Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Clouds and temperature drive dynamic changes in tropical flower production

Nature Climate Change volume 3, pages 838–842 (2013)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Tropical forests are incredibly dynamic, showing rapid and longer-term changes in growth, mortality and net primary productivity1,2,3. Tropical species may be highly sensitive to temperature increases associated with climate change because of their narrow thermal tolerances. However, at the ecosystem scale the competing effects of temperature, light and precipitation on tropical forest productivity have been difficult to assess. Here we quantify cloudiness over the past several decades to investigate how clouds, together with temperature and precipitation, affect flower production in two contrasting tropical forests. Our results show that temperature, rather than clouds, is critically important to tropical forest flower production. Warmer temperatures increased flower production over seasonal, interannual and longer timescales, contrary to recent evidence that some tropical forests are already near their temperature threshold4,5. Clouds were primarily important seasonally, and limited production in a seasonally dry forest but enhanced production in an ever-wet forest. A long-term increase in flower production at the seasonally dry forest is not driven by clouds and instead may be tied to increasing temperatures. These relationships show that tropical forest productivity, which is not widely thought to be controlled by temperature, is indeed sensitive to small temperature changes (1–4°C) across multiple timescales.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Empirical relationships between flower production with clouds and temperature.
Figure 2: Long-term trends in flower production (solid line) and maximum temperature (dotted line) at BCI from 1987 to 2009.
Figure 3: Seasonal and interannual variation in cloudiness.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Nemani, R. R. et al. Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Science 300, 1560–1563 (2003).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Phillips, O. L., Lewis, S. L., Baker, T. R., Chao, K-J. & Higuchi, N. The changing Amazon forest. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 363, 1819–1827 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Lewis, S. L., Malhi, Y. & Phillips, O. L. Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 359, 437–462 (2004).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Clark, D. A., Piper, S. C., Keeling, C. D. & Clark, D. B. Tropical rain forest tree growth and atmospheric carbon dynamics linked to interannual temperature variation during 1984–2000. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 5852–5857 (2003).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Doughty, C. E. & Goulden, M. L. Are tropical forests near a high temperature threshold? J. Geophys. Res. 113, 1–12 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Saugier, B., Roy, J. & Mooney, H. A. Estimations of global terrestrial productivity: Converging on a single number? Terrest. Glob. Product. 543–557 (2001).

  7. Dirzo, R. & Raven, P. H. Global state of biodiversity and loss. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 28, 137–167 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Kingsolver, J. G. The well temperatured biologist. Am. Natural. 101, 755–768 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Janzen, D. H. Why mountain passes are higher in the tropics. Am. Natural. 174, 233–249 (1967).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Root, T. L., Price, J. T., Hall, K. R. & Schneider, S. H. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421, 57–60 (2003).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Parmesan, C. Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Glob. Change Biol. 13, 1860–1872 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Wielicki, B. A. et al. Evidence for large decadal variability in the tropical mean radiative energy budget. Science 295, 841–844 (2002).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Graham, E. A., Mulkey, S. S., Kitajima, K., Phillips, N. G. & Wright, S. J. Cloud cover limits net CO2 uptake and growth of a rainforest tree during tropical rainy seasons. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 572–576 (2003).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Huete, A. R. et al. Amazon rainforests green-up with sunlight in dry season. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, 2–5 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Wright, S. J. & Calderón, O. Seasonal, El Niño and longer term changes in flower and seed production in a moist tropical forest. Ecol. Lett. 9, 35–44 (2006).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Zimmerman, J. K., Wright, S. J., Calderón, O., Pagan, M. A. & Paton, S. Flowering and fruiting phenologies of seasonal and aseasonal neotropical forests: The role of annual changes in irradiance. J. Trop. Ecol. 23, 231–251 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Clark, D. A. Sources or sinks? The responses of tropical forests to current and future climate and atmospheric composition. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 359, 477–491 (2004).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Malhi, Y., Doughty, C. & Galbraith, D. The allocation of ecosystem net primary productivity in tropical forests. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 366, 3225–3245 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Roderick, M., Farquhar, G., Berry, S. & Noble, I. On the direct effect of clouds and atmospheric particles on the productivity and structure of vegetation. Oecologia 129, 21–30 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Hollinger, D. Y., Kelliher, F. M., Byers, J. N., Hunt, J. E. & Mcseveny, T. M. Carbon dioxide exchange between an undisturbed old-growth temperate forest and the atmosphere. Ecology 75, 134–150 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Min, Q. Retrievals of thin cloud optical depth from a multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer. J. Geophys. Res. 109, 1–10 (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Wright, S. J. & Cornejo, F. H. Seasonal drought and leaf fall in a tropical forest. Ecology 71, 1165–1175 (1990).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Cavelier, J., Wright, S. J. & Santamaria, J. Effects of irrigation on litterfall, fine root biomass and production in a semideciduous lowland forest in Panama. Plant Soil 211, 207–213 (1999).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Nepstad, D. C., Tohver, I. M., Ray, D., Moutinho, P. & Cardinot, G. Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an Amazon forest. Ecology 88, 2259–2269 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Phillips, O. L. et al. Drought sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest. Science 323, 1344–1347 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

