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Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 614–617 (2016)Cite this article

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Abstract

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics1,2,3. So far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in spatial synchrony—the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape4—despite the importance of environmental synchrony as a driver of population trends and the central role of environmental variability in population rescue and extinction1,5,6. Here we demonstrate that across North America, spatial synchrony of a significant proportion of 49 widespread North American wintering bird species has increased over the past 50 years—the period encompassing particularly intense anthropogenic effects in climate—paralleling significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature. These results suggest the potential for increased spatial synchrony in environmental factors to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena. These effects are likely to vary, but for North American wildlife species, increased spatial synchrony driven by environmental factors may be the basis for a previously unrecognized threat to their long-term persistence in the form of more synchronized population dynamics reducing the potential for demographic rescue among interacting subpopulations.

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Figure 1: Locations of North American bird survey sites and weather stations used in the analyses of spatial synchrony.
Figure 2: Overall spatial synchrony for 49 North American wintering bird species.
Figure 3: Overall change in spatial synchrony of mean maximum temperature across North America, 1960–2009.
Figure 4: Temporal change in spatial synchrony in North American annual mean maximum temperature.

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Acknowledgements

We thank A. Allstadt, J. Buonaccorsi, C. Cooper, A. Dhondt, W. Hochachka and B. Zuckerberg for comments, discussion and statistical advice. This work was funded by National Science Foundation grants IOS-0918944 and DEB-1256394 to W.D.K.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cornell Lab of Ornithology, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, New York 14850, USA

    Walter D. Koenig

  2. Department of Neurobiology and Behavior, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA

    Walter D. Koenig

  3. USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station, 180 Canfield Street, Morgantown, West Virginia 26505, USA

    Andrew M. Liebhold

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W.D.K. conducted the data analysis; A.M.L. provided critical advice regarding the approach and analyses. Both authors contributed to writing the paper.

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Correspondence to Walter D. Koenig.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Koenig, W., Liebhold, A. Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations. Nature Clim Change 6, 614–617 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2933

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