
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Article
| Open AccessOxidation induced strain and defects in magnetite crystals
Oxidation of magnetite has broad implications in geochemistry and environmental science, but its reaction mechanisms are not fully understood yet. Here the authors use Bragg coherent diffractive imaging to show oxidative dissolution of magnetite inducing a rich array of strain and defect structures.
- Ke Yuan
- , Sang Soo Lee
- & Paul Fenter
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Article
| Open AccessFire-derived organic matter retains ammonia through covalent bond formation
Fire-derived organic matter (OM) is present throughout the environment, and its impact on nutrient cycling remains poorly understood. Here, the authors show that this pyrogenic OM can retain large quantities of ammonia through covalent bond formation, thereby exerting an important control on nitrogen cycling.
- Rachel Hestrin
- , Dorisel Torres-Rojas
- & Johannes Lehmann
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Article
| Open AccessEffect of the Great Recession on regional mortality trends in Europe
Country difference in macroeconomic cycles-mortality changes relationships has been rarely explored. Here the authors studied the relationship between 2008 recession and daily mortality counts for EU countries and revealed a significant relationship between macroeconomic cycles and mortality trends.
- Joan Ballester
- , Jean-Marie Robine
- & Xavier Rodó
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Article
| Open AccessA number-based inventory of size-resolved black carbon particle emissions by global civil aviation
Size-resolved Black Carbon (BC) particle number emission inventory is not available for global civil aviation. Here the authors converted BC mass emission inventory into number emission inventory and found that aviation BC number emission contributes to 1.3% of total ground anthropogenic emissions and 3.6% on global average.
- Xiaole Zhang
- , Xi Chen
- & Jing Wang
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Article
| Open AccessChina’s coal mine methane regulations have not curbed growing emissions
Chinese government has implemented regulations to reduce mining-related methane emission since 2010. Here the authors estimated methane emissions in China using GOSAT satellite observation and results reveal a business-as-usual increase in methane emissions since 2010 despite those ambitious targets.
- Scot M. Miller
- , Anna M. Michalak
- & Stefan Schwietzke
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Article
| Open AccessForecasting dryland vegetation condition months in advance through satellite data assimilation
Forecasting drought and its impact on agriculture and ecosystems is challenged by a lack of knowledge of vegetation access to deep moisture. Here the authors show that combining vegetation and water storage remote sensing can be used to infer this knowledge, allowing drought impact forecasts months in advance.
- Siyuan Tian
- , Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk
- & Luigi J. Renzullo
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Article
| Open AccessRiver channel connectivity shifts metabolite composition and dissolved organic matter chemistry
The underlying mechanisms structuring dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition and reactivity in rivers remain poorly quantified. Here, the authors pair mass spectrometry and fluorescence spectroscopy to show that hydrology and river geomorphology both shape molecular patterns in DOM composition.
- Laurel M. Lynch
- , Nicholas A. Sutfin
- & Matthew D. Wallenstein
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Article
| Open AccessMost Earth-surface calcites precipitate out of isotopic equilibrium
Isotopic thermometry of carbonate minerals postulates that their composition reflects thermodynamic equilibrium constants. Here the authors constrain equilibrium relationships between temperature, 18O/16O and clumped isotopes and find that most natural calcites form out of isotopic equilibrium.
- M. Daëron
- , R. N. Drysdale
- & G. Zanchetta
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Article
| Open AccessAbundance of non-conservative microplastics in the upper ocean from 1957 to 2066
The spatio-temporal distributions of these plastics are not fully characterized. Here the authors examined the sources, sinks and pathways and projected microplastic concentrations for 2066 and found that most plastics accumulate in the North Pacific, with the highest concentrations predicted in the East Asia Seas and central North Pacific.
- Atsuhiko Isobe
- , Shinsuke Iwasaki
- & Tadashi Tokai
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Article
| Open AccessDiverse manifestations of the mid-Pleistocene climate transition
The mid-Pleistocene transition is recognized as a shift in paleoclimatic periodicity from 41- to 100-kyr cycles. Here the authors present a unique mid-Pleistocene transition of coupled monsoon-vegetation changes from 23- to 100-kyr cycles, which indicates varied sensitivity of past climate to astronomical and ice/CO2 forcing.
- Youbin Sun
- , Qiuzhen Yin
- & Zhisheng An
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Article
| Open AccessPermafrost is warming at a global scale
Climate change strongly impacts regions in high latitudes and altitudes that store high amounts of carbon in yet frozen ground. Here the authors show that the consequence of these changes is global warming of permafrost at depths greater than 10 m in the Northern Hemisphere, in mountains, and in Antarctica.
- Boris K. Biskaborn
- , Sharon L. Smith
- & Hugues Lantuit
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Article
| Open AccessOil palm expansion and deforestation in Southwest Cameroon associated with proliferation of informal mills
Deforestation for palm oil production is often attributed to large-scale, agro-industrial expansion. Here, Ordway et al. show that much recent expansion in Southwest Cameroon can be attributed to an informal sector of non-industrial producers establishing near informal, non-industrial palm oil mills.
- Elsa M. Ordway
- , Rosamond L. Naylor
- & Eric F. Lambin
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Article
| Open AccessFecal pollution can explain antibiotic resistance gene abundances in anthropogenically impacted environments
Increased abundance of antibiotic resistance genes in the environment may be due to selection pressure by residual antibiotics, or to contamination with resistant bacteria from human faeces. Here, Karkman et al. analyze metagenomic data and find evidence supporting the second scenario in most cases.
