Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Subjects

Abstract

Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Antarctic atmosphere–ocean–ice changes over the satellite-observing era.
Figure 2: Antarctic climate variability and trends over the past 200 years from long observational and proxy-derived indicators.
Figure 3: Antarctic climate trends in CMIP5 simulations.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Church, J. A. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 13 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  2. Bindschadler, R. A. et al. Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project). J. Glaciol. 59, 195–224 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Ritz, C. et al. Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations. Nature 528, 115–118 (2015).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Majkut, J. D. et al. An observing system simulation for Southern Ocean carbon dioxide uptake. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 372, 20130046 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Landschutzer, P. et al. The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. Science 349, 1221–1224 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Rhein, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 3 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Roemmich, D. et al. Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 240–245 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Levitus, S. et al. World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L10603 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Thompson, D. W. J. & Wallace, J. M. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J. Clim. 13, 1000–1016 (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Thompson, D. W. J. et al. Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change. Nat. Geosci. 4, 741–749 (2011). The stratospheric ozone hole in the Southern Hemisphere has led to a strengthening of westerly winds in austral summer (that is, a positive Southern Annular Mode), leading to a range of surface climate impacts.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Ding, Q., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S. & Kuettel, M. Winter warming in West Antarctica caused by central tropical Pacific warming. Nat. Geosci. 4, 398–403 (2011).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Eisenman, I., Meier, W. N. & Norris, J. R. A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? Cryosphere 8, 1289–1296 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Cavalieri, D. J., Parkinson, C. L. & Vinnikov, K. Y. 30-year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1970 (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Meier, W. N., Gallaher, D. & Campbell, G. G. New estimates of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent during September 1964 from recovered Nimbus I satellite imagery. Cryosphere 7, 699–705 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  16. Gallaher, D. W., Campbell, G. G. & Meier, W. N. Anomalous variability in Antarctic sea ice extents during the 1960s with the use of Nimbus data. IEEE J. Sel. Topics Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens. 7, 881–887 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Fan, T., Deser, C. & Schneider, D. P. Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 2419–2426 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  18. Abram, N. J. et al. Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 564–569 (2014). The SAM index has undergone large centennial variability, with a progressive shift towards a positive phase since the fifteenth century.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Thompson, D. W. J. & Solomon, S. Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296, 895–899 (2002).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Marshall, G. J. Half-century seasonal relationships between the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic temperatures. Int. J. Climatol. 27, 373–383 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Sen Gupta, A. & England, M. H. Coupled ocean–atmosphere–ice response to variations in the Southern Annular Mode. J. Clim. 19, 4457–4486 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Spence, P. et al. Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 4601–4610, (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Gille, S. T. Decadal-scale temperature trends in the Southern Hemisphere ocean. J. Clim. 21, 4749–4765 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F. & Aoki, S. Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters. Science 346, 1227–1231 (2014).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Ferreira, D., Marshall, J., Bitz, C. M., Solomon, S. & Plumb, A. Antarctic Ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two-time-scale problem. J. Clim. 28, 1206–1226 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Fogt, R. L. et al. Historical SAM variability. Part II: Twentieth-century variability and trends from reconstructions, observations, and the IPCC AR4 Models. J. Clim. 22, 5346–5365 (2009). Simulations from IPCC AR4 models did not fully capture the observed natural variability in the SAM, although they are reasonably successfully at capturing the strong summertime trends since 1957.

