Research articles

The remaining carbon budget (RCB) is a critical estimate of the carbon that can be emitted while staying within a particular temperature threshold. This study provides an updated assessment of the RCB using recent data and robustness checks to increase confidence in the estimate.

The authors use fisheries databases and predictive models to understand past and future changes in the availability of iron, calcium omega-3 and protein from seafood. They show disproportional loss of nutrients in tropical low-income countries, which will be exacerbated by higher levels of global warming.

The authors use a regional ocean model to project ocean-driven ice-shelf melt in the Amundsen Sea. Already committed rapid ocean warming drives increased melt, regardless of emission scenario, suggesting extensive ice loss from West Antarctica.

Wildfire can lead to shifts in forest composition to more deciduous tree cover, which can have a biophysical cooling effect on climate. This study finds no net increase in deciduous cover or biophysical cooling over boreal North America in recent decades, despite widespread landscape scale change.

Assessing adaptation progress is key to reducing risk associated with climate change, yet the status of adaptation in most sectors is unclear. This study assesses the state of coastal adaptation globally and finds that current efforts fulfil about half of the total potential.

For global adaptation effort, it is essential to understand which actors are participating and what their roles are. This Analysis, based on comparative case studies, displays the dominant actors in adaptation, and how the actor–role patterns vary across regions.

Projections of ocean heat transport show a decrease which is driven by a decline in overturning circulation. Such a decrease in ocean heat transport can dampen the global warming signal in Northwest Europe.

Protest plays an essential role in promoting climate actions, yet individual participation decisions are influenced by expectations about other people’s attendance. This study displays evidence on strategic substitutability, that is, respondents are less motivated if they expect high turnout.

Autonomous sampling enables increased data collection in the ocean to understand circulation and water property changes. This study uses data from underwater gliders and profiling floats to show a shoreward lateral shift in Gulf Stream waters, which have warmed and become lighter since 2001.

Fire impacts soil organic carbon stocks, in addition to aboveground biomass, yet changes are not well constrained. This study shows that more soil carbon is lost from drier ecosystems than humid ones and that the carbon sink is increasing in savannah–grassland regions with declining burned area.

To test the reproducibility of ocean acidification research, the authors conducted a meta-analysis of 373 studies on calcification of marine calcifiers across 24 years. While the size of negative effects declined over time, the results remained reproducible and their limitations were then explored.

Changes in air temperature are usually considered for quantifying changes in temperature extremes such as heatwaves. This study shows that the incidence of heat extremes in soils is increasing faster than air temperature in some regions, with implications for hydrological and biogeochemical processes.

The decarbonization of the global iron and steel industry is important for energy systems mitigation. Using a facility-level database, this Article presents cost-effective, region-specific strategies targeting plants with a large age-to-capacity ratio and/or high emissions intensity.

Recent decades have seen the increasing frequency of multiyear La Niña events. Here the authors find that there are two different types of multiyear La Niña that are each linked to different mechanisms related to warming in the western equatorial Pacific.

The authors estimate the intensity, duration and number of global marine heatwaves from 1993 to 2019, from the surface to 2,000 m. They show generally higher intensity of marine heatwaves at 50–200 m, but increased duration with depth, and predict ocean regions of higher biodiversity exposure.

Warming waters in a changing climate have led to declining oxygen levels in oceans and lakes; the impact on rivers has been less clear. This study shows that widespread deoxygenation in rivers in the United States and Central Europe may accelerate under climate change and influence water quality.

Climate policy requires proenvironment attitudes and voting by the public in democracies, yet economic conditions can impact such perceptions and behaviour. Higher exposure to globalization can lead to lower support for environmentalist parties and more climate scepticism.

Non-CO₂ emissions, including methane and nitrous oxide, are non-negligible contributors to global warming. A multimodel analysis incorporating recent advances in damage functions shows that the social cost of these greenhouse gases would increase substantially, although uncertainty remains.