  27. Raich, J. W., Russell, A. E. & Vitousek, P. M. Primary productivity and ecosystem development along an elevational gradient on Mauna Loa, Hawai’i. Ecology 78, 707–721 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  28. Berry, J. A. & Bjorkman, O. Photosynthetic response and adaptation to temperature in higher plants. Annu. Rev. Plant Physiol. 31, 491–543 (1980).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Foster, R. B. in The Ecology of a Tropical Forest Seasonal Rhythms and Long-term Changes (eds Leigh, E. G., Rand, A. S. & Windsor, D. M.) 151–172 (Smithsonian, 1982).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Clark, D. B., Clark, D. A. & Oberbauer, S. F. Annual wood production in a tropical rain forest in NE Costa Rica linked to climatic variation but not to increasing CO2 . Glob. Change Biol. 16, 747–759 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank K. Knapp at NOAA NCDC for providing a beta version of the full GridSat data set, and D. K. Okamoto for input on statistical analyses, and are also grateful to H.G.B. This work was conducted as a part of the Forecasting Phenology Working Group supported by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), a Center funded by the NSF (Grant #EF-0553768), the University of California, Santa Barbara, and the State of California. The BCI portion of the study was supported by funds from the Environmental Sciences Program and the Center for Tropical Forest Science of the Smithsonian Institution. At Luquillo research was supported by NSF grant DEB-0639393 and by NSF funds (BSR-8811902, DEB-9411973, DEB-008538, DEB-0218039 and DEB-0620910) to the Luquillo Long-Term Ecological Research Program. S.P. was a Postdoctoral Associate supported by NCEAS. E.M.W. was supported by the NSERC CREATE training programme in biodiversity research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA

    Stephanie Pau

  2. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California 93101, USA

    Stephanie Pau & James Regetz

  3. Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z4, Canada

    Elizabeth M. Wolkovich

  4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, USA

    Benjamin I. Cook

  5. Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York 10964, USA

    Benjamin I. Cook

  6. Institute for Tropical Ecosystem Studies, University of Puerto Rico, 00931, Puerto Rico

    Christopher J. Nytch & Jess K. Zimmerman

  7. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Ancón 0843-03092, Panama

    S. Joseph Wright

Authors
  1. Stephanie Pau
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Elizabeth M. Wolkovich
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Benjamin I. Cook
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Christopher J. Nytch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. James Regetz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Jess K. Zimmerman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. S. Joseph Wright
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

S.P., B.I.C., E.M.W. and S.J.W. developed and designed the primary analyses. S.P. and J.R. analysed satellite data and developed cloud detection algorithms. J.K.Z., C.J.N. and S.J.W. curated and assisted with interpretation of the flower production and meteorological data. S.P. performed all analyses and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. All authors discussed the results and helped edit the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stephanie Pau.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Pau, S., Wolkovich, E., Cook, B. et al. Clouds and temperature drive dynamic changes in tropical flower production. Nature Clim Change 3, 838–842 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1934

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1934

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing