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Growth around puberty as predictor of adult obesity

European Journal of Clinical Nutrition volume 62, pages 1405–1411 (2008)Cite this article

Abstract

Objectives:

To contribute to the early risk identification of adult obesity, the anthropometric development in the first 23 years of life as a potential predictor for adult obesity was assessed. To identify the period (7–11 years, 11–16 years and 16–23 years) and type of anthropometric measure difference (weight, height and body mass index (BMI) gains) accounting for the best prediction of obesity at 33 years.

Subjects/Methods:

A total of 4952 members of the 1958 British birth cohort with full information on anthropometric measures. Follow-up examinations at 7, 11, 16, 23 and 33 years were analyzed with receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs).

Results:

Overall 505 cohort members (10.2%) were obese at 33 years. BMI and weight gains between 7 and 11 years were the best-observed predictors for obesity at 33 years with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69; 0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71; 0.76), respectively. Height gain failed as a significant predictor at any lifetime interval. BMI gain between 7 and 11 years yielded a positive predictive value of 20% (95% CI: 19; 21) compared to 19% (95% CI: 18; 20) for weight gain. The prediction of BMI and weight gains between 7 and 11 years seemed to be unrelated to sex and the onset of puberty.

Conclusions:

High weight or BMI gain from 7 to 11 years should be considered as risk factor of later obesity. These predictors combined with others might allow for targeting preventive measures at a high-risk sub-population.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the Centre for Longitudinal Studies for the data and the referees for helpful comments on the draft. This study was supported by LMU innovative research priority project MC-Health (sub-project I).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Health and Social Care Research, King's College London, London, UK

    A M Toschke

  2. Division of Epidemiology, Institute of Social Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich, Germany

    A M Toschke, S Rückinger & R von Kries

  3. Vestische Hospital for Children and Adolescents, University of Witten/Herdecke, Germany

    T Reinehr

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  1. A M Toschke
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  2. S Rückinger
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  3. T Reinehr
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  4. R von Kries
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Correspondence to A M Toschke.

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Toschke, A., Rückinger, S., Reinehr, T. et al. Growth around puberty as predictor of adult obesity. Eur J Clin Nutr 62, 1405–1411 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.ejcn.1602888

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