1. ¹Health Economics and Outcomes Research, i3 Innovus, Burlington, Ontario, Canada
2. ²Health Outcomes, GlaxoSmithKline, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UK
3. ³Departments of Epidemiology and Oncology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
4. ⁴Clinical Development, GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Rixensart, Belgium
5. ⁵Clinical Operational Research Unit, University College London, London, UK
6. ⁶i3 Innovus, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UK
7. ⁷Centre for Health Economics, University of York, Heslington, York, UK

Correspondence: N Ferko, E-mail: nferko@i3innovus.com

Received 2 August 2006; Revised 30 October 2006; Accepted 1 November 2006; Published online 5 December 2006.

Abstract

To predict the public health impact on cervical disease by introducing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in the United Kingdom, we developed a mathematical model that can be used to reflect the impact of vaccination in different countries with existing screening programmes. Its use is discussed in the context of the United Kingdom. The model was calibrated with published data. The impact of vaccination on cervical cancer and deaths, precancerous lesions and screening outcomes were estimated for a vaccinated cohort of 12-year-old girls, among which it is estimated that there would be a reduction of 66% in the prevalence of high-grade precancerous lesions and a 76% reduction in cervical cancer deaths. Estimates for various other measures of the population effects of vaccination are also presented. We concluded that it is feasible to forecast the potential effects of HPV vaccination in the context of an existing national screening programme. Results suggest a sizable reduction in the incidence of cervical cancer and related deaths. Areas for future research include investigation of the beneficial effects of HPV vaccination on infection transmission and epidemic dynamics, as well as HPV-related neoplasms in other sites.