1. Golden Toad Laboratory for Conservation, Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve and Tropical Science Center, Santa Elena, Puntarenas 5655-73, Costa Rica
2. Museo de Zoología, Centro de Biodiversidad y Ambiente, Escuela de Biología, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Avenida 12 de Octubre 1076 y Roca, Apartado 17-01-2184, Quito, Ecuador
3. Department of Environmental Science, Barnard College, Columbia University, 3009 Broadway, New York, New York 10027, USA
4. Center for Climate Studies Research, University of Tokyo, Kombaba, 4-6-1, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan
5. Laboratorio de Biogeografía, Escuela de Geografía, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales, Universidad de Los Andes, Apartado 116, Mérida 5101-A, Venezuela
6. Council for International Educational Exchange, Monteverde, Puntarenas 5655-26, Costa Rica
7. Escuela de Biología, Universidad de Costa Rica, San Pedro, Costa Rica
8. Texas Memorial Museum and Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, USA
9. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2E3, Canada
10. Department of Geography, 3611 Ellison Hall, University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA
11. NatureServe, Monteverde, Puntarenas 5655-75, Costa Rica
12. †Present address: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queen's Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK

Correspondence to: J. Alan Pounds¹ Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to J.A.P. (Email: goldtoad@racsa.co.cr).

Abstract

As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.

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