Featured
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Research Briefing |
Long-term effect of reservoir emissions on the climate is increasingly dominated by methane
Modelling of the effect of reservoirs on the climate through time (1900 to 2060) revealed that although carbon emissions peaked in 1987, reservoir-induced radiative forcing will continue to rise for the next decades. Over time, reservoir emissions are shifting from carbon dioxide to methane-dominated pathways, on which knowledge is largely lacking.
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News & Views |
Thwaites Glacier and the bed beneath
Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica is losing mass and has the potential to cause substantial sea level rise. New seabed imagery indicates that the glacier previously retreated at double its current rate, implying that mass loss could accelerate in the near future.
- Andrew Mackintosh
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Article
| Open AccessRapid retreat of Thwaites Glacier in the pre-satellite era
The Thwaites Glacier grounding zone has experienced sustained pulses of rapid retreat over the past two centuries, according to sea floor observations obtained by an autonomous underwater vehicle.
- Alastair G. C. Graham
- , Anna Wåhlin
- & Robert D. Larter
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Article
| Open AccessEocene emergence of highly calcifying coccolithophores despite declining atmospheric CO2
Highly calcifying, larger coccolithophores emerged as CO2 generally declined through the Eocene, despite cooling leading to lower organic-matter fixation rates, according to size-dependent coccolith carbon isotope analyses and cell-scale modelling
- L. M. Claxton
- , H. L. O. McClelland
- & R. E. M. Rickaby
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Article |
Reservoir CO2 and CH4 emissions and their climate impact over the period 1900–2060
Reservoir-induced radiative forcing is increasing globally due to rising methane emissions outweighing declining carbon dioxide emissions, according to modelling based on reservoir surface area observations.
- Cynthia Soued
- , John A. Harrison
- & Yves T. Prairie
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News & Views |
Lingering end to a salinity crisis
Modelling indicates that a return to fully normal marine conditions in the Mediterranean following the flooding that ended the Messinian Salinity Crisis was delayed by salt transfers and temporarily enhanced stratification.
- Angelo Camerlenghi
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Article |
Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation suppressed by Pacific intertropical convergence zone shift
Suppressed El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period was caused mainly by a northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone, according to an analysis of a large ensemble of climate model simulations.
- Gabriel M. Pontes
- , Andréa S. Taschetto
- & Arthur M. Oldeman
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Article |
Sill-controlled salinity contrasts followed post-Messinian flooding of the Mediterranean
Flooding of the desiccated Mediterranean ~5 Myr ago resulted in east–west differences in salinity stratification, which delayed the return of normal marine conditions throughout the basin, according to proxy records and model simulations.
- Udara Amarathunga
- , Andrew McC. Hogg
- & Stewart Gilmore
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Comment |
Atmospheric impacts of the space industry require oversight
Rocket emissions and debris from spacecraft falling out of orbit are having increasingly detrimental effects on global atmospheric chemistry. Improved monitoring and regulation are urgently needed to create an environmentally sustainable space industry.
- Jamie D. Shutler
- , Xiaoyu Yan
- & Hitoshi Nasu
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News & Views |
Islands on the move
Sea level rise causes barrier islands to migrate landward. Coastal evolution modelling reveals a centennial-scale lag in island response time and suggests migration rates will increase by 50% within the next century, even if sea level were to stabilize.
- Laura J. Moore
- & A. Brad Murray
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News & Views |
Polluted skies are cloudier
Analyses of the 2014 Iceland–Holuhraun volcanic eruption revealed the emitted aerosols induced a 10% increase in cloud coverage above the region, suggesting anthropogenic aerosols might strongly cool the Earth’s climate by increasing the cloud coverage.
- Velle Toll
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Article |
Machine learning reveals climate forcing from aerosols is dominated by increased cloud cover
Satellite-based machine-learning analysis of a diffusive volcanic eruption suggests that aerosol climate forcing is dominated by changes in cloud cover, rather than changes in cloud brightness.
- Ying Chen
- , Jim Haywood
- & Ulrike Lohmann
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Article |
Sedimentary basins reduce stability of Antarctic ice streams through groundwater feedbacks
A machine-learning-based mapping of Antarctic subglacial geology suggests sedimentary basins lie beneath some of the most dynamic ice streams, increasing their vulnerability to rapid ice retreat.
- Lu Li
- , Alan R. A. Aitken
- & Bernd Kulessa
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Article |
Rewetting global wetlands effectively reduces major greenhouse gas emissions
Global in situ observations show greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands are lowest when the water table is near the surface, and therefore rewetting wetlands could substantially reduce future emissions.
- Junyu Zou
- , Alan D. Ziegler
- & Zhenzhong Zeng
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Article |
Late Miocene cooling coupled to carbon dioxide with Pleistocene-like climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity in the late Miocene was comparable to the late Pleistocene and twenty-first century, with cooling at the time coupled to declining carbon dioxide, according to a CO2 record determined from boron isotopes in planktic foraminifera
- Rachel M. Brown
- , Thomas B. Chalk
- & Gavin L. Foster
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Article |
Astronomically controlled aridity in the Sahara since at least 11 million years ago
Pulses of Saharan dust have been entering the North Atlantic since at least 11 Ma, a result of astronomically paced cycles between arid and humid conditions in northern Africa, according to a terrigenous input record from an ocean core off west Africa.
- Anya J. Crocker
- , B. David A. Naafs
- & Paul A. Wilson
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Article |
Mapping peat thickness and carbon stocks of the central Congo Basin using field data
Field surveys suggest peatlands in the central Congo Basin are globally significant carbon stocks, storing approximately 28% of the world’s tropical peat carbon.
- Bart Crezee
- , Greta C. Dargie
- & Simon L. Lewis
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Article |
Sustained mid-Pliocene warmth led to deep water formation in the North Pacific
Marine carbon isotope patterns point to substantial deep water formation in the North Pacific during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, according to a synthesis of carbon isotope records and isotope-enabled climate modelling.
- H. L. Ford
- , N. J. Burls
- & A. V. Fedorov
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Research Briefing |
Ozone depletion over the Arctic affects spring climate in the Northern Hemisphere
Ozone depletion is not only a serious health threat but can also affect the climate. Atmospheric chemistry models reveal that springtime Arctic ozone depletion can have major consequences for the seasonal climate in the Northern Hemisphere, including warming over Eurasia and drying across central Europe.
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News & Views |
Thermal bridging by Arctic shrubs
Shrubs act as thermal bridges to conduct heat through the tundra snowpack, fostering heat loss from the ground in winter and heat gain in the spring.
- Michael M. Loranty
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News & Views |
A step forward to mitigate ozone
For decades, ozone pollution mitigation efforts relied on two chemical regimes. A global modelling analysis has revealed a third regime involving aerosols that would help with the concurrent control of both ozone and particulate pollution.
- Audrey Gaudel
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Article
| Open AccessPermafrost cooled in winter by thermal bridging through snow-covered shrub branches
Arctic shrubs cool permafrost in winter by acting as a thermal bridge through the snowpack, according to ground temperature observations and heat transfer simulations.
- Florent Domine
- , Kévin Fourteau
- & Mathilde Poirier
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Article |
Lag in response of coastal barrier-island retreat to sea-level rise
Coastal evolution simulations suggest that the modern retreat of coastal barrier islands is controlled by cumulative sea-level rise over the past several centuries and will accelerate by 50% within a century, even if sea-level rise remains at present rates.
- Giulio Mariotti
- & Christopher J. Hein
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Article |
Springtime arctic ozone depletion forces northern hemisphere climate anomalies
Ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere consistently disrupts surface temperature and precipitation patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, according to atmospheric chemistry–climate modelling and observations.
- Marina Friedel
- , Gabriel Chiodo
- & Thomas Peter
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Article |
Twentieth-century Azores High expansion unprecedented in the past 1,200 years
The Azores High over the North Atlantic has expanded due to anthropogenic climate change, disrupting precipitation patterns in western Europe, according to climate modelling and precipitation proxy records spanning the past millennium.
- Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay
- , Caroline C. Ummenhofer
- & Victor J. Polyak
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Research Briefing |
Daily monitoring reveals global CO2 emission patterns
Monitoring of the daily global CO2 emissions in 2020 reveals the spatial–temporal pattern of the drop in emissions due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The daily CO2 emission changes also reveal different patterns of human activities and fossil CO2 emissions across countries, sectors and periods.
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal patterns of daily CO2 emissions reductions in the first year of COVID-19
Observed daily changes in CO2 emissions from across the globe reveal the sectors and countries where pandemic-related emissions declines were most pronounced in 2020.
- Zhu Liu
- , Zhu Deng
- & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
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Research Briefing |
Closed ocean gateways in the Canadian archipelago are key to glaciation in Scandinavia
In a simulation with a state-of-the-art climate model, obstruction of the ocean gateways in the Canadian archipelago due to ice-sheet growth reroutes currents and alters North Atlantic Ocean conditions, permitting glacial inception in Scandinavia. This mechanism could help to explain periods of rapid ice-sheet growth in Earth’s history.
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Article |
Ice-free tropical waterbelt for Snowball Earth events questioned by uncertain clouds
The ocean during Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth episodes did not have an ice-free belt in the tropics when likely cloud conditions are taken into account, according to climate and energy-balance modelling.
- Christoph Braun
- , Johannes Hörner
- & Joaquim G. Pinto
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Article
| Open AccessRelative sea-level data preclude major late Holocene ice-mass change in Pine Island Bay
The Pine Island Glacier, a locus of ice loss from the modern West Antarctic Ice Sheet, had previously been stable since at least the mid-Holocene, according to records tracking ice extent based on radiocarbon and cosmogenic exposure dating.
- Scott Braddock
- , Brenda L. Hall
- & John Woodward
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Article |
The importance of Canadian Arctic Archipelago gateways for glacial expansion in Scandinavia
Infilling of Canadian Arctic ocean gateways by the Laurentide Ice Sheet probably triggered Scandinavian glaciation during the last glacial inception by increasing North Atlantic freshwater inputs, according to coupled ice-sheet–climate-model simulations.
- Marcus Lofverstrom
- , Diane M. Thompson
- & Esther C. Brady
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Article |
Sub-aerial talik formation observed across the discontinuous permafrost zone of Alaska
Temperature observations from across Alaska show widespread talik formation in the discontinuous permafrost zone due to higher air temperatures and above-average snowfall in recent years.
- Louise M. Farquharson
- , Vladimir E. Romanovsky
- & Dmitry Nicolsky
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Research Briefing |
Biological soil crusts play a key role in current and future global dust cycling
This study shows that by stabilizing the soil, biological soil crusts reduce global atmospheric dust emissions by 60%, corresponding to ~700 Tg of dust per year. According to models of biocrust cover loss, this effect will be reduced in the future, leading to increases in not only dust emissions but also global radiative cooling.
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal cycling and climate effects of aeolian dust controlled by biological soil crusts
Biocrusts reduce global atmospheric dust emission by 60%, and future biocrust losses due to climate and land-use changes will exacerbate this effect, according to global models of dust cycling.
- E. Rodriguez-Caballero
- , T. Stanelle
- & B. Weber
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Editorial |
Catching carbon
Meeting climate targets will require considerable carbon dioxide removal in addition to emission cuts. To achieve this sustainably, a range of methods are needed to avoid adverse effects and match co-benefits with local needs.
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Article
| Open AccessShifts in regional water availability due to global tree restoration
Global tree restoration could cause substantial and regionally variable changes in water availability, according to an ensemble of Budyko models and moisture recycling data.
- Anne J. Hoek van Dijke
- , Martin Herold
- & Adriaan J. Teuling
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Article |
Increasing atmospheric helium due to fossil fuel exploitation
Mass spectrometry measurements show that the concentration of helium in the atmosphere has risen over the past five decades due to fossil fuel emissions.
- Benjamin Birner
- , Jeffrey Severinghaus
- & Ralph F. Keeling
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Article |
Pulses in silicic arc magmatism initiate end-Permian climate instability and extinction
Pulses of silicic arc magmatism—and associated volatile emissions—helped set the timing and magnitude of the environmental disruptions that caused the end-Permian mass extinction, according to U–Pb zircon dating of silicic volcanic and related tephra sequences in eastern Australia.
- Timothy Chapman
- , Luke A. Milan
- & Jim Crowley
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Article |
Intrusions induce global warming before continental flood basalt volcanism
Continental flood basalt emplacement is facilitated by basaltic intrusions, which crystalize and release carbon dioxide leading to pre-eruptive global warming, according to numerical models and a comparison with Deccan Traps and Columbia River Basalt records.
- Xiaochuan Tian
- & W. Roger Buck
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Article |
Antarctic ice-shelf advance driven by anomalous atmospheric and sea-ice circulation
Most of the eastern Antarctic Peninsula’s coastline has undergone uninterrupted advance since the early 2000s due to enhanced near-shore sea ice, according to satellite observations and reanalysis data.
- Frazer D. W. Christie
- , Toby J. Benham
- & Julian A. Dowdeswell
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Article |
Contrasting effects of aridity and seasonality on global salinization
Aridity and rainfall seasonality have contrasting effects on global salinization, according to an analysis combining soil observations and ecohydrological modelling.
- Saverio Perri
- , Annalisa Molini
- & Amilcare Porporato
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Article |
Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom
Enhancing rock weathering across UK croplands could deliver substantial atmospheric carbon dioxide removal alongside agricultural co-benefits, according to coupled climate–carbon–nitrogen cycle model simulations.
- Euripides P. Kantzas
- , Maria Val Martin
- & David J. Beerling
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Article |
A century of groundwater accumulation in Pakistan and northwest India
Observations suggest early twentieth-century human activities, in the form of canal construction, increased groundwater availability in northwest India and Pakistan, in contrast to recent depletion driven by tubewell development and low rainfall.
- D. J. MacAllister
- , G. Krishan
- & A. M. MacDonald
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Article |
Winter particulate pollution severity in North China driven by atmospheric teleconnections
Recurring climatic patterns can be used to predict severe winter particulate air pollution over North China, according to an analysis of wintertime particulate concentrations and atmospheric circulation.
- Jiandong Li
- , Xin Hao
- & Jia Zhu
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Article |
Neogene South Asian monsoon rainfall and wind histories diverged due to topographic effects
A modern-like South Asian Monsoon only appeared when East African and Middle Eastern uplift led to the establishment of the Somali Jet around 13 million years ago, according to Earth system modelling using a range of regional palaeogeographies.
- Anta-Clarisse Sarr
- , Yannick Donnadieu
- & Guillaume Dupont-Nivet
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Article |
Secondary organic aerosol formed by condensing anthropogenic vapours over China’s megacities
The formation of secondary organic aerosol in Chinese megacities is dominated by the condensation of anthropogenic organic vapours, according to measurements across three urbanized regions.
- Wei Nie
- , Chao Yan
- & Aijun Ding
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Article |
Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations
Spontaneous, rapid climate fluctuations occur when atmospheric CO2 is between 190 and 225 ppm, helping explain short-term warm–cool transitions during glacial climate states, according to combined Earth system and dynamical systems model simulations.
- Guido Vettoretti
- , Peter Ditlevsen
- & Sune Olander Rasmussen
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Article |
Sea spray as an obscured source for marine cloud nuclei
Very small aerosols from sea spray make up a larger proportion of cloud condensation nuclei than previously recognized, according to an analysis of five years of aerosol ground-based measurement data from over the Atlantic Ocean.
- Wei Xu
- , Jurgita Ovadnevaite
- & Colin O’Dowd