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| Open AccessModelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine
Vaccines preventing tuberculosis disease progression have shown promising results in recent trials. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to estimate that this type of vaccine could avert 10% of cases of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis and 7% of deaths from 2020-2035.
- Han Fu
- , Joseph A. Lewnard
- & Nimalan Arinaminpathy
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Article
| Open AccessMathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo—Brazil
Incidence of COVID-19 has been high in parts of South America including Brazil, and information on effective intervention strategies is needed. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to show that reductions in social distancing should be made gradually to avoid a severe second peak of cases.
- Osmar Pinto Neto
- , Deanna M. Kennedy
- & Renato Amaro Zângaro
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| Open AccessInferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling
The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions calls for accurate models of the human contact patterns that govern disease transmission. Here, the authors generate effective population-level contact matrices by using highly detailed macro (census) and micro (survey) data on key socio-demographic features.
- Dina Mistry
- , Maria Litvinova
- & Alessandro Vespignani
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Article
| Open AccessEstimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic
Sparse testing early in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hinders estimation of the dates and origins of initial case importations. Here, the authors show that the main source of cases imported from China shifted from Wuhan to other Chinese cities by mid-February, especially for African locations.
- Tigist F. Menkir
- , Taylor Chin
- & Rene Niehus
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Article
| Open AccessAccurate protein structure prediction with hydroxyl radical protein footprinting data
Mass spectrometry-based covalent labeling techniques such as hydroxyl radical protein footprinting (HRPF) provide information about protein tertiary structures. Here, the authors present a dynamics driven HRPF-guided algorithm for protein structure prediction that is incorporated in the Rosetta software suite and only requires the protein sequence and HRPF data as input and they demonstrate its successful application to four benchmark proteins.
- Sarah E. Biehn
- & Steffen Lindert
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Article
| Open AccessMathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil
Low-resource settings can face additional challenges in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to investigate transmission in the state of Bahia, Brazil, and quantify control measures needed to prevent the hospital system becoming overwhelmed.
- Juliane F. Oliveira
- , Daniel C. P. Jorge
- & Roberto F. S. Andrade
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Article
| Open AccessBidirectional contact tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control
Contact tracing is critical to controlling COVID-19, but most protocols only “forward-trace” to notify people who were recently exposed. Using a stochastic branching-process model, the authors show that “bidirectional” tracing to identify infector individuals and their other infectees robustly improves outbreak control.
- William J. Bradshaw
- , Ethan C. Alley
- & Kevin M. Esvelt
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| Open AccessOptimizing respiratory virus surveillance networks using uncertainty propagation
Lack of a widespread surveillance network hampers accurate infectious disease forecasting. Here the authors provide a framework to optimize the selection of surveillance site locations and show that accurate forecasting of respiratory diseases for locations without surveillance is feasible.
- Sen Pei
- , Xian Teng
- & Jeffrey Shaman
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Article
| Open AccessHigh-resolution single-cell 3D-models of chromatin ensembles during Drosophila embryogenesis
Balancing high resolution and broad genome coverage in single-cell Hi-C approaches remains challenging. Here, the authors describe a computational method for the reconstruction of a large 3D-ensemble of single-cell chromatin conformations from population Hi-C measurements and apply this model to study embryogenesis in Drosophila.
- Qiu Sun
- , Alan Perez-Rathke
- & Jie Liang
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Article
| Open AccessBayesian genome scale modelling identifies thermal determinants of yeast metabolism
While temperature impacts the function of all cellular components, it’s hard to rule out how the temperature dependence of cell phenotypes emerged from the dependence of individual components. Here, the authors develop a Bayesian genome scale modelling approach to identify thermal determinants of yeast metabolism.
- Gang Li
- , Yating Hu
- & Jens Nielsen
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Article
| Open AccessOptimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies
Safely reducing the necessary duration of quarantine for COVID-19 could lessen the economic impacts of the pandemic. Here, the authors demonstrate that testing on exit from quarantine is more effective than testing on entry, and can enable quarantine to be reduced from fourteen to seven days.
- Chad R. Wells
- , Jeffrey P. Townsend
- & Alison P. Galvani
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Article
| Open AccessThe role of water in host-guest interaction
Computational approaches to predict water’s role in host-ligand binding attract a great deal of attention. Here the authors use a metadynamics enhanced sampling method and machine learning to compute binding energies for host-guest systems from the SAMPL5 challenge and provide details of water structural changes.
- Valerio Rizzi
- , Luigi Bonati
- & Michele Parrinello
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Article
| Open AccessEfficient assembly of nanopore reads via highly accurate and intact error correction
Nanopore reads have been advantageous for de novo genome assembly; however these reads have high error rates. Here, the authors develop an error correction and de novo assembly tool, NECAT, which produces efficient, high quality assemblies of nanopore reads.
- Ying Chen
- , Fan Nie
- & Chuan-Le Xiao
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Article
| Open AccessA meta-learning approach for genomic survival analysis
RNA-sequencing data from tumours can be used to predict the prognosis of patients. Here, the authors show that a neural network meta-learning approach can be useful for predicting prognosis from a small number of samples.
- Yeping Lina Qiu
- , Hong Zheng
- & Olivier Gevaert
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Article
| Open AccessState-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
High numbers of COVID-19-related deaths have been reported in the United States, but estimation of the true numbers of infections is challenging. Here, the authors estimate that on 1 June 2020, 3.7% of the US population was infected with SARS-CoV-2, and 0.01% was infectious, with wide variation by state.
- H. Juliette T. Unwin
- , Swapnil Mishra
- & Seth Flaxman
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Article
| Open AccessEnsemble dimensionality reduction and feature gene extraction for single-cell RNA-seq data
Dimensionality reduction is used to make the analysis of single-cell RNA sequencing data more efficient. Here the authors propose a method, EDGE, which simultaneously carries out dimensionality reduction and feature gene extraction.
- Xiaoxiao Sun
- , Yiwen Liu
- & Lingling An
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Article
| Open AccessPolyelectrolyte interactions enable rapid association and dissociation in high-affinity disordered protein complexes
The intrinsically disordered linker histone H1.0 and prothymosin α form a complex which exhibits slow exchange between bound and unbound populations at low protein concentrations and fast exchange at high concentrations. Here authors explain this observation by the formation of transient ternary complexes favored at high protein concentrations that accelerate the exchange.
- Andrea Sottini
- , Alessandro Borgia
- & Benjamin Schuler
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Article
| Open AccessModelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia
There is ongoing debate about the effective combination of strategies for COIVD-19 control. Here, the authors use an agent-based model to quantify and compare several intervention strategies, and identify minimal levels of social distancing compliance required to control the epidemic in Australia.
- Sheryl L. Chang
- , Nathan Harding
- & Mikhail Prokopenko
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Article
| Open AccessRapid and robust assembly and decoding of molecular tags with DNA-based nanopore signatures
Molecular tagging using DNA is an attractive option in cases that are not suitable for RFID tags or QR codes. Here, the authors present Porcupine, DNA tags directly classifiable from raw nanopore signals.
- Kathryn Doroschak
- , Karen Zhang
- & Jeff Nivala
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Article
| Open AccessGamma estimator of Jarzynski equality for recovering binding energies from noisy dynamic data sets
Measuring interaction energies from experimentally measured single-molecular interactions is challenging. Here, the authors report a gamma work distribution applied to single molecule pulling events for estimating peptide absorption free energy.
- Zhifeng Kuang
- , Kristi M. Singh
- & Rajesh R. Naik
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| Open AccessOptimized design of single-cell RNA sequencing experiments for cell-type-specific eQTL analysis
Single cell RNA-sequencing can be a powerful approach to characterizing cell composition in a population of cells but is thought to be too expensive for population-scale analyses. Here, the authors show how lower coverage of more samples can increase the power to detect cell-type-specific eQTL.
- Igor Mandric
- , Tommer Schwarz
- & Eran Halperin
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Article
| Open AccessThe evolution of tit-for-tat in bacteria via the type VI secretion system
Game theory has contributed much to the understanding of social evolution. In an elegant combination of experimental tests and modelling, this study suggests that when bacteria face intense competition, repeated retaliation outcompetes a single tit-for-tat response to attack.
- William P. J. Smith
- , Maj Brodmann
- & Kevin R. Foster
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Article
| Open AccessThe protein translation machinery is expressed for maximal efficiency in Escherichia coli
The protein translation machinery is the most expensive cellular subsystem in fast growing bacteria. Providing a detailed mechanistic model for this complex system, the authors show that the translation machinery components are expressed such that their combined cost to the cell is minimal.
- Xiao-Pan Hu
- , Hugo Dourado
- & Martin J. Lercher
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Article
| Open AccessDetection of haplotype-dependent allele-specific DNA methylation in WGBS data
Allele-specific measurements can reveal differences in DNA methylation between homologous alleles associated with changes in genetic sequence. Here, the authors develop a method for detecting allele specific methylation events within haplotypes of linked SNPs, compare it with existing methods, and show it identifies haplotypes for which the genetic variant carries significant information about the methylation state of the allele of origin.
- J. Abante
- , Y. Fang
- & J. Goutsias
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Article
| Open AccessA strategy to incorporate prior knowledge into correlation network cutoff selection
Correlation network inference is typically based on the significance of the correlation coefficients, but this procedure is not guaranteed to capture biological mechanisms. Here, the authors develop a cutoff selection algorithm that maximizes the overlap between inferred networks and prior knowledge.
- Elisa Benedetti
- , Maja Pučić-Baković
- & Jan Krumsiek
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| Open AccessA network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic
An ongoing global debate concerns effective and sustainable lockdown release strategies in the current pandemic. Here, the authors implement a network model at healthcare-relevant spatial scale to show that coordinated local strategies can be effective in containing further resurgence of the disease.
- Fabio Della Rossa
- , Davide Salzano
- & Mario di Bernardo
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Article
| Open AccessTracing the cellular basis of islet specification in mouse pancreas
The cellular basis of islet morphogenesis and fate allocation remain unclear. Here, the authors use a R26-CreER-R26R-Confetti mouse line to follow quantitatively the clonal dynamics of islet formation showing how, during the secondary transition, islet progenitors amplify through rounds of stochastic cell division before becoming restricted to α and β cell sublineages.
- Magdalena K. Sznurkowska
- , Edouard Hannezo
- & Benjamin D. Simons
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Article
| Open AccessAccelerated knowledge discovery from omics data by optimal experimental design
How to design experiments that accelerate knowledge discovery on complex biological landscapes remains a tantalizing question. Here, the authors present OPEX, an optimal experimental design method to identify informative omics experiments for both experimental space exploration and model training.
- Xiaokang Wang
- , Navneet Rai
- & Ilias Tagkopoulos
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| Open AccessChanging travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic
COVID-19-related travel restrictions were imposed in China around the same time as major annual holiday migrations, with unknown combined impacts on mobility patterns. Here, the authors show that restructuring of the travel network in response to restrictions was temporary, whilst holiday-related travel increased pressure on healthcare services with lower capacity.
- Hamish Gibbs
- , Yang Liu
- & Rosalind M. Eggo
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Article
| Open AccessModeling lung perfusion abnormalities to explain early COVID-19 hypoxemia
Early stages of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been associated with silent hypoxia and poor oxygenation despite relatively small fractions of afflicted lung. Here, the authors present a mathematical model which reproduces the vascular pulmonary mechanisms observed in patients with early COVID-19.