    Google Scholar 

  27. Gillett, N. P. & Thompson, D. W. J. Simulation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 302, 273–275 (2003).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. Steig, E. J. et al. Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature 457, 459–462 (2009).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Ding, Q., Steig, E. J., Battisti, D. S. & Wallace, J. M. Influence of the tropics on the Southern Annular Mode. J. Clim. 25, 6330–6348 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Bromwich, D. H. et al. Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. Nat. Geosci. 6, 139–145 (2013).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  31. Ding, Q. & Steig, E. J. Temperature change on the Antarctic Peninsula linked to the tropical Pacific. J. Clim. 26, 7570–7585 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Clem, K. R. & Fogt, R. L. South Pacific circulation changes and their connection to the tropics and regional Antarctic warming in austral spring, 1979–2012. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120, 2773–2792 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Holland, P. R. & Kwok, R. Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea-ice drift. Nat. Geosci. 5, 872–875 (2012).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  34. Raphael, M. et al. The Amundsen Sea Low: variability, change and impact on Antarctic Climate. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97, 111–121 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  35. Turner, J., Phillips, T., Hosking, J. S., Marshall, G. J. & Orr, A. The Amundsen Sea Low. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 1818–1829 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  36. Turner, J., Hosking, J. S., Bracegirdle, T. J., Marshall, G. J. & Phillips, T. Recent changes in Antarctic Sea Ice. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140163 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Fogt, R. L. & Wovrosh, A. J. The relative influence of tropical sea surface temperatures and radiative forcing on the Amundsen Sea Low. J. Clim. 28, 8540–8555 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  38. Hosking, J. S., Orr, A., Marshall, G. J., Turner, J. & Phillips, T. The influence of the Amundsen–Bellingshausen seas low on the climate of West Antarctica and its representation in coupled climate model simulations. J. Clim. 26, 6633–6648 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  39. Stammerjohn, S. E., Martinson, D. G., Smith, R. C., Yuan, X. & Rind, D. Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Nino–Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode variability. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 113, C03S90 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  40. Schneider, D. P., Deser, C. & Okumura, Y. An assessment and interpretation of the observed warming of West Antarctica in the austral spring. Clim. Dynam. 38, 323–347 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  41. Rye, C. D. et al. Rapid sea-level rise along the Antarctic margins in response to increased glacial discharge. Nat. Geosci. 7, 732–735 (2014).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  42. de Lavergne, C., Palter, J. B., Galbraith, E. D., Bernardello, R. & Marinov, I. Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 278–282 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  43. Bintanja, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Drijfhout, S. S., Wouters, B. & Katsman, C. A. Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion. Nat. Geosci. 6, 376–379 (2013). As a result of basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves, a layer of cool, fresh meltwater in the surface ocean around Antarctica increases stratification, and according to some model simulations this may have contributed to the recent expansion of sea-ice extent, although the magnitude of this effect is uncertain.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  44. Swart, N. C. & Fyfe, J. C. The influence of recent Antarctic ice sheet retreat on simulated sea ice area trends. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 4328–4332 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  45. Scambos, T. A., Hulbe, C., Fahnestock, M. & Bohlander, J. The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula. J. Glaciol. 46, 516–530 (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  46. Pritchard, H. D. et al. Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves. Nature 484, 502–505 (2012).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  47. Jenkins, A. et al. Observations beneath Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica and implications for its retreat. Nat. Geosci. 3, 468–472 (2010).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  48. Dutrieux, P. et al. Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability. Science 343, 174–178 (2014).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  49. Jacobs, S. S., Jenkins, A., Giulivi, C. F. & Dutrieux, P. Stronger ocean circulation and increased melting under Pine Island Glacier ice shelf. Nat. Geosci. 4, 519–523 (2011).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  50. Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Battisti, D. S. & Jenkins, A. Tropical forcing of Circumpolar Deep Water Inflow and outlet glacier thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica. Ann. Glaciol. 53, 19–28 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  51. Kirkman, C. H. & Bitz, C. M. The effect of the sea ice freshwater flux on Southern Ocean temperatures in CCSM3: deep-ocean warming and delayed surface warming. J. Clim. 24, 2224–2237 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  52. Goosse, H. & Zunz, V. Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice–ocean feedback. Cryosphere 8, 453–470 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  53. King, J. C. & Turner, J. T. Antarctic Meteorology and Climatology (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1997).