- Antti Karkman
- , Katariina Pärnänen
- & D. G. Joakim Larsson
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Article
| Open AccessRemote sensing quantifies widespread abundance of permafrost region disturbances across the Arctic and Subarctic
The occurrence and distribution of permafrost region disturbances (PRDs) remain poorly resolved across the Arctic and Subarctic. Here, the authors quantify the abundance and distribution of three primary PRDs using a time-series analysis of 30-m resolution Landsat imagery between 1999 and 2014.
- I. Nitze
- , G. Grosse
- & J. Boike
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Article
| Open AccessPractice and perspectives in the validation of resource management models
Credibility of long-term projection in quantitative models is continuously under debate and they rely on validation to prove projection accuracy. Here the authors investigated the views on the validation approaches and they show that empirical data plays an important role in the validation practice in all main areas of sustainability science.
- Sibel Eker
- , Elena Rovenskaya
- & Simon Langan
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Comment
| Open AccessPrebiotic plausibility and networks of paradox-resolving independent models
- Steven A. Benner
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Article
| Open AccessOrganic bromine compounds produced in sea ice in Antarctic winter
Short-lived natural bromocarbons, which contribute to ozone depletion in the atmosphere, are believed to be produced through light-driven processes, mainly in oceans. Here the authors present bromocarbon measurements in snow, sea ice, and air during polar winter that show an unexpected source of bromine to the polar atmosphere during periods of no sunlight.
- Katarina Abrahamsson
- , Anna Granfors
- & Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
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Article
| Open AccessFungal spores as a source of sodium salt particles in the Amazon basin
Salt particles in the Amazon basin are typically attributed to marine aerosols transported from the Atlantic Ocean. Here the authors show the potential importance of fungal spores as a source of sodium-salt particles in the Amazon rainforest.
- Swarup China
- , Susannah M. Burrows
- & Alexander Laskin
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Article
| Open AccessPhotoreduction of gaseous oxidized mercury changes global atmospheric mercury speciation, transport and deposition
Reduction of gaseous Hg(II) compounds drives atmospheric mercury wet and dry deposition to Earth surface ecosystems. Global Hg models assume this reduction takes place in clouds. Here the authors report a new gas-phase Hg photochemical mechanism that changes atmospheric mercury lifetime and its deposition to the surface.
- Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
- , Sebastian P. Sitkiewicz
- & Jeroen E. Sonke
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Article
| Open AccessPlant defences mediate interactions between herbivory and the direct foliar uptake of atmospheric reactive nitrogen
Reactive nitrogen oxides can be assimilated by leaves, though the trophic and nitrogen cycling impacts of this are unclear. Here Campbell and Vallano show foliar uptake of NO2 increases defensive metabolites, reduces herbivore consumption and growth, and herbivory reduces foliar NO2 uptake.
- Stuart A. Campbell
- & Dena M. Vallano
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Article
| Open AccessA diverse suite of pharmaceuticals contaminates stream and riparian food webs
Pharmaceuticals are widespread contaminants in surface waters. Here, Richmond and colleagues show that dozens of pharmaceuticals accumulate in food chains of streams, including in predators in adjacent terrestrial ecosystems.
- Erinn K. Richmond
- , Emma J. Rosi
- & Michael R. Grace
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal state and potential scope of investments in watershed services for large cities
Investment in watershed services programs is growing, however the factors that contribute to sustainability of such programs are unclear. Here the authors use a large database of cities around the world to show that payment schemes are more likely to be present in watersheds with more agricultural land and less protected areas.
- Chelsie L. Romulo
- , Stephen Posner
- & Robert I. McDonald
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Article
| Open AccessMediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise
UNESCO World Heritage located in low-lying coastal areas is increasingly at risk from flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. This study shows that up to 82% of cultural World Heritage sites located in the Mediterranean will be at risk from coastal flooding and over 93% from coastal erosion by 2100 under high-end sea-level rise.
- Lena Reimann
- , Athanasios T. Vafeidis
- & Richard S. J. Tol
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Article
| Open AccessDiverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe
Drivers of crop yield variability require quantification, and historical records can help in improving understanding. Here, Webber et al. report that drought stress will remain a key driver of yield losses in wheat and maize across Europe, and benefits from CO2 will be limited in low-yielding years.
- Heidi Webber
- , Frank Ewert
- & Daniel Wallach
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Article
| Open AccessA global strategy to mitigate the environmental impact of China’s ruminant consumption boom
Rising demand for ruminant meat and dairy products in developing nations drives increasing GHG and ammonia emissions from livestock. Authors show here that only long-term adoption of global best-practice in sustainable intensification buffered by a short-term coping strategy of green-source trading can offer a way forward.
- Yuanyuan Du
- , Ying Ge
- & Raphael K. Didham
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence for magmatic carbon bias in 14C dating of the Taupo and other major eruptions
Correlations between prehistoric eruptions and other phenomena depend on accurate dating of the eruption. Here the authors show that magmatic CO2 in groundwater can bias radiocarbon ages for eruptions and that plateaux of carbon isotopic values in tree ring sequences biased by magmatic CO2 foreshadow major eruptions.
- Richard N. Holdaway
- , Brendan Duffy
- & Ben Kennedy
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Article
| Open AccessResolving the mechanisms of hygroscopic growth and cloud condensation nuclei activity for organic particulate matter
The interactions between organic particulate matter and water vapour affect climate predictions, yet the mechanisms of these interactions remain unresolved. Here, the authors propose a phase separation mechanism that reconciles the observed hygroscopicity and cloud condensation nuclei activity.
- Pengfei Liu
- , Mijung Song
- & Scot T. Martin