- Jacob Herrmann
- , Vitor Mori
- & Béla Suki
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Article
| Open AccessA theoretical model of Polycomb/Trithorax action unites stable epigenetic memory and dynamic regulation
Polycomb (PcG) and Trithorax (TrxG) group regulate several hundred target genes with important roles in development and disease. Here the authors combine experiment and theory to provide evidence that the Polycomb/Trithorax system has the potential for a rich repertoire of regulatory modes beyond simple epigenetic memory.
- Jeannette Reinig
- , Frank Ruge
- & Leonie Ringrose
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Article
| Open AccessRetrieving functional pathways of biomolecules from single-particle snapshots
There is a great interest in retrieving functional pathways from cryo-EM single-particle data. Here, the authors present an approach that combines cryo-EM with advanced data-analytical methods and molecular dynamics simulations to reveal the functional pathways traversed on experimentally derived energy landscapes using the ryanodine receptor type 1 as an example.
- Ali Dashti
- , Ghoncheh Mashayekhi
- & Abbas Ourmazd
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Article
| Open AccessImproved haplotype inference by exploiting long-range linking and allelic imbalance in RNA-seq datasets
Haplotype reconstruction of distant genetic variants is problematic in short-read sequencing. Here, the authors describe HapTree-X, a probabilistic framework that uses differential allele-specific expression to better reconstruct paternal haplotypes from diploid and polyploid genomes.
- Emily Berger
- , Deniz Yorukoglu
- & Bonnie Berger
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Article
| Open AccessAge and life expectancy clocks based on machine learning analysis of mouse frailty
The discovery of interventions that slow aging could be accelerated by employing non-invasive biometrics that predict biological age or life expectancy. Here the authors use longitudinal frailty data from naturally aging mice to develop two such tools, that are responsive to interventions.
- Michael B. Schultz
- , Alice E. Kane
- & David A. Sinclair
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Article
| Open AccessPredicting the frequencies of drug side effects
Currently, the frequencies of drug side effects are determined in randomised controlled clinical trials. Here the authors develop an interpretable machine learning approach to predict the frequencies of unknown side effects for drugs with a small number of determined side effect frequencies.
- Diego Galeano
- , Shantao Li
- & Alberto Paccanaro
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Article
| Open AccessTranscriptomic analysis links diverse hypothalamic cell types to fibroblast growth factor 1-induced sustained diabetes remission
In rodent models of type 2 diabetes, sustained remission of hyperglycemia can be induced by FGF1 action in the mediobasal hypothalamus. Here, the authors show that FGF1-injection is followed by marked changes in glial cell populations and that the sustained glycemic response is dependent on intact melanocortin signaling.
- Marie A. Bentsen
- , Dylan M. Rausch
- & Tune H. Pers
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Article
| Open AccessAccurate quantification of copy-number aberrations and whole-genome duplications in multi-sample tumor sequencing data
The correct identification of copy-number aberrations (CNAs) in tumours can provide information for diagnosis, prognosis and therapeutic strategies. Here, the authors provide an algorithm, HATCHet, which quantifies CNAs using multiple samples from the same patient, providing more accurate information than studying one sample alone.
- Simone Zaccaria
- & Benjamin J. Raphael
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Article
| Open AccessMulti-site clonality analysis uncovers pervasive heterogeneity across melanoma metastases
Metastatic melanoma is associated with a poor prognosis and understanding the genetic features of metastases may enable better treatment strategies. Here, the authors analyse multiple metastases from individual patients finding high levels of heterogeneity in metastases from different organs.
- Roy Rabbie
- , Naser Ansari-Pour
- & David J. Adams
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Article
| Open AccessThe geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures
Releasing COVID-19 lockdown measures risks increases in transmission. Here, the authors estimate the increase in transmission rate for different regions in Italy and estimate that isolation of 5.5% exposed and highly infectious individuals would be needed to compensate for a 40% increase in transmission.