    Google Scholar 

  54. Abram, N. J. et al. Acceleration of snow melt in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core during the twentieth century. Nat. Geosci. 6, 404–411 (2013).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  55. Thomas, E. R., Dennis, P. F., Bracegirdle, T. J. & Franzke, C. Ice core evidence for significant 100-year regional warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L20704 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  56. Thomas, E. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Turner, J. & Wolff, E. W. A 308 year record of climate variability in West Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 5492–5496 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  57. Thomas, E. R., Marshall, G. J. & McConnell, J. R. A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L01706 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  58. Thomas, E. R., Hosking, J. S., Tuckwell, R. R., Warren, R. A. & Ludlow, E. C. Twentieth century increase in snowfall in coastal West Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 9387–9393 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  59. Mulvaney, R. et al. Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history. Nature 489, 141–144 (2012).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  60. Abram, N. J., Wolff, E. W. & Curran, M. A. J. A review of sea ice proxy information from polar ice cores. Quat. Sci. Rev. 79, 168–183 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  61. Abram, N. J. et al. Ice core evidence for a 20th century decline of sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115, D23101 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  62. Murphy, E. J., Clarke, A., Abram, N. J. & Turner, J. Variability of sea-ice in the northern Weddell Sea during the 20th century. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 119, 4549–4572 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  63. Orsi, A. J., Cornuelle, B. D. & Severinghaus, J. P. Little Ice Age cold interval in West Antarctica: evidence from borehole temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L09710 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  64. Steig, E. J. & Orsi, A. J. The heat is on in Antarctica. Nat. Geosci. 6, 87–88 (2013).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  65. Steig, E. J. et al. Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years. Nat. Geosci. 6, 372–375 (2013). Temperatures have increased significantly in West Antarctica during the past 50 years but similar or higher temperatures have probably occurred in the past 2,000 years.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  66. Kuettel, M., Steig, E. J., Ding, Q., Monaghan, A. J. & Battisti, D. S. Seasonal climate information preserved in West Antarctic ice core water isotopes: relationships to temperature, large-scale circulation, and sea ice. Clim. Dynam. 39, 1841–1857 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  67. Bromwich, D. H. et al. Corrigendum: Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. Nat. Geosci. 7, 76–76 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  68. Connolley, W. M. Variability in annual mean circulation in southern high latitudes. Clim. Dynam. 13, 745–756 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  69. Lachlan-Cope, T. & Connolley, W. Teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and the Amundsen–Bellinghausens Sea: role of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 111, D23101 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  70. Schneider, D. P. & Steig, E. J. Ice cores record significant 1940s Antarctic warmth related to tropical climate variability. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 12154–12158 (2008).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  71. Schlosser, E. et al. Recent climate tendencies on an East Antarctic ice shelf inferred from a shallow firn core network. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 119, 6549–6562 (2014).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  72. Altnau, S., Schlosser, E., Isaksson, E. & Divine, D. Climatic signals from 76 shallow firn cores in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Cryosphere 9, 925–944 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  73. Campagne, P. et al. Glacial ice and atmospheric forcing on the Mertz Glacier Polynya over the past 250 years. Nat. Commun. 6, 1–9 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  74. Curran, M. A. J., van Ommen, T. D., Morgan, V. I., Phillips, K. L. & Palmer, A. S. Ice core evidence for Antarctic sea ice decline since the 1950s. Science 302, 1203–1206 (2003).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  75. Muto, A., Scambos, T. A., Steffen, K., Slater, A. G. & Clow, G. D. Recent surface temperature trends in the interior of East Antarctica from borehole firn temperature measurements and geophysical inverse methods. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L15502 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  76. Jones, J. M. et al. Historical SAM Variability. Part I: Century-length seasonal reconstructions. J. Clim. 22, 5319–5345 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  77. Visbeck, M. A station-based Southern Annular Mode index from 1884 to 2005. J. Clim. 22, 940–950 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  78. Jones, J. M. & Widmann, M. Instrument- and tree-ring-based estimates of the Antarctic oscillation. J. Clim. 16, 3511–3524 (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  79. Villalba, R. et al. Unusual Southern Hemisphere tree growth patterns induced by changes in the Southern Annular Mode. Nat. Geosci. 5, 793–798 (2012).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  80. Zunz, V., Goosse, H. & Massonnet, F. How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent? Cryosphere 7, 451–468 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  81. Shu, Q., Song, Z. & Qiao, F. Assessment of sea ice simulations in the CMIP5 models. Cryosphere 9, 399–409 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  82. Purich, A. P., Cai, W., England, M. H. & Cowan, T. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes. Nat. Commun. 7, 1–9 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  83. Notz, D. How well must climate models agree with observations? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140164 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  84. Bothe, O. et al. Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. Clim. Past 11, 1673–1699 (2015). Assessments of palaeoclimate data records and model simulations suggest consistency in the Northern Hemisphere but disagreement in the Southern Hemisphere, where models may underestimate the magnitude of internal variability or overestimate the response to external forcing.

    Google Scholar 

  85. Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L01702 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  86. de la Mare, W. K. Whaling records and changes in Antarctic sea ice: consistency with historical records. Polar Record 38, 355–358 (2002).

    Google Scholar 

  87. de la Mare, W. K. Changes in Antarctic sea-ice extent from direct historical observations and whaling records. Clim. Change 92, 461–493 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  88. Cotte, C. & Guinet, C. Historical whaling records reveal major regional retreat of Antarctic sea ice. Deep-Sea Res. Part I: Oceanogr. Res. Pap. 54, 243–252 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  89. Hobbs, W. R., Bindoff, N. L. & Raphael, M. N. New perspectives on observed and simulated Antarctic sea ice extent trends using optimal fingerprinting techniques. J. Clim. 28, 1543–1560 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  90. Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J. & Scheuchl, B. Ice-shelf melting around Antarctica. Science 341, 266–270 (2013).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  91. Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A. & Padman, L. Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating. Science 348, 327–331 (2015).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  92. Swingedouw, D. et al. Antarctic ice-sheet melting provides negative feedbacks on future climate warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L17705 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  93. Hellmer, H. H., Kauker, F., Timmermann, R., Determann, J. & Rae, J. Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current. Nature 485, 225–228 (2012).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  94. Fogwill, C. J., Phipps, S. J., Turney, C. S. M. & Golledge, N. R. Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input. Earth's Future 3, 317–329 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  95. Kay, J. E. et al. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 1333–1349 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  96. Rayner, N. A. et al. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 108, 4407 (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  97. Laloyaux, P., Balmaseda, M., Dee, D., Mogensen, K. & Janssen, P. A coupled data assimilation system for climate reanalysis. Q. J. R. Soc. 142, 65–78 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  98. Goosse, H., Lefebvre, W., de Montety, A., Crespin, E. & Orsi, A. H. Consistent past half-century trends in the atmosphere, the sea ice and the ocean at high southern latitudes. Clim. Dynam. 33, 999–1016 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  99. Gillett, N. P. et al. Attribution of polar warming to human influence. Nat. Geosci. 1, 750–754 (2008).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  100. Bindoff, N. L. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 10 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank H. Diamond, I. Goodwin, J. McClean, J. Twedt, J. Severinghaus, C. Wilkinson, R. Wilson and U. Zajacazkovski for their contributions to the meeting at which this paper was planned. The meeting and this project were supported by the Climate and Cryosphere project of the World Climate Research Programme (through the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative) and the Government of Canada through the Federal Department of the Environment. We also thank Past Global Changes (PAGES) for supporting this meeting; D. McCutcheon for producing Supplementary Fig. 1; the SCAR-Reader project for providing the Antarctic station data; J. Nicolas and D. Bromwich for making the Antarctic surface temperature reconstruction available; the National Snow and Ice Data Centre for provision of the sea-ice data; the ECMWF for providing the Era Interim reanalysis; and NOAA for providing the SST data. We thank the many scientists who made their published palaeoclimate datasets available via public data repositories or personal requests, and we acknowledge the efforts of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group in compiling many of the palaeoclimate records used in this study. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. The US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support for CMIP and led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

