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Reply to 'Volcanic effects on climate'

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 4–5 (2016)Cite this article

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Johansson et al. reply —

Our Letter1 aimed to estimate how probability density functions of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) change as observations accumulate. To elucidate the causes of these changes we decomposed the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) variability over the instrumental period into four contributing factors: anthropogenic, solar and volcanic forcing, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Santer et al.2 argue that we underestimate volcanic forcing in response to the Pinatubo eruption (in absolute terms), and its contribution to temperature variability. While our estimate of Pinatubo forcing is weaker than the observational estimates they cite, we believe that it is justifiable and not crucial for our conclusions regarding the estimate of ECS and how it has been affected by the hiatus period.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Physical Resource Theory, Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96, Gothenburg, Sweden

    Daniel J. A. Johansson

  2. Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, 80305, Boulder, USA

    Brian C. O'Neill & Claudia Tebaldi

  3. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96, Gothenburg, Sweden

    Olle Häggström

Authors
  1. Daniel J. A. Johansson
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  2. Brian C. O'Neill
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  3. Claudia Tebaldi
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  4. Olle Häggström
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Correspondence to Daniel J. A. Johansson.

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Johansson, D., O'Neill, B., Tebaldi, C. et al. Reply to 'Volcanic effects on climate'. Nature Clim Change 6, 4–5 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2861

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