- Enrico Bertuzzo
- , Lorenzo Mari
- & Andrea Rinaldo
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Article
| Open AccessFace mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic
Recommendations regarding the use of face masks as a preventive measure for COVID-19 are inconsistent. Here, the authors show that optimal distribution of surgical-standard face masks in the population, or universal coverage of homemade face coverings, could reduce total infections and deaths.
- Colin J. Worby
- & Hsiao-Han Chang
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Article
| Open AccessExplainable artificial intelligence model to predict acute critical illness from electronic health records
Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Here, the authors develop an explainable artificial intelligence early warning score system for its early detection.
- Simon Meyer Lauritsen
- , Mads Kristensen
- & Bo Thiesson
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Article
| Open AccessModelling the incremental benefit of introducing malaria screening strategies to antenatal care in Africa
Plasmodium falciparum infection in pregnancy is a major cause of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Here, the authors combine performance estimates of standard rapid diagnostic tests with modelling to assess whether screening at antenatal visits improves upon current intermittent preventative therapy.
- Patrick G. T. Walker
- , Matt Cairns
- & Feiko O. ter Kuile
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Perspective
| Open AccessCausality matters in medical imaging
Scarcity of high-quality annotated data and mismatch between the development dataset and the target environment are two of the main challenges in developing predictive tools from medical imaging. In this Perspective, the authors show how causal reasoning can shed new light on these challenges.
- Daniel C. Castro
- , Ian Walker
- & Ben Glocker
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Article
| Open AccessDeep learning for genomics using Janggu
Deep learning is becoming a popular approach for understanding biological processes but can be hard to adapt to new questions. Here, the authors develop Janggu, a python library that aims to ease data acquisition and model evaluation and facilitate deep learning applications in genomics.
- Wolfgang Kopp
- , Remo Monti
- & Altuna Akalin
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Article
| Open AccessGermline de novo mutation rates on exons versus introns in humans
Evidence that somatic mutation rates in introns exceed those in exons challenges the molecular evolution tenet that mutation rate and sequence function are independent. Here, authors analyze germline de novo mutations and reveal no evidence for mutation rate differences between exons and introns.
- Miguel Rodriguez-Galindo
- , Sònia Casillas
- & Antonio Barbadilla
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Article
| Open AccessAn entropy-based metric for assessing the purity of single cell populations
Single cell RNA-seq is a powerful method to assign cell identity, but the purity of cell clusters arising from this data is not clear. Here the authors present an entropy-based statistic called ROGUE to quantify the purity of cell clusters, and identify subtypes within clusters.
- Baolin Liu
- , Chenwei Li
- & Zemin Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessSingle-cell lineage tracing by integrating CRISPR-Cas9 mutations with transcriptomic data
Lineage tracing studies combining CRISPR-Cas9 editing and scRNA-seq face several challenges and cannot integrate lineages from multiple individuals. Here the authors show that integration of mutation and expression leads to accurate lineage tree inference and enables the learning of a species-invariant lineage tree.
- Hamim Zafar
- , Chieh Lin
- & Ziv Bar-Joseph
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Article
| Open AccessHigh-throughput interrogation of programmed ribosomal frameshifting in human cells
Programmed ribosomal frameshifting—the slippage of the ribosome to an alternative frame — is critical for viral replication and cellular processes. Here the authors present an approach that can assess the frameshifting potential of a sequence and elucidate the rules governing ribosomal frameshifting.
- Martin Mikl
- , Yitzhak Pilpel
- & Eran Segal
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Article
| Open AccessLarge-scale simulation of biomembranes incorporating realistic kinetics into coarse-grained models
Explicit molecular modelling of biological membrane systems is computationally expensive due to the large number of solvent particles and slow membrane kinetics. Here authors present a framework for integrating coarse-grained membrane models with continuum-based hydrodynamics which facilitates efficient simulation of large biomembrane systems.
- Mohsen Sadeghi
- & Frank Noé