Support was provided by the following organizations: N.J.A: QEII fellowship and Discovery Project awarded by the Australian Research Council (ARC DP110101161 and DP140102059); M.H.E., ARC Laureate Fellowship (FL100100214); V.M.D., Agence Nationale de la Recherche, project ANR-14-CE01-0001 (ASUMA), and logistical support to French Antarctic studies from the Institut Polaire Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV); B.S., PAGES Antarctica 2k and the ESF-PolarClimate HOLOCLIP project; H.G., the Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS-Belgium), where he is Research Director; P.O.C., research grant ANPCyT PICT2012 2927; R.L.F., NSF grant 1341621; E.J.S., the Leverhulme Trust; S.T.G., NSF grants OCE-1234473 and PLR-1425989; D.P.S., NSF grant 1235231; NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF); G.R.S., NSF grants AGS-1206120 and AGS-1407360; D.S., the French ANR CEPS project Green Greenland (ANR-10-CEPL-0008); G.J.M., UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through the British Antarctic Survey research programme Polar Science for Planet Earth; A.K.M., US Department of Energy under contract DE-SC0012457; K.R.C., VUW doctoral scholarship; L.M.F., Australian Research Council (FL100100214); D.J.C., NERC grant NE/H014896/1; C.d.L., UPMC doctoral scholarship; A.J.O., EU grant FP7-PEOPLE-2012-IIF 331615; X.C., the French ANR CLIMICE (ANR-08-CEXC-012-01) and the FP7 PAST4FUTURE (243908) projects; J.A.R., Marsden grant VUW1408; I.E., NSF grant OCE-1357078; T.R.V., the Australian Government's Cooperative Research Centres programme, through the ACE CRC.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

All authors conceived the paper. J.M.J., H.G. and S.T.G. organized the contributions to the manuscript, and contributed to writing and editing the manuscript. Observational data: G.R.S. undertook data analysis and figure preparation (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 2), which included contributions from M.H.E., E.J.S. and G.J.M.; M.H.E., G.R.S., J.A.R., R.L.F., M.N.R., G.J.M., D.P.S., I.E., P.O.C. and K.R.C. all contributed to discussions of analysis design, and to writing and revising the Antarctic climate monitoring section, and associated methods. Palaeoclimate and historical data: N.J.A. undertook the data compilation, with data contributions from B.S., A.J.O., X.C., P.O.C. and D.J.C. N.J.A. and T.R.V. prepared the figures (Fig. 2 and Supplementary Figs 3 and 4). T.R.V., N.J.A., P.O.C., D.J.C., X.C., V.M.D., A.J.O., E.J.S. and B.S. all contributed to discussions of analysis design, and to writing and revising the section on historical records and natural archives, and associated methods. Climate simulations: D.S. undertook coordination, D.S., C.d.L., N.J.A., A.K.M. and L.M.F. undertook data analysis, and C.d.L. and N.J.A. prepared the figures (Fig. 3 and Supplementary Fig. 5). D.S., N.J.A., M.H.E., L.M.F., C.d.L. and A.K.M. all contributed to discussions of analysis design, and to writing and revising the section on simulated Antarctic climate trends and variability, and associated methods. All authors reviewed the full manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Julie M. Jones.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Data and Methods (PDF 2514 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Jones, J., Gille, S., Goosse, H. et al. Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. Nature Clim Change 6, 917–926 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing