Featured
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Regional rare-earth element supply and demand balanced with circular economy strategies
Mobilization of in-use rare-earth element stocks in regions of high consumption can ease dependence on regions of rare-earth extraction, according to dynamic integrated modelling combining material flow and scenario analysis.
- Peng Wang
- , Yu-Yao Yang
- & Wei-Qiang Chen
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Article |
Enhanced stability of grassland soil temperature by plant diversity
Plant diversity stabilizes grassland soil temperature by boosting soil organic carbon and increasing plant leaf area, according to an 18-year plant diversity experiment.
- Yuanyuan Huang
- , Gideon Stein
- & Nico Eisenhauer
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Editorial |
Heatwave resilience
Climate change together with the recent onset of El Niño this year has led to widespread heatwaves. As these events become increasingly commonplace, cities around the world urgently need to build resilience to heat.
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News & Views |
Cooler forests in clean air
Improving air quality by reducing atmospheric aerosols can bring valuable health benefits, but also generally leads to warming. Now, research suggests that in cleaner air the local cooling effect of planting trees may be stronger in middle and low latitude regions.
- Liang Chen
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Article |
Local surface cooling from afforestation amplified by lower aerosol pollution
Climate model simulations suggest that reducing aerosol pollution enhances the cooling effects of afforestation, which could partially counteract the warming effect of air quality measures.
- Jun Ge
- , Xin Huang
- & Weidong Guo
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Editorial |
Reversing climate overshoot
Temporarily overshooting climate targets is a distinct possibility given our current emissions trajectory. It is crucial that we understand which of the associated impacts are reversible, and to what extent.
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News & Views |
Subsoil carbon loss
A field-based study of 4.5 years of whole-soil warming reveals that warming stimulates loss of structurally complex organic carbon at the same rate as that for bulk organic carbon in subsoil.
- Ji Chen
- , Yiqi Luo
- & Robert L. Sinsabaugh
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Article
| Open AccessSurface warming and wetting due to methane’s long-wave radiative effects muted by short-wave absorption
Climate simulations suggest that the contribution of methane to climate warming and wetting due to absorption of long-wave radiation is partially counteracted by short-wave absorption.
- Robert J. Allen
- , Xueying Zhao
- & Christopher J. Smith
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Perspective |
Orange hydrogen is the new green
Enhancing natural subsurface hydrogen production through water injection could make a substantial contribution to achieving the low-carbon energy transition that is required to limit global warming.
- F. Osselin
- , C. Soulaine
- & M. Pichavant
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Article |
Drought resistance enhanced by tree species diversity in global forests
Tree species diversity promotes drought resistance in nearly half of global forests, according to a global analysis of the relationship between species richness and drought-induced changes in forest productivity.
- Dan Liu
- , Tao Wang
- & Shilong Piao
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal patterns of daily CO2 emissions reductions in the first year of COVID-19
Observed daily changes in CO2 emissions from across the globe reveal the sectors and countries where pandemic-related emissions declines were most pronounced in 2020.
- Zhu Liu
- , Zhu Deng
- & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
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Editorial |
Catching carbon
Meeting climate targets will require considerable carbon dioxide removal in addition to emission cuts. To achieve this sustainably, a range of methods are needed to avoid adverse effects and match co-benefits with local needs.
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Article |
Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom
Enhancing rock weathering across UK croplands could deliver substantial atmospheric carbon dioxide removal alongside agricultural co-benefits, according to coupled climate–carbon–nitrogen cycle model simulations.
- Euripides P. Kantzas
- , Maria Val Martin
- & David J. Beerling
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Article |
Risks to carbon storage from land-use change revealed by peat thickness maps of Peru
Changes in land use threaten the stability of carbon in Peru’s peatlands, which store almost as much carbon as the entirety of the above-ground Peruvian carbon stock but in 5% of the land area, according to maps of the extent and depth of peat.
- Adam Hastie
- , Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado
- & Ian T. Lawson
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Article |
Sulfur emissions from consumption by developed and developing countries produce comparable climate impacts
Sulfur dioxide emissions due to consumption by developed and developing countries differ in magnitude but produce comparable climate impacts due to the regional distribution of emissions, according to simulations using an Earth system model.
- Jintai Lin
- , Chunjiang Zhou
- & Yongyun Hu
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Editorial |
Complexities of coastal resilience
Mitigating the risks of coastal flooding as sea levels rise requires management of sediment as well as water.
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Article |
Influence of biogenic emissions from boreal forests on aerosol–cloud interactions
Emissions from the boreal forest biosphere can substantially increase aerosol load above the forest and influence the radiative properties of clouds, according to analysis of observations from a monitoring station in Finland.
- T. Petäjä
- , K. Tabakova
- & V.-M. Kerminen
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Editorial |
Methane matters
The Global Methane Pledge is a good start, but larger cuts in emissions are achievable with current technology. More ambition is needed to help limit warming to 1.5 °C.
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News & Views |
Planting trees to combat drought
Reforestation of agricultural lands in Europe increases local and downwind summer rainfall, according to a new analysis of rain-gauge measurements from across the continent. Realistic levels of tree planting could therefore mitigate future droughts expected with climate change.
- Jessica C. A. Baker
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Article |
Granular decoherence precedes ice mélange failure and glacier calving at Jakobshavn Isbræ
Calving of an outlet glacier in Greenland is consistently preceded by distinctive flow patterns in the mélange of sea ice and icebergs in front of the terminus, according to terrestrial radar observations and particle dynamic modelling of the Jakobshavn Isbræ system.
- Ryan K. Cassotto
- , Justin C. Burton
- & Martin Truffer
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Editorial |
Valuing wetlands
Wetlands provide a wealth of societal and climatic benefits. Balanced conservation strategies are needed to ensure their protection in the twenty-first century and beyond.
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Article |
Increased carbon footprint of materials production driven by rise in investments
Investment in capital formation between 1995 and 2015 has driven a 120% increase in the greenhouse gas emissions from material production, according to a multiregional input–output model of the global economy.
- Edgar G. Hertwich
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Perspective |
Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy
Uncertainties and subjective choices affecting remaining carbon budgets should be fully considered when applying them to international and national climate policies.
- H. Damon Matthews
- , Katarzyna B. Tokarska
- & Kirsten Zickfeld
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Editorial |
Mining’s climate accountability
Mineral extraction will play an important role in climate change mitigation and green technologies. But ensuring that the net effect of mining is beneficial requires careful monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts.
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Comment |
Govern CO2 removal from the ground up
Scientists and policymakers must acknowledge that carbon dioxide removal can be small in scale and still be relevant for climate policy, that it will primarily emerge ‘bottom up’, and that different methods have different governance needs.
- Rob Bellamy
- & Oliver Geden
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Article |
Persistent polar ocean warming in a strategically geoengineered climate
Changes in the water cycle arising from a strategic geoengineering approach alter the ocean circulation and structure, according to an ensemble of simulations with an Earth System Model.
- John T. Fasullo
- , Simone Tilmes
- & Isla R. Simpson
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Article |
Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release
Carbon release from permafrost thaw would substantially decrease the amount of carbon emissions required to meet climate targets, according to climate simulations.
- T. Gasser
- , M. Kechiar
- & M. Obersteiner
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Article |
Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks
Climate feedbacks associated with wetland methane emissions and permafrost-thaw carbon release substantially reduce available carbon budgets to achieve temperature targets, suggest simulations with a climate–land-surface model system.
- Edward Comyn-Platt
- , Garry Hayman
- & Stephen Sitch
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News & Views |
Countdown to 1.5 °C warming
If emissions continue at the present-day rate, about 22 years are left until global mean warming reaches the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target, suggests a new metric based on the observed level and rate of anthropogenic warming.
- Katarzyna B. Tokarska
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Article |
Current level and rate of warming determine emissions budgets under ambitious mitigation
A combination of the level and rate of human-induced warming allows estimation of remaining emission budgets to peak warming across a broad range of scenarios, suggests an analysis of emissions budgets expressed in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent emissions.
- Nicholas J. Leach
- , Richard J. Millar
- & Myles R. Allen
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Comment |
Beyond carbon budgets
The remaining carbon budget consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C allows 20 more years of current emissions according to one study, but is already exhausted according to another. Both are defensible. We need to move on from a unique carbon budget, and face the nuances.
- Glen P. Peters
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Comment |
Politically informed advice for climate action
Upward estimates for carbon budgets are unlikely to lead to action-focused climate policy. Climate researchers need to understand processes and incentives in policymaking and politics to communicate effectively.
- Oliver Geden
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Correspondence |
Reply to ‘Interpretations of the Paris climate target’
- Richard J. Millar
- , Jan S. Fuglestvedt
- & Myles R. Allen
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Correspondence |
Interpretations of the Paris climate target
- A. P. Schurer
- , K. Cowtan
- & S. F. B. Tett
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Comment |
Define limits for temperature overshoot targets
Temperature overshoot scenarios that make the 1.5 °C climate target feasible could turn into sources of political flexibility. Climate scientists must provide clear constraints on overshoot magnitude, duration and timing, to ensure accountability.
- Oliver Geden
- & Andreas Löschel
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Article |
Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C
If CO2 emissions after 2015 do not exceed 200 GtC, climate warming after 2015 will fall below 0.6 °C in 66% of CMIP5 models, according to an analysis based on combining a simple climate–carbon-cycle model with estimated ranges for key climate system properties.
- Richard J. Millar
- , Jan S. Fuglestvedt
- & Myles R. Allen
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Article |
Hotspots of soil N2O emission enhanced through water absorption by plant residue
Production of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide occurs episodically in small soil volumes. Soil microcosm experiments reveal that water absorption by plant residue raises moisture levels and accelerates nitrous oxide production by microbial denitrification.
- A. N. Kravchenko
- , E. R. Toosi
- & G. P. Robertson
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News & Views |
Warming from freezing soils
Freezing and thawing of soils leads to large pulses of nitrous oxide release. An empirical model shows that cropland winter nitrous oxide emissions are substantial, calling for a revision of the global nitrous oxide budget.
- Klaus Butterbach-Bahl
- & Benjamin Wolf
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Editorial |
A step up for geoengineering
The clock is ticking for climate change mitigation. Geoengineering is gaining ground as an option, but it needs to be examined at a large scale to determine its effectiveness and associated risks.
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Commentary |
No fudging on geoengineering
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is preparing a report on keeping global warming below 1.5 °C. How the panel chooses to deal with the option of solar geoengineering will test the integrity of scientific climate policy advice.
- Andy Parker
- & Oliver Geden
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Letter |
Substantial global carbon uptake by cement carbonation
Cement production is a source of CO2. Analysis of carbonation, a process that sequesters CO2 during the lifetime of cement, suggests that between 1930 and 2013, it has offset 43% of CO2 emissions from cement production globally.
- Fengming Xi
- , Steven J. Davis
- & Zhu Liu
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Commentary |
Pathways to zero emissions
To keep global warming below 2 °C, countries need long-term strategies for low-emission development. Without these, immediate emissions reductions may lock-in high-emitting infrastructure, hamper collaboration and make climate goals unachievable.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs
- , Guido Schmidt-Traub
- & Jim Williams
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Commentary |
China's post-coal growth
Slowing GDP growth, a structural shift away from heavy industry, and more proactive policies on air pollution and clean energy have caused China's coal use to peak. It seems that economic growth has decoupled from growth in coal consumption.
- Ye Qi
- , Nicholas Stern
- & Fergus Green
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Commentary |
An actionable climate target
The Paris Agreement introduced three mitigation targets. In the future, the main focus should not be on temperature targets such as 2 or 1.5 °C, but on the target with the greatest potential to effectively guide policy: net zero emissions.
- Oliver Geden
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Commentary |
Cities lead on climate change
The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.
- Richard D. Pancost
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Editorial |
End of the slo-mo?
As the world's leaders are negotiating climate change mitigation in Paris, a strong El Niño brings the warmest year on record. After a decade and a half of slow warming and slow policy progress, 2015 may bring an acceleration of both.
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Commentary |
Policy thresholds in mitigation
Some climate change impacts rise fast with little warming, and then taper off. To avoid diminishing incentives to reduce emissions and inadvertently slipping into a lower-welfare world, mitigation policy needs to be ambitious early on.
- Katharine L. Ricke
- , Juan B. Moreno-Cruz
- & Ken Caldeira
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Perspective |
A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target
Many governments agreed to limit global mean temperature change to below 2 °C, yet this level has not been assessed scientifically. A synthesis of the literature suggests that temperature is the best available target quantity, but a safe level is uncertain.
- Reto Knutti
- , Joeri Rogelj
- & Erich M. Fischer
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Editorial |
Preserve soil's riches
The International Year of Soils draws attention to our vital dependence on the fertile crumb beneath our feet. Soil is renewable, but it takes careful stewardship to keep it healthy and plentiful.